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What a gauntlet of a trade deadline! Juan Soto is a Padre, as is Josh Hader, Josh Bell, and Brandon Drury. Meanwhile, the Yankees, Twins, Astros, and Mariners made plenty of splashes, setting up for quite a wild finish down the stretch!
Welcome back, RotoBallers! In this article, I'll be providing my MLB favorite betting picks on Tuesday, August 4th, 2022, for the 13-game 12:35 PM EST slate. Personally, my approach stems a bit more on the analytical side; I utilize a projection model I created utilizing projections from THE BAT X and Fangraphs Depth Charts to estimate the true talent of each lineup and pitching staff, adjusting for the team's pitcher. Based on the expected run differential each team is supposed to have in a game, we can compare this to see how much a team should theoretically win by, which allows us to translate that into a win probability, which leads to an adjusted money-line. For game totals, the implied runs scored and runs allowed for each team (with today's starting pitcher) are used, along with Baseball Savant park factors. This is not the "end all be all," but having some objective system to identify potential sources of value can be extremely helpful!
Today, we will be looking at the best side and total bets for today's slate. It being Thursday means it's a slightly lighter slate, though a double-header between the Cardinals and Cubs beefs it up a little. What games should you keep an eye on? Let's dive right into today's action!
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MLB Betting Projection Model Results
*NOTE: Negative Diff indicates that the home team is projected to win, and vice versa.
Today's MLB Betting Picks - A's @ Angels
O/U: 8 | Moneyline: LAA -120
OAK: Paul Blackburn | LAA: Janson Junk
Who could've guessed that, by the beginning of August, the A's and Angels would be separated by just five games? I mean, on May 25th, the Angels were just one game behind the Astros for first place in the AL West! Man, a lot can change in a hurry.
Right now, outside of Shohei Ohtani, it is hard to find any reason for optimism with the Halos. Over the past 30 days, only the Marlins have a lower weighted-runs-created-plus (wRC+). Want another fun statistic? Over that span, Luis Rengifo, by virtue of a bloated .403 batting average on balls in play (BABIP), is the only player outside of Ohtani with 20 plate appearances to post an above-average wRC+. Well, that's certainly not ideal.
A's starter Paul Blackburn may not miss bats at an elite level, but he limits walks (6.5%) and barrels, leading to overall fine (4.04 skill interactive ERA/SIERA) peripherals, while he's an efficient pitcher averaging over 5.3 innings per start this season. Of course, the way the Angels currently are struggling offensively, it's hard to find many pitchers that aren't in good position to thrive against them.
While the overall sample size with regards to Angels starter Janson Junk is limited, he didn't strike out an exceptional amount of hitters in Triple-A (20% strikeout rate) and hasn't missed bats yet (8.8% swinging-strike rate) at the MLB level. ZiPs goes as far as to project him with a 5.70 ERA. For what it's worth, Oakland has been the much better performing offense (20th in wRC+ over past 30 days) as of late, and also has the more trusted commodity on the mound.
At some point, the name value associated with the Angels, particularly without Mike Trout and with Taylor Ward and Jared Walsh struggling, needs to completely diminish, along with any other biases formed from their start to the year. Right now, can we definitely say the A's aren't the better team? I certainly can't.
Pick: Oakland Moneyline (+110), WynnBet Sportsbook
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Today's MLB Betting Picks - Rays @ Tigers
O/U: 8 | Moneyline: TB -179
TB: Jeffrey Springs | DET: Drew Hutchison
Can the Rays shoulder down and solidify their playoff push? Considering they're just one game ahead in the wildcard race and have four teams breathing down their neck, it's going to be difficult. Thus, when matchups work in their favor, they need to take advantage.
Speaking of which, this is certainly a situation where Tampa Bay has a clear edge. After all, this is a team who ranks in the top twelve in wRC+. The Tigers? Dead last. Meanwhile, the pitching matchup also certainly couldn't be more lopsided. In Jeffrey Springs, they're getting a pitcher that has performed at an extremely high level, even after moving to the rotation. In fact, among starting pitchers with at least 60 innings this season, his performance really stands out:
- 3.40 SIERA (T-21st)
- 20.4% K-BB (18th)
Simply from a performance standpoint, has Springs been a top-20 pitcher when on the mound? It may be a stretch to consider that to be the expectation moving forward, but when you take name value out of the equation, it's much easier to start to appreciate how tremendous he has been for the Rays this season. This is a pitcher who induces chases (35.8%, 97th percentile) at as strong of a level as anyone, and now faces the team that expands the zone the second-most of any team in baseball. Can you think of a better situation for Springs to be in?
On the other side, Tigers starter Drew Hutchison (5.22 SIERA, 3.8% K-BB) has struggled notably in his 49.2 innings in the majors this season, and comes with a very concerning 5.46 projected ERA from THE BAT projections. With a very subpar 86.1 stuff+ rating from Eno Sarris' predictive pitching+ model, it shouldn't be expected that he suddenly starts missing more bats, which is great news for a Rays team whose main issue this season has come via the strikeout bug. With Brandon Lowe back in the lineup and David Peralta acquired from the Diamondbacks, this is a team ready to do much more damage against right-handed pitching, and it starts here. In fact, anything but a convincing win would come as a clear surprise.
Pick: Tampa Bay Run Line (-104), FanDuel Sportsbook
Good luck, RotoBallers! Stay tuned for more great DFS and betting content throughout the week! For more baseball content, you can follow me at @talkmvp.
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