RIVAL Fantasy - NFL FantasyBook Over/Under DFS Prop Picks: Wild Card Weekend MNF

January 16, 2023

Josh Constantinou's NFL Over/Under DFS prop picks for RIVAL fantasy contests on Wild Card Weekend MNF. Sign up for RIVAL fantasy and use his NFL DFS prop picks to win money.

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The contest we will focus on in this article is the FantasyBook Over/Under DFS Props contest, specifically for the Wild Card Weekend Monday Night Football game featuring the Dallas Cowboys at the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. FantasyBook allows you to build a two-to-five pick based on their fantasy points projection and pick over or under the projected total. If you get all of your picks correct, you can win up to 18x your buy-in.

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RIVAL FantasyBook NFL Over/Under Picks for Wild Card Weekend MNF

It's an intriguing matchup between two very different teams. One with a loaded roster who nearly earned the No. 1 seed but whose quarterback has been shaky. While the other was fortunate to play in a terrible division, landing a home game in the first round, but possesses the greatest quarterback of all time. Regardless of which way this one breaks, there are a couple of talented players we can take advantage of while fading the others.  

Leonard Fournette OVER 14.25 fantasy points

One of those players we can put our trust in is Fournette, who has already shown off his playoff heroics on the Bucs' 2020 title run. He's incredibly reliable, with a valuable pass-catching role as the check-down king. It hasn't been all roses to end the season, but if you remove the last game where they rested their starters, he has four or more receptions in five straight games, averaging nearly six receptions per outing. It provides a solid baseline in a full-PPR format, especially considering Tom Brady will need to get the ball out of his hands quickly against the Cowboys' elite pass rush that ranked second in win rate.

Additionally, while the Buccaneers struggle to run the ball, they are effective in the red zone, converting on 61% of their attempts in the regular season, resulting in 15 successful trips. It's another beneficial role Fournette will have. Take the over for "playoff Lenny" to show up big.

Julio Jones UNDER 7.04 fantasy points

The savvy veteran has made an impact from time to time but has been mostly uninvolved. He's 34-years-old, and they have so many other options to throw to in this offense across all positions. He's been on the injury report often and hasn't been able to return to his old form. He's missed the line every week since Week 14 when he scored 8.8 fantasy points, barely surpassing it. He has two receptions for 25 yards in his past two outings combined, giving way to other younger options like Russell Gage.

Jones may enjoy a trip to the next round, but it won't be because of his contributions. Take the under on the future Hall of Famer.

CeeDee Lamb OVER 17.67 fantasy points

The offense will go as far as Lamb can take them. He's had an incredible breakout season with 107 receptions for 1,359 yards and nine touchdowns. You would have expected him to find pay dirt a few more times, but his overall numbers prove he's one of the best. Entering last week's collapse against Washington, he had three consecutive 100-yard games. He also hauled in seven or more passes in each of them, with double-digit receptions twice.

Despite a brutal performance from Dak Prescott, he almost hit the line last week. Plus, he cleared it three straight times before that. Furthermore, Tampa Bay has allowed the eighth-most points to wide receivers this season, even with a softer schedule. Take the over on Lamb, who will be moved all over the field and light up the defense.

Dak Prescott UNDER 17.65 fantasy points

Atop the list of reasons this team has slowed down is Prescott. There's no denying he has played poorly for several weeks, tossing at least one interception in nine of his last 10 games, totaling 13 during that stretch. Outside of the two shootouts with Philadelphia and Jacksonville, he's been below this mark in his past five contests, failing to exceed 15 fantasy points in three of those. Although the Buccaneers have been vulnerable against receivers, they've been better against quarterbacks, allowing the 15th-most points, they're 15th in pass DVOA, according to Football Outsiders, and eighth in pass coverage, according to Pro Football Focus.

The other factor to consider is the inability of this team to win in the playoffs. Prescott has a 1-3 record with six touchdowns and three interceptions, averaging 262 yards per game. The Cowboys' best shot to win this game is their defense, rushing attack, and Lamb. Take the under on Prescott.

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