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PGA DFS Rankings Wizard - Tour Championship
We have a special treat for all you RotoBallers and golf enthusiasts. In addition to this article, be sure to also check out Spencer's PGA DFS Rankings Wizard - a powerful and interactive data spreadsheet that allows user inputs to create custom rankings and models for golf. If you want to create your own spreadsheet, you will need to make a copy under "file." We hope you enjoy!
East Lake
7,350 Yards - Par 70 - Greens Bermuda
I feel as if we do the same thing every year for the Tour Championship within this industry since switching to a staggered start. Half of the space will tell you that the deficit is easy to overcome since we see golfers recover from similar deficiencies weekly after Thursday night, whereas the other 50% are under a mindset that most of the field is drawing dead and only so many players have a chance to walk out of East Lake victorious. I do have an opinion that lands under one of those two parameters, but let's start with the course itself, and then we can get into some of the nuances of how we should expect the leaderboard to play out.
Measuring in as a rather lengthy Par 70 at 7,350 yards, East Lake is a challenging test that will ensure everyone earns their payday and does so by creating this complicated layout that provides very few opportunities to score. The par-three and four locations are long, and you will notice a trend where golfers that compete for the title do a solid job of keeping their scorecards clean until we get to the two par-fives at the track. Usually, the reduction from four to two chances will minimize the impact we see in how much weight we need to attach to our models, but when we look at the players that have taken down the FedExCup over the past few years, we get trends that point in a different direction. Rory McIlroy gained nearly 53% of his scoring at those two locations in 2019. Dustin Johnson experienced a similar fate in 2020 during his victory by gaining 55%. And then Patrick Cantlay ran the table last year by making birdie on the two holes every time for four days - resulting in a 72% impact towards his score. That is a unique ask for a course that features Bermuda grass with shaved runoffs, and it will be essential to miss shots to the correct quadrants with how the venue is structured. Golfers who ultimately end up missing their targets will need to be able to gain strokes around the green, and the addition of 74 bunkers and six water hazards will only amp up the difficulty for the millions of dollars that will be on the line.
For all those reasons, I don't believe this is the most accessible venue for those that need to play catch-up. The non-staggered winning score has hovered between 11-to-15 under during most iterations of the tournament, and it doesn't help that we are looking at par-five scoring being the best way for golfers in the field to attack. If the top players in the contest are making birdie on those holes 75%+ of the time, where do we get the chance for others to come from behind if the par-three locations are challenging to attack the pin and the par-four holes have too steep of a mixture of ease and difficulty? Sure, you might be able to make an argument that the key to success for the chasers will come down to being nearly perfect on the par-fives and avoiding any of the colossal mistakes on the lengthier par-fours while attacking the more gettable opportunities, but the path for victory starts to shrink little by little the further you stretch down the board.
Let's Look At The Stats
| Stat | Tour Championship | Tour Average |
| Driving Distance | 291 | 282 |
| Driving Accuracy | 54% | 62% |
| GIR Percentage | 64% | 65% |
| Scrambling Percentage | 57% | 57% |
| Average Three-Putts Per Round | 0.43% | 0.55 |
Key Stats
Let's quickly run through how I built my model.
Strokes Gained Total Donald Ross (12.5%)
Weighted Bermuda (12.5%)
Weighted Par-Four (15%)
Weighted Par-Five (20%)
Sand Save + ATG (10%)
Total Driving (15%)
GIR + Weighted Proximity (15%)
I will take a deeper dive into what went into these totals later in the week on my podcast. If you aren't doing so already, you can follow Bettor Golf Podcast on Twitter.
Fantasy Golf Lineup Picks for DraftKings (PGA DFS)
We have tons of great weekly PGA articles, DFS analysis, tools and DFS advice. Be sure to read our other fantastic articles regarding this week's event.
Power Ranking The Tour Championship
*** Please remember that my DFS article is always a first look at the field. Opinions might shift as the week goes on, and I am more than happy to discuss anyone further on Twitter. My take is including more than just the rank on my model, although it is being heavily dictated by it. The list isn't showing the best values - instead it is highlighting every facet.
For example - I would prefer playing Jordan Spieth over Cameron Smith because of the reduction in price, even if Smith is a few spots higher.
