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After five consecutive years of finishing as the overall TE1 in fantasy football, Mark Andrews overtook Travis Kelce as the top scorer at the position during the 2021 season.
As we head into the 2022 campaign, an interesting topic of conversation has come up at the tight end position as to who will be the TE1 this year.
We have seen both Kelce and Andrews take the crown recently. There isn't really any contender to unseat either one of them, so who will be the TE1 in the 2022 fantasy football season? Let's check it out!
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Is Travis Kelce or Mark Andrews A Better Fantasy Football Pick?
Andrews finished with an astronomical 107 receptions for 1,361 and nine touchdowns with both Lamar Jackson and Tyler Huntley under center for the Ravens. When you look at this stat line, it may seem obvious as to who will be the TE1 heading into the 2022 season. However, when we consider what transpired over the offseason, Kelce seems like the best bet to reclaim his throne as the number one tight end in fantasy football this season.
Travis Kelce:
2016: TE1
2017: TE1
2018: TE1
2019: TE1
2020: TE1
2021: TE2
-Tyreek Hill’s 25.1% target share is goneDO NOT FADE THIS MAN
— Alex Caruso (@AlexCaruso) June 14, 2022
Through 13 weeks, which happens to be when Jackson was healthy and in the Ravens lineup, Andrews sat behind Kelce as the overall TE2. He saw 10+ targets in just four games while Jackson was healthy, then averaged 11.2 targets in the five games that Huntley played. This included four touchdowns and three games of at least 115 receiving yards.
What I am trying to get at here is that Andrews saw an increase in production when Huntley was starting for Baltimore acting as the security blanket for an inexperienced backup. Sure, Marquise Brown is now out of Baltimore and vacates 145 targets on his way out, but the Chiefs lost Tyreek Hill’s 159 targets and will be much more pass-heavy than the Ravens, who look to be shifting back to the 2019-style offense that saw them set the NFL record for rushing yards by a team in the regular season.
Will Travis Kelce Finish As The Overall TE1 in Fantasy Football?
Kelce will be the focal point of a pass-heavy offense led by one of the, if not, the best, quarterbacks in the NFL. That in itself is good reason to believe that he will once again be the top-scoring tight end in fantasy football, but let’s dive in further.
Travis Kelce: Patrick Mahomes keeps finding ways to get better. https://t.co/H7qpxDAXdf
— ProFootballTalk (@ProFootballTalk) August 16, 2022
Kelce finished with his lowest yardage total since 2017, which was back when Alex Smith was the starting quarterback in Kansas City. He finished with under 30 receiving yards on five separate occasions, which is pretty uncharacteristic of the stud pass-catcher. It is hard to imagine this happens again considering how many targets he should be able to command week in and week out. In the 2020 season, Kelce was held under 50 receiving yards on just two occasions and has been far more consistent from 2018-2020 than he was in 2021.
It is worth noting that Kelce out-targeted Hill in the 2020 season, so as the No.1 target once again, he should be able to find far more consistency than last year. Sure, they added JuJu Smith-Schuster, Skyy Moore, and Marquez Valdes-Scantling to the mix, but Kelce has the most rapport with Patrick Mahomes.
Since 2018, Kelce has had seasons of 150, 136, 145, and 134 targets. The new additions may offset the departure of Hill in terms of freed-up targets, but Kelce is still going to be the go-to guy and is the safest bet to lead tight ends in targets as he enters his age-33 season.
Adding onto this, his usage leads me to believe that he will once again top his position in touchdowns this season. Although this stat can be hard to predict, the fact that he is the best pass-catcher in a pass-heavy and high-scoring offense makes him seem like the best bet to consistently find the end zone. He co-led his position with nine touchdowns in 2021, which was tied with Andrews, Dawson Knox, and Hunter Henry.
Leaders in catches inside the 10-yard line💰
1. Cooper Kupp (11)
2. Davante Adams (10)
3. Mike Evans (9)
4. Travis Kelce (9)
5. Stefon Diggs (8)
6. Keenan Allen (8)
7. Mark Andrews (8)
8. Adam Thielen (8)Full Red Zone Report available in the UDK!
🏆https://t.co/Vuu7nf4xJN🏆 pic.twitter.com/tXqB9SYv26
— Fantasy Footballers (@TheFFBallers) August 17, 2022
That was with Hill seeing 24 red zone targets, compared to Kelce’s 16. From 2018-2020, Kelce has seen 26, 19, and 23 red zone looks, which is a great indicator to predict touchdown production, as these are high-value touches that will lead to touchdown opportunities.
To sum it up, even though Kelce didn't finish as the TE1 last year, this doesn't mean that Andrews is likely to repeat once again. Not taking ADP into consideration, Kelce seems like the guy you want over Andrews if you prioritize the tight end position. When you look at his track record of elite yardage, touchdown, and pass-catching numbers, the veteran is primed for another year of massive production. He should be the first tight end off the board in fantasy drafts for the 2022 season.
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