Breaking $100: PGA Betting Picks and Strategy - AT&T Byron Nelson

Keegan Bradley led the field in strokes gained putting at the Wells Fargo Championship last week. Let that sink in for a second. Keegan... Hansen... Bradley... led the field in strokes gained putting, but hit just too many bad shots in critical moments on Sunday to finish T2. In last week's article we noticed that Bradley had seemingly found some putting form since The Players. He did indeed, and is now gaining over a stroke per round in his last 15 rounds. It is disappointing to not have capitalized on such a magnificent putting week, but golf betting spares no room for our feelings.

Max Homa, on the other hand, gained the second most strokes on the greens and won his second tournament of the season, making that four career PGA Tour wins for one of the nicest guys on tour. He has steadily improved his ball striking over the last year by half a stroke per round, gaining 1.2 strokes in that department now. Congratulations Max!

For those of you who are new to the article, Breaking $100 is a comprehensive PGA betting guide on how to squeeze every cent out of your $100. We will be breaking $100 into a betting card of outrights, first-round leaders, placings, and a "farewell fiver", all in an attempt to turn a structured betting strategy into a profitable and entertaining Sunday sweat. $100 is easily divided or multiplied, so please only bet amounts that you can afford to lose. You can find me on Twitter an unhealthy amount of the time @TheModelManiac, if you have any questions, compliments, or insults for me.

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Course Breakdown and Key Stats

TPC Craig Ranch, Par: 72, Yardage: 7,468, Greens: Bent, Designer: Tom Weiskopf (2004)

As we say in the Midwest, everything tastes better with ranch and this week TPC Craig Ranch will satisfy our birdie appetites after last week's bogey fest. Last year, K.H. Lee finished at -25, making 28 birdies to win by three strokes. Golfers who make a lot of birdies and score well on the four easy Par 5s will be contenders this week, with both those stats combing for 30% of our model weighting.

Strokes gained on approach will be essential to go low this week, particularly from 150+ yards, with 71% of approach shots taking place outside of 150 yards last year. Strokes gained off the tee weighting will be status quo, while putting stats make their first appearance in this article as above average putting goes a long way in ramping up the birdie tallies.

In summary, we are looking for players to excel in most of the below criteria:

• Model Rank
• SG: Off The Tee
• SG: APP / SG: APP L24
• Proximity 150+
• SG: Putting on Bent L50
• SG: Putting L24
• Par 5 Scoring
• Birdie or Better Percentage

 

Outrights

It is the week before the PGA Championship, which leaves us uncertain about where the best players' focus may be this week. In addition to it being the week before a major, high scoring events like this can make it very difficult to predict a winner as anyone with above-average ball striking is a hot putter away from victory. Therefore, we have dodged the top of the board and "engaged eight" with a blitz package of golfers all 50-1 or higher.

Our betting strategy for outrights is rather conservative, requiring a winner once every eight events in order to break even. From a dollar standpoint, we are betting $13.35 of our $100 to net $110 or more.

Seamus Power ($2.46 @ +5000)

Seamus made a shameless snowman on his opening hole of his second round last week, inevitably just missing the cut. Outside of that triple-bogey (8), he played solid golf and heads back to TPC Craig Ranch where he finished T9 last year. We have bet on Seamus in some capacity for most of his starts so far as the model typically rates him higher than most books.

His irons have been a bit of a concern since missing the cut at the WM Phoenix Open. However, he struck his irons well here a year ago and the greens at TPC Craig Ranch are relatively large, placing less pressure on approach shots as danger looms a little less than tour average. The rest of his game checks all the boxes, usually gaining off the tee courtesy of a combination of length and accuracy. Part of a very well-rounded game, his putter has gained an average of over four strokes in five of his 16 starts this season.

Seamus leads the field in bogey avoidance, which helps, but won't be the reason he wins the tournament. His eighth-ranked Par 5 scoring will definitely help, though, while also making the 16th most bridies in the field. If his irons can return from the polar ice caps, the rest of his game has the ability to win his second PGA Tour event.

