RADIO
Davis Thompson continues to lead the way (-18) after round 2 at the American Express, making eagles on THREE of the four par 5s to go -7 on those holes alone. He has now gained +12.5 strokes on the field through two rounds which was accomplished by 14 golfers last year. Six of them went on to gain +2 strokes over the weekend, while eight of them failed to gain more than a stroke per round over the remainder of the event. With Jon Rahm sitting two shots back at -16 and looking to win his fourth event in six starts worldwide, we have an exciting weekend of golf ahead of us folks.
This article is going to take a look at showdown slates and head-to-head matchups for tomorrow's round. You can find me on Twitter an unhealthy amount of the time @TheModelManiac, if you have any questions, compliments, or insults for me. My DFS style is very ownership-centric, and more often than not this can make you feel like an unsuccessful DFS player, but every now and then when a sneaky, low owned golfer comes through for you, it is all worth it.
The general logic to showdown has been to target golfers who played well the day before and particularly those who hit their irons well. This makes sense as you want to roster players who are playing good golf right now. These players will be higher owned and chalkier than golfers in the same price range, who had an off day, particularly with their irons. These are the golfers I am gravitated towards, as they could very easily bounce the following day at half the ownership.
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Ownership Analysis
These are the color codes we will be using to identify who we want to target. Think of it as a traffic light with four colors. Stop at mega chalk and go when we see leverage that makes sense.
By taking a look at yesterday's ownership, we can get an idea of where people will be willing to go in R3.
- Mega chalk: A popular player who played well yesterday.
- Chalk: a) A popular player who played okay yesterday b) A less popular player who played well yesterday.
- Pivots: a) A popular player who played poorly yesterday b) A less popular player who played okay yesterday.
- Leverage: A less popular player who played poorly yesterday.
Top Points Scorers
A very healthy blend of all three courses is in this graphic. However, it's tough to ignore six of the eight best scores came from that elite rotation of players who played the easy Nicklaus Tournament course. After playing this well we can expect a lot of ownership to flock to that recent form, but we have seen significant ownership discount on golfers who have played the Stadium Course, which has more danger, but still very scorable (see highest owned golfers).
Highest Owned Golfers
See what we mean about the ownership discount on the Stadium Course? Nobody playing SC was more than 10% owned. My prediction is a lot of ownership on the SC tomorrow pivots to the other two courses, except for Rahm, Xander and Davis Thompson. Unlikely that Rahm cracks 40% ownership again, but he will most likely be 30%+.
Lowest Owned Golfers Who Scored 50+ Points
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Round 3 Power Rankings
These golfers can all be considered for cash games or double-ups. This event is really fun to exercise your game theory muscles. Five of the top six golfers in my power rankings tee off on the Stadium Course tomorrow. Six of the highest priced golfers also play the stadium course. How do we approach this.
PLEASE NOTE: If you want the entire showdown cheat sheet, it's free to download here.
The Chalk Squad
These golfers should be the most owned tomorrow based on their round 2 performance.
$10,000: Scottie Scheffler was the eight highest scorer on the slate in R2. Outside of Tom Kim, Scheffler stands the best chance to outscore Rahm tomorrow and will likely be 2/3s of Rahm's ownership. We haven't played Rahm this week yet and it has burnt us, although our pivots did okay in R2. It's a single round of golf and Rahm's ownership tomorrow provides a fantastic opportunity to get aggressive and potentially eliminate a third of the contest if he has an average round.
$9,000: Tom Kim is $100 cheaper than Sungjae Im who is at the same score and will be playing the easier La Quinta tomorrow. I would believe that given their similar skillsets and form, the public will be attracted to the golfer who plays the easier course, leaving Kim somewhere in the mid-teens hopefully. His game is ideal for Stadium Course as he is a hyper accurate ball striker, which this course rewards.
$8,000: Nobody. If the public isn't clicking Sungjae, they will be clicking Sam Burns who is another one of the better players not playing SC.
$7,000: Nobody.
$6,000: Nobody.
The Pivot People
These guys find themselves in the middle of the leaderboard. Their round did not go entirely according to plan, and we are banking on them to bounce back today.
$10,000: Nobody.
$9,000: Tony Finau has the capability to be the leading scorer tomorrow, but his position of T34 won't see him nearly as popular as the other golfers in the $9K range above. Look how that power rank sticks out below. Remember, the public like to click golfers at the top of the leaderboard and Tony is not there.
$8,000: Nobody.
$7,000: Chris Kirk finds himself as the highest ranked pivot person and also plays SC tomorrow. There are a lot of golfers with better long term baselines in the leverage lads section below, which is where we are going to make our money.
$6,000: Nobody.
The Leverage Lads
The lowest-owned golfers who should give us the most leverage in a DFS Showdown slate.
$10,000:
$9,000: Will Zalatoris and Cameron Young are two of the few guys in the $9K range not playing SC either and may land up being less of a leverage play than we imagine. Their T59 placement tag should balance out the ownership that will pivot to them, Burns and Sungjae who play LQ and NT. Zalatoris is due for a spike round and he took care of business for us in R3 at the TOC. Let's do it again.
$8,000: Tom Hoge finds himself coming off a hot R2 and one of the few golfers in the $8k range playing decent golf and not playing SC (I think he will come in higher than his R2 14%, though). Brian Harman (puke) and Cameron Davis (puke again) are probably two guys who nobody wants to click after very gross golf so far. Their long term baselines are really impressive and they are both playing easier courses with less danger. #HighRiskHighReward
$7,000: Emiliano Grillo (sob), Davis Riley, Harris English and Mark Hubbard.
$6,000: Satoshi Kodaira, Brendon Todd and Sebastian Munoz
R3 Matchups
Ryan Brehm +100 vs Jonathan Byrd (Ceasars)
Ryan Brehm seems to have figured something out during the Christmas break. He ended his 2023 season having gained strokes in only one (+0.38) of 14 rounds. However, in his last 10 rounds spanning from TOC, Sony and first two rounds of the Amex, he has gained strokes in seven of those rounds. His final round of the TOC was a disaster, losing -9.4 strokes which could be why we see a line like this as his aggregated strokes gained could appear as if nothing has changed.
Jonathan Byrd is currently even for the event which puts him T133, while Brehm is -9 and T21, having gained +2 strokes in both rounds. They will be playing La Quinta tomorrow which should suit Brehm's big-hitting game better than the tighter Stadium Course. Brehm's game has clearly been part of some sort of revival and hopefully we can revive our bankroll with him. Check his strokes gained total since the new year(below). Bear in mind that's across four different courses, which is even more appealing as his game appears to be travelling really well, albeit only over a 10-round sample.
Good luck this week and as always, may the odds be ever in your favor!!!
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