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After only two NBA games last night and with the sports world having their attention firmly fixed on the NFL and the World Series Thursday night, we get TWELVE NBA contests tonight and no competition for our attention from those other sports either!
It's been a solid week for bets and Wednesday night we finished 4-2 with the misses being Portland failing to cover by one point and the Pelicans falling in overtime to the Lakers after being up three with one second to go and allowing a game-tying shot at the buzzer. Sometimes that's just how the cookie crumbles and I still think things are looking up as I am a firm believer in process > results. But hey, when you make betting recommendations you better get the results right more often than not, too, right?
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Thunder Dan's NBA Best Bets
- 2022-2023 Overall Record: 23-20
- Against the Spread: 10-8
- Game/Team Totals: 4-6
- Moneyline Parlay: 4-3
- Teasers: 5-2
NBA Betting Picks: Against the Spread
Brooklyn Nets (+2.5) @ Washington Wizards (227 total)
I am attacking some "good" teams today with bets or at least teams that are perceived to be good by the general public or NBA fans less crazy and stat-obsessed as I am. The Nets have been a dumpster fire on the court and things have been, well, for the lack of a better word - "interesting" off the court as well. They fired Steve Nash and replaced him with Ime Udoka, who was the Celtics' coach up until right before the season when he was suspended. With Kyrie Irving now suspended and his future with the team in question, Ben Simmons out yet again with an injury, and Seth Curry still potentially out, too, this is a one-man show now in Brooklyn for Kevin Durant.
And as good as Kevin Durant is at basketball, no man is an island, right? The Nets have very little talent around Durant and are going to struggle to score the ball consistently any time he is off the floor. They've been a bad team this year so far there is no way around it and they have been one of the worst teams in the league against the spread, too. Washington isn't anything special, but they have shown they are at least a functional basketball team and have wins over Philly and Chicago.
I like the Wizards to win at home and cover here. If you're nervous about them winning only by a point or two, the money line is only -125 and a safer proposition. I think they win by 6-7 points or more.
The Pick: WAS -2.5 (-110 DK)
Milwaukee Bucks (-3) @ Minnesota Timberwolves (227 total)
The Bucks are 7-0 to start the year and they've done it without one of their top-3 players Khris Middleton even stepping on the floor yet. Milwaukee is firing on all cylinders right now and Giannis Antetokounmpo looks like the MVP of the league (along with Luka Doncic, let's not forget about him). They're 6-1 ATS this year with an average margin of victory over 11 points, having met all challengers and rebuffing them with the combination of solid defense and efficiency on the offensive end.
The Wolves have labored a bit to a 4-4 start to the season and have not been very good against the spread (3-5 with a -6 +/- margin). They also are listing Anthony Edwards and Rudy Gobert as questionable right now, which means they could end up being short-handed if one or both of those key players miss. I will be clear here, I like the Bucks to cover this spread even if Minnesota has all their guys as they simply haven't played very good defense this year. They have a ton of talent on offense and perhaps the better overall talent in their starting lineup, but the Bucks play a more complete brand of basketball and will have the best player on the floor (by a wide margin, sorry KAT and ANT) in this one and Jrue Holiday has been playing at another level to start the year as well.
Brook Lopez is a bad match-up for Rudy Gobert, pulling him away from the rim where he's uncomfortable and Giannis is a nightmare matchup for KAT or anyone else that Minnesota has to offer. I am grabbing the Bucks at -3 right now and if the Wolves end up sitting either Gobert or Edwards, I am sure we will see this line move even further toward Milwaukee.
The Pick: MIL -3 (-110 DK)
LA Clippers (-3.5) @ San Antonio Spurs (223.5 total)
Ready for an upset pick? I am feeling frisky and I want to take a shot at some good odds on a home underdog. Let's bet on these San Antonio Spurs tonight, why not?
This team was expected to be bad by everyone when they traded away Dejounte Murray in the offseason and made no other real upgrades to their roster. Many of us thought they were openly tanking for Victor and they very well might still be. But no one has told the players not to try to win and despite having injuries to several key starters already, this Spurs team is off to a 5-3 start to the year with wins over Chicago, Minnesota (twice), and Philadelphia - three teams we expect to be playoff teams at the end of the season.
Now I am fully aware that they just lost by 40 points to the Raptors at home last time out, but they waived the white flag early in that game and were without their two best players again as Devin Vassell and Keldon Johnson sat out. Tonight we should see both guys return to the lineup and massively upgrade the starting five, sending KDB and Romeo Langford back to the bench.
This pick has as much to do with the Spurs being kinda respectable as it does with the Clippers being really mediocre to start the year. They're 4-4, yes, but just barely pulled out two wins against the lowly Rockets in their last two games after they had dropped four straight. They still don't have Kawhi Leonard back from his injury and will be without defensive stalwart and glue guy Robert Covington tonight. Paul George is carrying this team right now and John Wall is limited to around 22 minutes per game off the bench. As much as I love PG13, he can't do it every night and there are going to be some games where his shot is off or he gets in foul trouble, and guys like Reggie Jackson and Marcus Morris have to carry the offense (oof!).
Call me crazy, but a fresh Johnson and Vassell (both were playing extremely well before their injuries) could really re-energize this Spurs team and they have enough offense to outscore the Clippers who have near the bottom of all the offensive metrics in the league this year. If you love trends, the Clippers have been the worst team ATS this season with an abysmal -9.7 +/- margin.
The Pick: San Antonio ML (+140 DK)
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NBA Betting Picks: Totals
Golden State Warriors (+4.5) @ New Orleans Pelicans (231.5 total)
Wow, the Warriors lost again last night to the...Orlando Magic! Not only did they lose, but they also allowed 130 points to a team that is not all that talented on offense, too. This Golden State team just can't get it together on the defensive end this year and that's why we are seeing this game projected for so many points.
I like the Pelicans here a lot and I was tempted to pick them ATS. They're getting Brandon Ingram back which is going to be a much-needed infusion of offense and gives them some more length on the defensive end, too. This New Orleans team when fully healthy is going to be a problem for teams this year as they can roll out McCollum, Ingram, Zion, and Jo-Val with a complimentary piece like Herb Jones or Trey Murphy III as their fifth guy.
I like the over in the game, too, but my favorite angle here is the Pellies' team total. The Warriors have allowed their opponent to go over 117.5 in 6 of 9 games this year and their list of recent victims (Charlotte - 120, Detroit - 128, Orlando - 130) is comprised of bad teams who aren't offensive powerhouses. This game should have pace and plenty of offense tonight, and I am counting on New Orleans getting back to their early-season efficiency with Ingram back in the mix. The Dubs are on a back-to-back, too, which is just one more reason to back the Pelicans here.
The Pick: Pelicans team total OVER 117.5 (-110 DK)
I usually do a money line favorite parlay on bigger slates and then one teaser bet as well (usually a lot of underdogs, but not always).
Just know the risks involved with parlaying bets, we are increasing our potential payouts but adding more risk to every bet with every outcome that we include.
Let's swing for the fences a little today with some BIGGER than usual parlays!
Favorite Moneyline Parlay: Phoenix + New Orleans + Memphis + Boston + Milwaukee = (+392 DraftKings)
Underdog 5-point Teaser: Toronto +9, San Antonio +8.5, Indiana +9, Utah +7 = (+190 DraftKings)
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