• Model Rank: 13
• SG: OTT: 39
• SG: APP/ L24: 35 / 115
• Prox 150+: 38
• SG: Bent L50: 14
• SG: P L24: 39
• Par 5: 8
• BoB%: 16

Adam Hadwin ($2.24 @ +5500)

Our second outright comes in the form of a steady Canadian that has an approach game as sweet as the maple syrup he pours on his pancakes. Adam Hadwin enters the week with the fifth-best approach ranking over the last 24 rounds, notching three top-10s and a T26 in his last four starts. His game is peaking and just needs his putter to sync up with the rest of his game. He is striking the ball so well that he managed a T4 at the Valero Texas Open while losing -1.2 strokes on the greens.

His approach play was rather disappointing in the 2021 season, affecting his par 5 scoring and birdie or better rankings which have rebounded in 2022, now both sitting respectably inside the top-40 on tour. Hadwin's statistical profile looks even better than it did in the lead up to his first and only win on tour at the 2017 Valspar Championship. The stars are aligning, and we believe the Hadwin constellation is going to put on an incredible intergalactic performance for those who have patiently waited.

• Model Rank: 28
• SG: OTT: 67
• SG: APP/ L24: 48 / 5
• Prox 150+: 38
• SG: Bent L50: 38
• SG: P L24: 56
• Par 5: 63
• BoB%: 66

 

Adam Scott ($1.86 @ +6600)

The second Adam on our card has one of the most polished swings on the professional circuit and is one of the most underrated putters on tour. Only three other golfers in the field have been putting better than Adam Scott over the last 24 rounds. If we jump to the last 50 rounds on Bent putting surfaces, he ranks 15th, which is an overlap of short-term and long-term putting form that is almost as majestic as his swing.

From a ball striking standpoint, Adam ranks as one of the better long-iron players, finding himself 20th in proximity from 150+ yards. Scott's driver also sits inside the top-20 in driving distance but stinks up the bottom of the accuracy rankings. Even with his struggles off the tee, this course offers a little more leeway for errant tee shots, which the Ozzie should take advantage of. If Adam can get away with a "spray and pray" approach off the tee, the rest of his game sets up really nicely to make bunches of birdies on route to his first win since 2020.

• Model Rank: 18
• SG: OTT: 61
• SG: APP/ L24: 21 / 42
• Prox 150+: 20
• SG: Bent L50: 15
• SG: P L24: 4
• Par 5: 51
• BoB%: 24

Brian Harman ($1.54 @ +8000)

In a golf world full of athletic hares, Brian Harman is the definition of the triumphant tortoise. He ranks 124th in driving distance, but is fifth in strokes gained off the tee over his last 24 rounds. When times get tough, he escapes into his shell of fifth-ranked bogey avoidance. However, this week Brian will need to lean on his steady Par 5 scoring which is surprisingly better than you would expect from a player of his length. He manages to dismantle Par 5s with his tidy around the green game and a potent putter that has out scored the rest of his game over the last two years.

Although Harman doesn't rate out as a superior ball striker, he is surprisingly efficient from 150+ yards. He ranks 31st in long-iron play which will be crucial around a longer TPC Craig Ranch. Apart from his recent driving numbers, all of his key stats are outside of the top-20, but the majority of them are well-above average which can culminate in a win at any moment.

• Model Rank: 23
• SG: OTT: 28
• SG: APP/ L24: 79 / 62
• Prox 150+: 31
• SG: Bent L50: 26
• SG: P L24: 30
• Par 5: 26
• BoB%: 45

Sepp Straka ($1.54 @ +8000)

Sepp Straka managed to win the Honda Classic regardless of Daniel Berger's Sunday five-shot lead (still very salty about that). He did so with a putter that has since been the best in the business, leading the field in strokes gained putting over the last 24 rounds.  Sepp is also one of the better approach players from outside of 150 yards, which should partner up quite nicely with a driver that has powered its way to 18th spot in the field L24.

Sepp will be looking to improve on last year's T26 and can expect to do so given the confidence he is playing with at the moment. His driver, long irons, and putter are all well rested after a missed cut in some brutal and excusable conditions last week. Straka's game suits this course remarkably well and if his recent form can continue to gush over into this week, we can anticipate ex-Sepp-tional results!