#30 - K.H Lee $6,000 (0)
(Four Spots Lower Than DK Price, Four Spots Lower Than Starting Score Rank)
K.H. Lee does receive the honors of being the low-man on the totem pole in my model, and it stems from negative marks across the board in all avenues. The GIR + weighted proximity ranks him dead last in the field, and the par-five scoring leaves more questions than answers as to how he will work his way up the leaderboard.
#29 - Sepp Straka $7,200 (-4)
(Seven Spots Lower Than DK Price, Seven Spots Lower Than Starting Score Rank)
While Sepp Straka doesn't rank second-to-last on my model entering the Tour Championship, the heightened ownership and price tag will push him down near the very bottom of my board because of the incorrect exposure that will go towards the Austrian. Straka does rank last in this event when removing the starting score from the equation, and he only cracks the top 25 in one out of seven categories where I attached a weight.
#28 - Sahith Theegala $6,700 (0)
(Four Spots Lower Than DK Price, Two Spots Lower Than Starting Score Rank)
The perceived upside of Sathith Theegala has propelled his price into the upper $6,000 range, and even if there is some stuff to like about his potential, the wayward driving and lack of Donald Ross success early in his career is troublesome. If the ownership ends up being non-existent, I might be more intrigued, but I find it challenging to back Theegala when there is no discount across the board.
#27 - Tom Hoge $5,000 (-1)
(Three Spots Higher Than DK Price, Six Spots Lower Than Starting Score Rank)
Tom Hoge is the first player in the field to show some potential against his min-priced salary, but is it enough to warrant consideration for your lineups? The short answer to it is yes, since the weighted proximity totals do place him inside the top 10 of the field, but the more extended explanation would be that the par-five scoring metrics still provide room to be pessimistic, which is why Hoge will eclipse his salary rank on DraftKings but might not do enough to make it worth the effort of rostering him.
#26 - Brian Harman $5,700 (-1)
(One Spot Higher Than DK Price, Five Spots Lower Than Starting Score Rank)
Like Hoge, Brian Harman does provide some optimism thanks to his higher-end metrics, but the par-five scoring has always left a ton to be desired - not to mention that the lack of length might hurt him at a track that does need a steady combination of distance and accuracy.
#25 - Scott Stallings $7,400 (-3)
(Four Spots Lower Than DK Price, 14 Spots Lower Than Starting Score Rank)
When we remove the starting score from the mix, the rank starts to slide precipitously - something we want to avoid on a golfer that could push towards top 10 ownership projections for the week. If Stallings beats me, good for him, but I don't want to buy into the hype when the long-term metrics still provide room for concern. I would find myself more interested if the popularity decreases by Thursday.
#24 - Max Homa $7,500 (-2)
(Four Spots Lower Than DK Price, Eight Spots Lower Than Starting Score Rank)
Significant boosts to Max Homa for the early ownership and par-five scoring. Unfortunately, the irons have gone south, and the driving accuracy when fairways get hard-to-hit will immediately shoot him back down my board. I would imagine we see his popularity creep up over the next few days.
#23 - J.T. Poston $5,100 (0)
(Six Spots Higher Than DK Price, Three Spots Higher Than Starting Score Rank)
How high is too high to push J.T. Poston up my ranks? We will stop at #23 because anything higher than that does start to become counterintuitive when we look at his early ownership marks, but the American has an elite short game to take advantage of these par-fives, and sometimes all you need is that at East Lake if you want to make a back-door run into the top 15 names. There is potential for Poston to exceed his price.
#22 - Collin Morikawa $7,900 (-1)
(Four Spots Lower Than DK Price, One Spot Lower Than Starting Score Rank)
Yea, Collin Morikawa is more likely to make a run up the leaderboard than some names in this range, but he will slip down my board because there aren't going to be many situations where I want to insert him into a lineup. The irons and total driving will need to be dialed in, or it might be a long four days.
#21 - Corey Conners $8,000 (-1)
(Four Spots Lower Than DK Price, Equal To Starting Score Rank)
I like the profile of Corey Conners, but I could live without the early ownership projection totals. Let's see where that trends over the next few days because Conners is a golfer that sets up well for East Lake.
