RIVAL Fantasy - NFL FantasyBook Over/Under DFS Prop Picks: Week 17 MNF

January 2, 2023

Josh Constantinou's NFL Over/Under DFS prop picks for RIVAL fantasy contests and Week 17 Monday Night Football. Sign up for RIVAL fantasy and use his NFL DFS prop picks to win money.

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The contest we will focus on in this article is the FantasyBook Over/Under DFS Props contest, specifically for the Monday Night Football game between the Buffalo Bills and Cincinnati Bengals, which will be a thriller. FantasyBook allows you to build a two-to-five pick based on their fantasy points projection and pick over or under the projected total. If you get all of your picks correct, you can win up to 18x your buy-in.

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RIVAL FantasyBook NFL Over/Under Picks for Week 17 Monday Night Football

Josh Allen OVER 22.82 fantasy points

After a difficult stretch that may have caused him to fall out of the MVP race, he's returned to playing at a high level. The Bills are riding a six-game winning streak, entering this game full of confidence. They're also well aware of just how important it is, which matters a lot this time of year when selecting fantasy players to trust. What helps Allen is his rushing baseline, especially in four-point quarterback scoring. Over the past three weeks, he's averaged 55 rushing yards and 0.66 rushing touchdowns per game, equivalent to 9.5 fantasy points.

If we start with that mark from above, he only needs 13.32 points passing, which requires 233 yards and one touchdown. There's a strong chance he has an even better day through the air because the over/under for this game is so high. Additionally, the Bills are third in pass rate over expectation, meaning they're more apt to pass regardless of the game script. You can expect Allen to put on a show against the Bengals and beat this line.

Joe Burrow OVER 19.83 fantasy points

Squaring off against Allen is Burrow, who is no slouch himself. Cincinnati has also won seven straight games, including an impressive win over the Chiefs. He doesn't offer the same upside on the ground that Allen does, but he is an absolute gunslinger. He's attempted 30 or more passes in every game but one this season, throwing it over 50 times twice. He currently sits fifth in the NFL in passing attempts, and the Bengals as a team are second in pass rate over expectation.

Burrow has arguably the best trio of receivers in the league, raising his opportunity for massive fantasy performances. He's bested the line in three of his past four games by 4.5 points or more each time. This matchup has shootout written all over, and the offense goes as Burrow goes, so he'll be airing it out en route to a huge day.

Tee Higgins OVER 16.02 fantasy points

Typically, you want to target the No. 1 receiver for a star quarterback, but on this team, Robin is just as capable of great games as Batman is. Higgins has scarred many fantasy managers because of his injury designation issues, resulting in two occasions where many of us felt we were misinformed, thinking he was healthy and could be trusted. That said, when healthy, which he currently is, he's been awesome.

He's averaging nearly seven receptions per game over his last six outings, plus he's found the end zone four consecutive times. He's also cleared 100 yards in three of his past five. Regarding the line, he's beaten it in four of his past five healthy contests. With so much focus on Ja'Marr Chase, take the over on Higgins, who will see easier coverage and is equally reliable.

Isaiah McKenzie UNDER 8.17 fantasy points

While it's fun to root for a high-scoring game that rains down fantasy points from the sky, not everyone will get in on the action. That leads us to one of the ancillary pieces, McKenzie, a wide receiver for the Bills. He's a player that was very involved early in the season and then disappeared for several weeks before posting a six for 96 and one line on Thanksgiving day in primetime against Detroit.

Since that game, he's caught five or fewer passes, with a high of 44 yards and no touchdowns. Furthermore, he's not been a full-time player. He played fewer than 60% of the offensive snaps in three of those games with a low of 36% last week against the Bears. He also failed to catch a pass in that contest. He hasn't hit this line in any of the past three outings, making the under a great selection.

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