RADIO
Brandon Wampler's top DraftKings and FanDuel NHL DFS value plays and research for December 29th, 2022 including DFS analysis for goalies, power plays and stacks.
Welcome, RotoBallers! If you do not know me, my name is Brandon and I write both The First-Serve and The Kick-Off for Tennis and Soccer respectively. If you have not checked those out, make sure you do! It is the return of the NHL season which means it's time to sharpen our MLB skills and partake in NHL DFS! As always, I'll give you the best tools to succeed and the info you need to build the best lineups possible for your GPP and cash game NHL contests on both DraftKings and FanDuel.
Today I'll be bringing you my NHL lineup picks, analysis, and advice for NHL DFS contests on DraftKings and FanDuel Thursday, 29th, 2022 at 7:00 PM EST. Be sure to also check out our awesome NHL tools including our Lineup Optimizer, Research Station, Projections, and DFS Cheat Sheets!
If you have any questions on today's slate, bankroll management, GPP strategy, Cash game strategy, or anything else don’t hesitate to email me at [email protected] or via Twitter @df_solutions or in our premium slack chat. Good luck, RotoBallers!
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NHL DFS Analysis and Picks for 12/29/22
The roster freeze is officially over and now we begin the crazy portion of the season with many teams climbing up the standings and others falling down the standing, as well as many teams assessing whether they should buy or sell heading into the crucial period of the season. Tonight we are rolling with another large 11-game slate with a few teams playing on a back-to-back: Detroit and Montreal. The currently live top-3 highest implied team totals are: Florida with 4.3, Islanders with 4.1 and Toronto with 3.9 goals. I will do my best in guiding you through this eleven-game slate on DraftKings and FanDuel starting at 7:00 p.m. EST.
DISCLOSURE: Make sure to monitor the news feed and play at your own risk
NHL DFS Goalies
Ilya Sorokin- DK $8.2K || FD $7.7K
Opponent - Columbus Blue Jackets
There are two big things going into this matchup, first, Patrik Laine is in COVID Protocols and second, Sorokin just got done holding the Penguins to one goal on Tuesday. Despite the Islanders' streaky and inconsistent play, Sorokin has been their backbone all season, holding his name out there as a Vezina candidate. After going on a six-game losing streak, Sorokin is back in the win column with back-to-back wins and allowing just 2 goals in that timeframe. There could not be any better of a matchup tonight in net.
Others To Consider (Cash/GPP): Anderson (DK $7.8K || FD $7.3K), Kahkonen (DK $7.7K || FD $6.8K)
Centers
Tage Thompson-DK $8.8K || FD $10.6K
Opponent - Detroit Red Wings
After a little layover – in their own city –, the Sabres are back in action and that means one thing and one thing only. It is Tage Thompson time. Detroit is playing on the back-half of their back-to-back after miraculously pulling off a 4-0 deficit comeback to win in overtime against the struggling Penguins 5-4. In Thompson’s last five games, he has 5 goals, 4 assists and 22 shots. Alex Nedeljkovic is the expected starter for Detroit tonight and he is the second-worst goalie in Goals Saved Above Expected Per 60 when starting 5 or more games this season – -1.297 –. This is one of the best matchups on the slate.
John Tavares- DK $6.8K || FD $8.4K
Opponent - Arizona Coyotes
Tavares did not disappoint us on Tuesday when he last made the article. The center posted 1 goal and 4 shots during a 5-4 win over St Louis. Now he gets one of the best matchups a player can have, the Arizona Coyotes. As I continue to mention, the Coyotes have improved in multiple ways – helps that their best player is healthy –, however, they are still bottom ten in every meaningful stat defensively and it will prove a large test for them to hold the Maple Leafs back. This is a premium matchup at a manageable salary for less ownership than what teammate Austin Matthews will bring in.
Others To Consider (CASH/GPP): Nelson (DK $6.1K || FD $8.6K), Gaudreau (DK $4.2K || FD $5K)
NHL DFS Wings
Vladamir Tarasenko- DK $5.4K || FD $6K
Opponent - Chicago Blackhawks
We will continue the trend of value plays in prime matchups. The Blues’ second line is back together and they are clicking on all cylinders once again. Over Tarasenko’s last five games, he has 1 goal, 6 assists and 17 shots. The shots are nowhere where we would like them, but that is okay for now. The Blackhawks are the third-worst team in Shots Against Per 60 – 33.35 – over the season. They are also the second-worst team in Scoring Chances Against Per 60 – 32.75 – and the fourth-worst team in Goals Against Per 60 – 3.13 –, both stats over the season. Only the smarter DFS players will look this far down the roster for matchups like this when there are plenty of premium options on the board tonight.
Emil Bemstrom- DK $2.5K || FD $3K
Opponent - New York Islanders
Despite me highlighting Ilya Sorokin of the Islanders, we cannot pass up on Bemstrom who is minimum pricing on DraftKings. The winger has been recalled from the Cleveland Monsters and he will suit up in place of teammate Patrik Laine. Bemstrom last played for the Blue Jackets on November 23rd and in the five-game span, he had 1 goal, 1 assist and 8 shots. None of the production is what we need, but at minimum pricing, he is well worth the ‘punt’.
Others To Consider (CASH/GPP): M.Tkachuk (DK $7.7K || FD $9.3K), Marner (DK $7.1K || FD $8.5K)
Defense
Erik Gustafsson- DK $3.9K || FD $4.7K
Opponent - Ottawa Senators
Gustafsson was another Tuesday highlight that did not disappoint, posting 1 goal, 1 assist, 1 shot and 1 blocked shot. The defenseman is stepping into teammate John Carlson’s role while he is out indefinitely after taking a puck to the head. Gustafsson now has 5 goals, 4 assists, 16 shots and 7 blocked shots over his last five games. Production like this typically sees a much higher salary and we need to take advantage of the ‘cheaper’ salary while we have it, especially in good matchups like this.
Mark Giordano- DK $3.8K || FD $4.9K
Opponent - Arizona Coyotes
Tonight could be a night where a 3 defensemen stack is not out of the question. There are a few defensemen worth mentioning, but I cannot pass on Giordano who I also highlighted in Tuesday’s article, where he assisted 1 goal, took 1 shot and blocked 3 shots. Now he gets the best matchup on the slate against the Arizona Coyotes – aforementioned –. It is only a matter of time until Giordano truly ‘pops off’ and starts producing at his old clips with the increase in ice time.
Others To Consider (CASH/GPP): Karlsson (DK $7.8K || FD $7.8K), Colton Parayko (DK $4K || FD $5K)
NHL DFS Top Power Plays and Stacks
- TOR1
- STL1
- BUF1
- VAN1
- FLA1
- WAS1
Brandon's Stack of the Day
- STL: Buchnevich-Tarasenko-Parayko
Chalk Stack
- TOR: Nylander-Matthews-Marner
Sneaky Stack
- LA: Arvidsson-Danault-Durzi