• Model Rank: 21
• SG: OTT: 40
• SG: APP/ L24: 65 / 65
• Prox 150+: 13
• SG: Bent L50: 20
• SG: P L24: 1
• Par 5: 38
• BoB%: 34

Keith Mitchell ($0.50 @ +8000)

At 80-1 Keith Mitchell offers phenomenal upside with his ability to drive the ball long and straight, while sinking his fair share of putts. Mitchell lost strokes off the tee at last week's wet Wells Fargo for the first time this season. The books seem to have ignored that the weather and course that Keith will be playing on this week will suit his game much better.

When Keith gains strokes putting, he gains considerably, which is exactly what we want from an outright at a "putting contest" this week. He ranks second to Bubba Watson in strokes gained off the tee and is one of the better long-iron players in the field. This combination sees Keith inside the top-25 in Par 5 scoring and birdies, which also explain why he finished T26 here last year. Mitchell can win this tournament with booming drives and pristine putts.

• Model Rank: 22
• SG: OTT: 2
• SG: APP/ L24: 97 / 39
• Prox 150+: 35
• SG: Bent L50: 31
• SG: P L24: 45
• Par 5: 17
• BoB%: 25

Patton Kizzire ($0.50 @ +8000)

At the same number as Keith, Patton Kizzire is a substantially better iron player, with a similar ability to spike with the flatstick. Off the tee, Patton gains through distance while sacrificing accuracy, which is a tradeoff that may pay dividends at a course like this. He has turned into a remarkable iron player, ranking 18th in approach over his last 24 rounds, while his approach baseline creeps lower each week. Outside of The Players, his putter has not really provided much support to the rest of his game, but he does own a impressive Bent baseline that could reappear this week.

Kizzire finished T3 at last year's Byron Nelson which makes sense, as he is 11th in birdie or better percentage and 19th in Par 5 scoring. He should not have a problem making enough birdies to win this week. It is simply a matter of whether he can keep his driver out of trouble enough to avoid too many silly bogies. Patton's ball striking has been crisp and consistent enough to win a tournament when his putter decides to pop!

• Model Rank: 15
• SG: OTT: 72
• SG: APP/ L24: 32 / 18
• Prox 150+: 56
• SG: Bent L50: 17
• SG: P L24: 46
• Par 5: 19
• BoB%: 11

Matthew Wolff ($0.95 @ +13000)

Matthew Wolff has openly discussed his troubles with mental health while being on tour. After snapping a club at Augusta and emitting far too many negative outbursts, he showed up to the Wells Fargo with a completely renewed mindset. In an interview after round one last week, he mentioned that he has adopted a process-driven approach, ignoring results, while focusing on having fun. He finished T25 in some very difficult conditions at a course that does not suit his explosive power off the tee.

If he brings that same process-driven mindset to Craig Ranch, he has incredible upside at a course that now suits him much better than last week. He can embrace his distance off the tee knowing that a missed fairway is a little less penal than most courses. With very little momentum heading into the week, this is a very risky pick, but at 130-1, if he can play like he did when he finished second at the U.S. Open in 2020, its a risk worth taking.

No need to list his stats as they are a hot mess.

 

First-Round Leaders

Nine events, zero first-round leaders. We are now in a hole with this particular bet. We have had multiple close calls, but to no avail. Our wallets are telling us to do something different, but in this sport it is entirely possible to hit back-to-back winners if we stick to our guns and get a little lucky. It's only a matter of time.

Like last week, we are simply replicating our outright card minus Brian Harman. With so many long shots on the card, the odds for FRL did not increase compared to outrights, and in some cases they were shorter. It makes sense, as a golfer in the 60s is more likely to have one good round than four consecutive ones.

From a dollar standpoint, we are betting a total of $11.65 on seven guys to net $110 or more.

*Last week we contemplated this strategy: "We will be researching whether or not betting FRL Top-5 bets is a more profitable avenue to pursue, as it allows multiple bets to cash if two or more picks play well on Thursday. It also rewards us for placing second, which we have done multiple times, instead of not profiting at all."

**K.H. Lee missed a four-foot putt on the last hole to miss a tie for third, dropping to T8. I do believe this is the way to go, though, but we are going to ride out this FRL train till we hopefully hit one or two.

Seamus Power ($2.46 @ +5000)

Adam Hadwin ($1.85 @ +6600)

Adam Scott ($1.85 @ +6600)

Sepp Straka ($1.53 @ +8000)

Keith Mitchell ($.53 @ +8000)

Patton Kizzire ($1.22 @ +10000)

Matthew Wolff ($1.22 @ +11000)

 

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Placings

We have $75 remaining in the bank, of which we will be using $70 on five T20s. Odds range from +120 to +320 so two of the five guys we bet on need to cash to make a profit.