#20 - Hideki Matsuyama $8,100 (-2)
(Four Spots Lower Than DK Price, Four Spots Lower Than Starting Score Rank)
The results have sparingly come for Hideki Matsuyama at East Lake over the years, and now we have this situation where the injury concerns throughout the season have him in a spot where he isn't playing his best golf entering the final event of the season. The upside is there for a better finish, but the floor is lower than some might expect.
#19 - Billy Horschel $6,900 (-1)
(Four Spots Higher Than DK Price, Two Spots Higher Than Starting Score Rank)
Billy Horschel looks like a neutral value in most areas, which means he isn't an option I would eliminate from builds upfront. I prefer possibilities like Jordan Spieth or Corey Conners if viewing this in a salary agnostic sense, but the reduction does place him as an interchangeable choice if you are required to save a few bucks. The Florida product has provided two top-seven performances at the track in his past three attempts, and he will be placed ahead of Conners because of those savings I mentioned previously.
#18 - Adam Scott $6,600 (0)
(Seven Spots Higher Than DK Price, Eight Spots Higher Than Starting Score Rank)
So far, we haven't seen many golfers that have been positive values against all ways of running a model, but Adam Scott joins the minimal group. Scott is trending in the right direction with back-to-back top-five finishes, and the weighted proximity places him seventh in this field. Can the Aussie win the tournament? Probably not. But there is potential for him to be one of the climbers from down beneath the board.
#17 - Joaquin Niemann $8,300 (-2)
(Two Spots Lower Than DK Price, One Spot Lower Than Starting Score Rank)
I don't have a ton to say about Joaquin Niemann. The course history has been abysmal, failing to crack the top 28 scores in either attempt, but the profile does set up nicely for a young golfer to show more life at East Lake. Will that happen this year? I am not sure. But the price does look to be fair on all accounts.
#16 - Jordan Spieth $7,800 (-2)
(Three Spots Higher Than DK Price, The Same As Starting Score Rank)
The long iron proximity and driving accuracy will leave a ton to be desired, but I am hedging my stance on Jordan Spieth by moving him up a few slots on this list. Spieth is one of the steadier climbers in my model for putting when facing quick Bermuda greens, and the par-five scoring potential is there if the short game cooperates.
#15 - Aaron Wise $5,400 (0)
(13 Spots Higher Than DK Price, 11 Spots Higher Than Starting Score Rank)
According to my model, Aaron Wise is the most mispriced player on the board. Wise ranks inside the top 11 in total driving, weighted proximity and weighted par-five scoring, but the popularity has hit the masses, as the American is currently trending towards being the second highest owned player on the slate. Let's keep an eye on that.
#14 - Cameron Smith $10,400 (-4)
(Seven Spots Lower Than DK Price, Eight Spots Lower Than Starting Score Rank)
It hasn't worked the other times I have done it this year, but Cameron Smith is a full-fade for me at the Tour Championship. Smith has failed to crack the top 15 in his previous three appearances at the track, and while the par-five scoring is enticing, the total driving places him last in the field. East Lake is a venue where hitting fairways is crucial, and I would prefer to take the same game style at a discount in Jordan Spieth.
#13 - Viktor Hovland $8,500 (-2)
(One Spot Higher Than DK Price, Three Spots Higher Than Starting Score Rank)
The short game leaves a lot to be desired, but Hovland ranks fourth in this field at Donald Ross tracks over the last 50 rounds and has provided two quality showings at East Lake in his career. I'd like to see the ownership come down marginally if I am going to take some chances on his upside, but the ball-striking acumen is there for a run up the leaderboard.
#12 - Cameron Young $9,000 (-3)
(Same As DK Price, One Spot Lower Than Starting Score Rank)
#11 - Matthew Fitzpatrick $8,800 (-3)
(Two Spots Higher Than DK Price, Two Spots Higher Than Starting Score Rank)
Fitzpatrick is interesting for two reasons in my model. For starters, he is not only a climber for safety and no-score handicapping of the event, but he also posts top totals for Bermuda and short par-four scoring. I prefer options like Sungjae Im or Justin Thomas if directly comparing, but Fitzpatrick feels like a neutral value with some steady production projections.
