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The contest we will focus on in this article is the FantasyBook Over/Under DFS Props contest, specifically for the Super Bowl, which features the Kansas City Chiefs versus the Philadelphia Eagles. FantasyBook allows you to build a two-to-five pick based on their fantasy points projection and pick over or under the projected total. If you get all of your picks correct, you can win up to 18x your buy-in.
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RIVAL Over/Under Picks - Super Bowl
Before we get to the matchup, I thought it would be an ideal time to take inventory of the previous bets to see if there's anything we can learn for this week. I've listed them below.
- Week 13 Bills at Patriots - 2/4 correct (missed two overs by fewer than five points)
- Week 14 Patriots at Cardinals - 1/4 correct (missed two overs from players who suffered an injury, missed one under)
- Week 16 Saturday Slate - 5/5 correct (18X payout)
- Week 17 Bills at Bengals - bet canceled
- Week 18 Saturday Slate - 1/4 correct (missed three overs by fewer than five points)
- Wild Card Weekend Cowboys at Buccaneers - 0/4 correct (missed two under bets and two over bets)
- Divisional Round Saturday Slate - 3/5 correct (two overs missed, one from injury and one by 3.5 points)
- AFC Championships - 3/4 correct (missed one under)
Total = 15/30
In total, 11 missed bets were from players the over was selected for, and only four were from the under. It reinforces the approach of taking the under more than the over primarily because injuries frequently impact a player's performance, along with weather or role changes. With that in mind, let's move to the game.
The Chiefs are back in the Super Bowl for the third time in four years, meaning most of their squad is familiar with everything it entails. Meanwhile, the Eagles haven't made it this far since 2008, so only eight players have experience in the Super Bowl. Aside from that experience, the matchup pits one of the league's best passing offenses, Kansas City, against one of the league's best pass defenses, Philadelphia.
Travis Kelce OVER 20.94 fantasy points
If there's a player to count on in this game, it's Kelce. He's been absolutely dominant in the playoffs, historically and this year. He has 21 receptions for 176 yards and three touchdowns over their two playoff contests, showcasing his incredible talent. He's undoubtedly the No. 1 target in the offense, which will be without Mecole Hardman, and lacks a true No. 2 receiving option. Additionally, the Eagles have a deadly pass rush, ranking No. 1 by PFF pass-rush grade and No. 1 in pass-rush win rate, forcing Patrick Mahomes to get the ball out quickly to Kelce and the backfield.
He finished 0.14 points under this line last game, primarily because Marquez Valdes-Scantling stole the show in the second half, but he crushed the line with 35.8 points against the Jaguars. While expecting another 30-plus point performance might be asking a bit much, clearing 21 points is very realistic. Take the over on the best tight end in the league, who catches passes from the best quarterback in the league, to come up big.
Marquez Valdes-Scantling UNDER 12.98 fantasy points
As mentioned above, Valdes-Scantling was extremely impressive, finishing with six catches for 116 yards and a score. However, that was under optimal conditions. The defense was slowing down Kelce, Valdes-Scantling was able to beat the Cincinnati secondary, and Hardman, Kadarius Toney, JuJu Smith-Schuster, and Justin Watson were all sidelined before or during the game. The Eagles have an elite secondary led by James Bradberry and Darius Slay. Their pass defense ranks No. 1 by DVOA and No. 2 by PFF coverage, making it unlikely he has the same success against this unit. Furthermore, while Hardman is out, the other three wideouts are all suiting up, increasing the competition for targets.
Aside from his outlier outing against the Bengals, he's only cleared this line on one other occasion this season, which came back in Week 7 when he went over 100 receiving yards. Similarly, he produced 30 yards or fewer in six straight games before his one-hit-wonder. He also had three or fewer receptions during that stretch. Take the under on Valdes-Scantling, who is no match for the Philadelphia defense.
JuJu Smith-Schuster UNDER 15.34 fantasy points
The thought process persists here with Smith-Schuster, who, in addition to being impacted by many of the same factors that negatively affect Valdes-Scantling, is also recovering from a knee injury he suffered against Cincinnati. While he is likely the most capable member of this lackluster receiving corps, his blow-up games have been few and far between. The last time he scored more than 15 fantasy points was in Week 15 against Houston. He had two quality games in Weeks 14 and 15 but otherwise beat the line just three times all season.
Take the under on Smith-Schuster, who is also in for a tough day against the Eagles cornerbacks.
Jerick McKinnon UNDER 12.04 fantasy points
McKinnon saw a boost in targets in their last game, ending with four but trailed Isiah Pacheco in every statistical category. He also saw a drop in offensive snaps, playing only 39% compared to 57% for Pacheco. The pass rush and pressure Mahomes will face should create more opportunities for the backfield to catch passes, but that role has shifted to Pacheco, removing any value McKinnon had left.
His role continues to fade much as his output has. He's scored fewer than four fantasy points in each of the last two games and managed just 8.6 fantasy points the week prior with a receiving touchdown, which accounted for 7.2 of his fantasy points. Keep the train rolling by taking the under on secondary Chiefs players, including McKinnon.
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