Sam Burns (T20: $13 @ +120 on FD)

Just like his name suggests, Sam Burns can combust into a fiery, birdie-making wrecking ball. He leads the field in Par 5 scoring making his second-place finish here last year no surprise. The Burns combustion equation includes approach play, driving, and putting, which are all obvious requirements to make a lot of birdies, but he is capable of getting so hot with either of the three variables, that he really only needs two of them to pop in order to finish inside the top-20.

• Model Rank: 4
• SG: OTT: 33
• SG: APP/ L24: 4 / 28
• Prox 150+: 28
• SG: Bent L50: 32
• SG: P L24: 12
• Par 5: 1
• BoB%: 3

Joaquin Nieman (T20: $13 @ +170 on FD)

Joaquin Nieman has a similar blueprint to Burns. He is actually better off the tee, ranking sixth in the field, while all three of his approach metrics rank inside the top-15. What he gains on the ball striking front he loses a little on the greens, rating 72nd on Bent surfaces. However, he is still very capable of making birdies in bunches and takes care of business on the Par 5s enough to have him on our T20 card.

• Model Rank: 6
• SG: OTT: 6
• SG: APP/ L24: 15 / 9
• Prox 150+: 10
• SG: Bent L50: 72
• SG: P L24: 50
• Par 5: 11
• BoB%: 9

Jason Kokrak (T20: $13 @ +210 on FD)

Putting contest, meet Jason Kokrak. Kokrak's baseline on Bent is seventh and on all surfaces he ranks third. His putter has cooled off recently, sitting just outside the top-40, but he has enough fire-power in the other areas of his game to crush the Par 5s and circle a lot of numbers on his score card (birdies). His controlled distance off the tee will come in handy here and his iron play is decent enough to afford him enough birdie looks to get his putter firing on all cylinders again.

• Model Rank: 12
• SG: OTT: 31
• SG: APP/ L24: 37 / 73
• Prox 150+: 39
• SG: Bent L50: 7
• SG: P L24: 41
• Par 5: 9
• BoB%: 12

Seamus Power (T20: $13 @ +250 FD)

An unwavering betting commitment either pays off in a big way or Seamus breaks our hearts in back-to-back events. May the luck of the Irish smile upon you this week Mr. Power!

Adam Hadwin (T20: $18 @ +320 on FD)

Adam Hadwin is the fifth best approach player in the field over the last 24 rounds. That, on its own, is enough to click his top-20 ticket at +320. This number seems like a misprice as he has finished T26, T4, T7, and T9 in his last four starts. There is obviously a possibility of any professional golfer missing out on a T20, but this is an absurd line on a man who is evidently playing really consistent golf.

In fact, we just went back and knocked a dollar off of each of the other four bets and added it to this bet. My fellow RotoBaller @teeoffsports, is a big advocate of being aggressive on a bet that you feel you have a major edge on. We believe we have a major edge here!

 

The Farewell Fiver

Justin Thomas (T5: $5 @ +250 on BetMGM - ties paid in full)

The number one ranked golfer in my model has been striking the ball at an elite level for a long time. His outright price was a little too steep to pull the trigger in an event as volatile as this, though. Our favorite stat is not his world-class iron play, but his putting! In the 20 rounds since the Genesis Invitational, JT has gained a total of nine strokes putting. To put this into perspective, Thomas has not gained more than +0.08 putting per round in his last three seasons on tour. A Justin Thomas that is putting in the positives is delightfully dangerous.

Mexico Open Recap:

• Outright: -$13
• FRL: -$12
• Placings: +$13.60
• Farewell Fiver(s): -$5
• Total: -$16.40
• Season Total: +$86.75

The placings did their job last week, profiting $13.60  while limiting the damage in a week with no outrights or FRLs. Corey Conners made a 14-foot putt on Friday to make the cut, only to finish T21 courtesy of a bogey on his final hole of the tournament. We would have had a profitable week had he hit the green and two putted from 160 yards.

Our system is working, though, as we are still profitable on the season and another big week is just around the corner.

As always, may the odds be ever in your favor!!!

 

 

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