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John Brubaker's top MLB betting picks and best bets for today's MLB games on 4/5/23. His free picks against the spread, game totals, NRFI, and other various baseball bets.
Happy Wednesday RotoBallers, and welcome to the 2023 MLB season! As a washed baseball player myself, it's simply not enough to get my fix in a men's league. That's why I'm super stoked to be back to provide some MLB picks once again this year. We had a rough regular season in the articles in 2022 but bounced back significantly (no pun intended), going 17-6-4 en route to +6.71 units in the postseason. Let's hope that postseason success rolls into 2023.
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If you're new or just a refresher to those who read my articles last season, I'm John Brubaker. I've been betting on MLB baseball games for five years now, and this is my third MLB season working with the great folks at RotoBaller. I've created my own betting model to help me create and identify value on run lines, totals, and money lines, among many other things! In this article, I'll provide my favorite betting picks for the MLB games on Wednesday, April 5, 2023. I'm continuously working to improve my models to make them more accurate, and as the season progresses, I'll share the data I have on my personal Twitter @LucidMediaDFS. Feel free to give me a follow if you haven't already, and do not hesitate to ask any questions! My DMs are always open. With all of that said, let's break down some baseball games.
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LucidMedia's 2023 MLB Betting Picks
2023 Regular Season: 4-2-0 (+1.2 units)
Today's MLB Betting Picks - Rays @ Nationals
O/U: 8 | Moneyline: WSH +210
TB: Shane McClanahan | WSH: Patrick Corbin
We finished 1-1 on Monday, ending up on the wrong side of the Cubs/Reds "slugfest." We'll bounce back, starting with a first five play in the Rays/Nationals showdown in our nation's capital.
The visiting Rays are sending ace Shane McClanahan to the mound. McClanahan was excellent against the Tigers on Opening Day, tossing six scoreless innings while striking out six. He'll take on a Nationals lineup that did touch up southpaw Josh Fleming last night, but you're out of your mind if you think Josh Fleming and Shane McClanahan are in any way similar. They project to a .272 wOBA and 27.4% hard contact rate as a team.
Conversely, the Nationals will be sending "ace" Patrick Corbin to the mound. I mentioned in previous articles last season that I respect Patrick Corbin and his ability to just eat innings, albeit for a bad team. With that said, though, he's one of the easiest fades in all of sports right now. He allowed four runs (two earned) in three innings while allowing seven hits and walking three. He'll take on a Rays lineup that projects to a .325 wOBA and 41.19% hard contact rate.
I'm not overthinking this, one of the best pitchers in baseball and a lineup that hits lefties well -- against Patrick Corbin. I'm grabbing Rays F5 -0.5 on DraftKings at -155.
Pick: Rays F5 -0.5 (-155) DraftKings Sportsbook, 1.2 units to win 1 unit
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Today's MLB Betting Picks - Twins @ Marlins
O/U: 7.5 | Moneyline: MIA -110
MIN: Pablo Lopez | MIA: Jesus Luzardo
We'll head down to Miami for the second play on this slate. It'll be Pablo Lopez's homecoming early on this season, as the righty was traded from Miami to Minnesota this offseason. We'll take a look at an NRFI in this one.
Lopez was mediocre in the first inning at LoanDepot Park last season, hovering around .500 for most of the year. He never faced his former club, though, and Miami doesn't have much to offer. While Jazz Chisholm Jr. and the Marlins' big acquisition in the Lopez trade, Luis Arraez, do offer some cause for concern, I'm not sweating them here.
On the other side, the home team Marlins will send Jesus Luzardo to the mound. We already took a Luzardo NRFI this season, which ended up going well for us. We'll look into it again.
While the Twins do have some potential pop at the top of the lineup in Byron Buxton and Carlos Correa, I think Luzardo will handle business. He's been so good dating back to the middle of last season, and it's worth noting that he had a 1.98 ERA when going through the lineup for the first time in 2022.
We're getting a fair line at -148 on FanDuel. While I do like this play, NRFIs are so volatile that at this price, I'm not willing to lay more than one unit here.
Pick: First Inning Under 0.5 Runs (-148) FanDuel Sportsbook, 1 unit to win 0.68 units
Good luck, RotoBallers, and follow my Twitter for more plays!
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