RADIO
We are heading into Week 14, and the NFL season is really getting into the juicy part of the schedule. Some teams are done for the year in terms of playoff contention, but there are a ton of teams in both conferences that are still vying for those final few spots. The key part to betting on these games is going to be focusing on which teams still have something to play for and prioritizing those games. With that in mind, we'll be paying closer attention to which games we're putting our money on as the season winds down.
We finally had things break our way last week after multiple weeks of getting damn close. We went 4-1 overall with our lone loss being Jaylen Waddle’s longest reception. We had to sweat out a couple of the wins, but they count the same at the end of the day. We’re down a little over 10 units on the year, but it just takes a couple of good weeks in a row to put us in the green for the end of the season.
Before we get into this week’s picks, I just had one more piece of information to add for those that may be new here. These picks are not in any sort of order. I try to give you my confidence level in the pick in the analysis, but I also have a belief in every pick I put out that they will hit. Otherwise, I wouldn’t be wasting your time by making the play at all.
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NFL Player Prop Bets for Week 14
Jaylen Waddle
O65.5 Receiving Yards
Sportsbook: FanDuel
Odds: -114
To start this week off, we’re going to our lone loss from last week with Miami Dolphins wideout Waddle. Waddle has been dealing with the leg injury that knocked him out of last week’s loss, but he’s expected to play this week against the Los Angeles Chargers. Last week was the first time this season that Waddle failed to hit this mark in a game that quarterback Tua Tagovailoa started and finished. Granted, it didn’t help that Waddle wasn’t able to finish the game either.
This week, he draws the Chargers that have struggled on defense all year due to injuries to essentially every player on the 53-man lineup. On the year, they’re allowing around 46 yards per game to opposing WR2s, but the majority of those players aren’t playing in the offense that Miami runs. Waddle has seen at least five targets in all but one game this season, and he’s averaging 81.0 yards per game this year. As long as he starts, this mark is firmly within reach for him.
U65.5 Rushing Yards
Sportsbook: PointsBet
Odds: -115
Houston Texans running back Dameon Pierce got to run against the league’s worst rushing defenses in the Cleveland Browns a week ago, but things get a little bit more difficult this week with the Dallas Cowboys coming to town. On the year, the Cowboys are the top-ranked defense overall by DVOA, and they are eighth against the run. While they have allowed a couple of decent running outings recently, the game script is what is likely to keep Pierce in check this week.
Prior to his strong matchup last week, Pierce had missed this line in two straight games, and he’s missed it in three of his last six games. All three of those games came against teams that are in the top 10 by DVOA against the run. Dallas’ plan will likely be to bottle up Pierce and force them to win by throwing the ball, which Houston will struggle to do with two of their top wideouts ruled out for this week. Unless Pierce gets to work early with a big play or two, he could be in for a long day on the ground.
O84.5 Receiving Yards
Sportsbook: BetMGM
Odds: -115
This is quite a high bar for the second-year wideout, but Detroit Lions wide receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown is in a great spot to go over this mark this week. St. Brown has hit this mark in each of his last two outings and in three of his last four. He has eight or more targets in each of his last six games, and, despite missing time across multiple games this season, he leads his team in targets, receptions, and yards by 54, 44, and 435 respectively.
His matchup for this week is the team with the worst DVOA by a 10-2 team ever. Detroit is 13th while Minnesota is 20th despite Minnesota having five more wins on the season. On the year, Minnesota is 24th by DVOA against the pass. On the year, they’re allowing 90.8 yards per game to opposing WR1s, and they don’t have anyone that can match up with St. Brown on a snap-to-snap basis. If this turns into a shootout, ARSB could be in for a huge game this week.
Noah Gray
O10.5 Receiving Yards
Sportsbook: PointsBet
Odds: -120
This one is largely just playing on the line that I think needs adjusted where the books are sleeping. Kansas City Chiefs tight end Noah Gray is firmly the second tight end in this offense, and he’s roughly the fifth or sixth option in the passing offense at best. However, this mark is very within reach for the second-year tight end this week. On the season, Gray has hit this mark in eight of his 10 games, and he’s had two games where he finished with 10 yards in blowout wins where the team was running the ball.
The Denver Broncos have been one of the league’s best defenses as they’re seventh overall and fourth against the pass by DVOA. However, they gradually wear down over the course of a game because their offense struggles to stay on the field. The Chiefs’ defense has been strong this season, and they could force more of those struggles out of the Broncos’ offense. This really only requires one reception out of Gray, and, with the other weapons around the offense, he could slip through for one decent gain.
Nick Chubb
O72.5 Rushing Yards
Sportsbook: FanDuel
Odds: -114
Last week, the Cleveland Browns and running back Nick Chubb scored zero points as an offense, and they were carried to victory by their defense and special teams. However, Chubb remains the key cog in this offense as he had 80 or more yards for the ninth time in 12 games last week. Additionally, in the games where he’s gotten 80 or more yards, he’s gotten 17 or more carries. On the year, they’re 5-3 in games where he has 17 or more carries. Just a few weeks ago, against this Cincinnati Bengals defense, he had 23 carries for 101 yards and two touchdowns.
Cincinnati is 10th against the pass, but they’re 16th against the run. They held Derrick Henry of the Tennessee Titans in check two weeks ago, but they gave up 22 carries for 117 yards last week to the Kansas City Chiefs’ top two rushers. Ultimately, this play will hinge on what the Bengals sell out to stop. If they force Cleveland to throw the ball, Chubb could struggle, but I think he gets the volume necessary in what I expect to be a tight game for him to get to this mark.
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