#10 - Sam Burns $9,900 (-5)
(Two Spots Lower Than DK Price, Five Spots Lower Than Starting Score Rank)
If pre-tournament scores weren't entering the fray, I probably would prefer both Cameron Young and Matthew Fitzpatrick when not fully integrating some of the extra win equity Burns is receiving for being the fifth option on the board at five-under. Still, though, my model is lower on the American than you will see from some throughout the space, and I likely will find myself underweight to him for the week.
#9 - Will Zalatoris $11,500 (-7)
(Five Spots Lower Than DK Price, Six Spots Lower Than Starting Score Rank)
Zalatoris' injury isn't being portrayed by his safety rank on the model. Unless we get some sort of quality news regarding the St. Jude winner from an injury perspective or this projected total tanks to zero, I will be including Zalatoris into that same group of Cameron Smith, Sam Burns, etc., where my exposure will be minimal, at best.
#8 - Patrick Cantlay $13,000 (-8)
(Six Spots Lower Than DK Price, Six Spots Lower Than Starting Score Rank)
It is one of the lower rankings you will see from anyone in the space for Patrick Cantlay, but I am not sure if last year's victory had more to do with his starting total on the board or if he managed to get the perfect outing on the par-fives. Cantlay birdied all eight chances last year during his 11-under non-staggered start performance, and when we remove those holes from the mix, we lose 72% of his output. That isn't a fair way to look at things since Cantlay is one of the top-ranked golfers in the field for par-five scoring, but if most of the price tag is being boosted by his starting position, I will take a stance against him and try to look elsewhere.
#7 - Justin Thomas $9,400 (-3)
(Three Spots Higher Than DK Price, Four Spots Higher Than Starting Score Rank)
I love Justin Thomas' upside potential, as we see him place inside the top five of almost every critical scoring metric. Is that enough to overcome the recent form? Maybe when we dive deeper into the course history numbers.
#6 - Tony Finau $9,600 (-4)
(Three Spots Higher Than DK Price, Same As Starting Score Rank)
Finau has yet to crack East Lake during his career, although the results have always been respectable for a golfer that is showing immense upside entering the week. You could argue that Thomas has a higher ceiling, but I will take the reduction in ownership and extra shot at around the same price tag.
#5 - Jon Rahm $10,900 (-3)
(Same As DK Price, Six Spots Higher Than Starting Score Rank)
We have received back-t0-back quality outings from Jon Rahm. You aren't going to find much to complain about when looking at his profile for East Lake.
#4 - Sungjae Im $9,100 (-4)
(Seven Spots Higher Than DK Price, Two Spots Higher Than Starting Score Rank)
In my opinion, there are only so many golfers that can win this title because of the nature of the course being difficult to play from behind, but Sungjae Im likely is the last plausible option on the betting board if you do decide to take a shot at 30/1.
#3 - Rory McIlroy $10,800 (-4)
(Three Spots Higher Than DK Price, Three Spots Higher Than Starting Score Rank)
I was expecting more ownership on Rory McIlroy to begin the week, but as we know by now in this space, things can change between Monday and Thursday. McIlroy is the best course fit from a statistical perspective in my model, and we get a glimpse of that with him ranking first in my recalculated par-five scoring totals.
#2 - Xander Schauffele $12,300 (-6)
(One Spot Higher Than DK Price, Two Spots Higher Than Starting Score Rank)
If Scottie Scheffler can't maintain his lead up top, my money is on Xander Schauffele, who has posted finishes at the track of third, first, second, seventh and first over the past five years. I do believe Xander is the better course fit for East Lake for all the reasons I have mentioned throughout the article, but Scheffler's scrambling and par-five scoring could be too much to overcome for the field.
#1 - Scottie Scheffler $13,600 (-10)
(Same As DK Price, Same As Starting Score Rank)
The thing Scottie Scheffler has going for him is not only does he have a multiple shot lead, but he also has three players directly below him in Patrick Cantlay, Sam Burns and Will Zalatoris that are overvalued on my model. That is important at a track that is difficult to make up ground for the chasers further beneath that five-under par range, and it doesn't hurt that the early ownership is flooding to Xander Schauffele.
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