RADIO
The NFL season is here, and Week 2 of my five favorite player props of the week is back. We had a bit of a rough start in Week 1 with some injuries slowing us down, but there are a few lines in Week 2 that I think we can take advantage of to start building our bankroll for this season.
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All odds used were available at the time of publishing.
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NFL Player Prop Bets for Week 2
O2.5 Receptions
Sportsbook: Caesar’s Sportsbook
Odds: -117
I doubt that Joe Flacco will have another game this season where he throws the ball 59 times as he did in Week 1. It was the third-most attempts he has had in a game in his career, and it was the most attempts he had had since September of 2014. Of the eight players that registered a target last week, only one of them saw fewer than six balls thrown their way. Tyler Conklin was tied for fifth on the team with seven targets, but he still had four receptions while also leading all NFL tight ends in snaps last week.
Conklin’s 77 snaps were two more than any other NFL tight end, and he played 54 more snaps than any other Jets tight end. When a tight end was on the field for the Jets, there was a strong chance Conklin was the guy that was gonna be out there. He ran a route on 81.4 percent of the team’s pass plays, and as should be expected when he was out there for so many snaps, his 48 routes ran was first among NFL tight ends.
Last week, the Cleveland Browns only allowed three completions to opposing tight ends, but the Carolina Panthers' offense struggled all afternoon to pass the ball. The Browns will likely be able to put up points which should force the Jets to throw and keep Conklin on the field even more. The only way this line really gets tricky is if the Jets try to play ball control with the ground game, but they don’t have the horses to run against this Cleveland defense. Conklin may not rack up a high-yardage game, but he should get a few receptions tossed his way.
O61.5 Receiving yards
Sportsbook: BetMGM
Odds: -115
I was staring at this line for a while, and it just doesn’t make a ton of sense to me. The strength of the Washington Commanders' defense is in their front seven where they’ve invested a lot of assets. Meanwhile, their secondary has shown some vulnerability over the last couple of years. In Week 1, they were tagged up by Christian Kirk of the Jacksonville Jaguars for 117 yards, and they allowed Jacksonville’s number two wideout Zay Jones to clear this mark as well with 65 yards.
In Week 1, Amon-Ra St. Brown led all Detroit Lions’ pass-catchers with 12 targets on the day. Despite Detroit trailing for much of the day, he finished with just 64 receiving yards against a Philadelphia Eagles defense that was playing rather loose coverage. However, it was clear that he was the primary target for quarterback Jared Goff after they established that connection last season, and it doesn’t figure to diminish in Week 2.
Star running back D’Andre Swift has been dealing with an injury all week, and while he may suit up on Sunday, it’s reasonable to expect that he’ll be limited in his workload, especially with the effectiveness that was seen out of Jamaal Williams in his stead. The Lions have the offensive line in front of Goff to slow down the Washington pass rush, and considering the volume that goes in the direction of St. Brown, this number is in his grasp.
U250.5 Passing Yards
Sportsbook: PointsBet
Odds: -120
Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers came out in Week 1 and got punched square in the mouth. Rodgers never looked comfortable in the pocket, and the offense looked out of sync all afternoon. They’re in a great bounce-back spot in Week 2 at home against the Chicago Bears, but I’m not convinced this is going to be one of those high-yardage outings we’ve seen from Rodgers in the past.
Last season, after getting blown out in Week 1, the Packers rolled the Detroit Lions in Week 2 by 18 points, and Rodgers only threw for 255 yards despite having just five incompletions. They used a few short fields and their running game to keep the ball moving in the game. Now, Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon figure to factor even more heavily into the game this year, after Rodgers commented that they need to have more touches following the team’s Week 1 loss.
In six games against Chicago in the Matt LaFleur era, Rodgers has gone over the 250-yard mark just once, and that was in the high-scoring affair last season when Jakeem Grant scored a 94-yard punt return. This Chicago roster is one of the league’s worst on offense, but they still have a fair number of studs on defense. Green Bay should win this game, but it could be a quiet week from 12.
Davante Adams
O93.5 Receiving Yards
Sportsbook: BetMGM
Odds: -115
If Derek Carr wanted to prove who his favorite target was in Week 1, he made it clear that new Las Vegas Raiders teammate Davante Adams has claimed that top spot. Adams put on a show with a whopping 17 targets, which was 11 more than anyone else on the team and the most in the NFL overall. He had 141 yards and a score in a losing effort against the Los Angeles Chargers. Regardless, the volume we were used to with Adams in Green Bay didn’t change when his jersey did.
Adams had an incredible 50 percent target share on the day, and while that percentage will come down, it’s unlikely that it’s going to come down significantly enough to slow him down from a big day again in Week 2. This is a high number to be betting, and I normally wouldn’t be going after it. However, after the volume we just saw him get, I think it’s a comfortable number to attack. He also spent $500,000 to bring nearly his entire family to the game to have a suite to themselves for this week’s game. I think he’ll make sure Carr is throwing him the ball a ton.
He also has one of the best matchups that he could hope for in Week 2 against the Arizona Cardinals, who looked like one of the worst defenses in the NFL in Week 1. They rank 32nd against the pass by DVOA while giving up a nearly flawless game to Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs, who had 360 yards through the air. They don’t have the horses to match up with Adams this week.
Javonte Williams
O58.5 Rushing Yards
Sportsbook: DraftKings
Odds: -105
Melvin Gordon is going to get his touches with the Denver Broncos, but Javonte Williams is going to be leading the charge in Week 2. In Week 1, Javonte had just 43 yards on the ground, but he did it on seven carries. When he was running, he was ripping off huge chunks of yardage. The main problem occurred because the Broncos were trailing for much of the game and were being forced to throw to get back into it.
In Week 2, Denver gets a home matchup with the Houston Texans, who just gave up 161 yards on the ground to Indianapolis Colts running back Jonathan Taylor on 31 carries. The Broncos have done well at home early in the year over the past decade, and they should get out to an early lead in this matchup while letting Javonte rack up a fair bit of yardage along the way.
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