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Welcome back to RotoBaller’s Statcast pitcher Studs and Duds article series! Each week, I will select one advanced metric, choose two pitchers with strong values and two with poor values, and analyze what those values may mean for future performance. Last week I took a look at exit velocity, and this week I will analyze a metric that pairs well with it: launch angle (LA).
Pitchers can find success by allowing fly balls, but they generally strive to get hitters to put the ball on the ground since a ground ball, even a hard-hit one, is less likely to go for a hit or damaging contact. Knowing which pitchers can get away with allowing fly balls and which succeed as ground-ball pitchers can help fantasy managers roster a strong rotation.
While LA alone does not paint a pitcher's complete story, it is a good indicator as to what type of results they could experience throughout the season. I will pick two SP in the top percentiles of LA and two in the bottom, take a look under the hood, and predict what we can expect from them going forward. We're about a month into the season now, so let's start taking advantage of the data!
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Launch Angle Studs for Fantasy Baseball
All stats are current as of Sunday morning, May 8, 2022.
Framber Valdez, Houston Astros
1-2, 3.34 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, -7.4 Degree LA
Framber Valdez is the first Astros starter I will look at in this article, and he, like many of his teammates, has gotten off to a strong start this season. The 28-year-old has gone 1-2 with a 3.34 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, and 18.8% strikeout rate over his first six starts and 32 1/3 innings pitched. True to form, Valdez is a sinker-heavy, groundball pitcher and has a league-leading -7.4-degree LA. This approach makes Valdez a successful big-league pitcher, but what does it mean for his fantasy value?
Valdez mixes five different pitches in his arsenal, but he relies primarily on his sinker at 53.5% usage. He keeps all of his pitches in the bottom of the zone, inducing hitters to hit the ball into the ground. His average exit velocity and hard-hit rate are also above-average, which helps him. He does rely on contact; his 79% contact rate is among the higher marks in baseball. Consequently, his strikeout upside is limited. That being said, his 9.8% swinging-strike rate is right in line with his 10% career mark, so it would not be surprising to see his strikeout rate creep up towards his career mark of 22.2% as the season progresses.
Overall, Valdez offers plenty of fantasy value despite being a contact pitcher. He gets solid batted-ball results, pitches deep enough into games to be win-eligible, has a strong offense backing him, and may see a bit of an uptick in strikeouts from where he currently stands. He may not be the most exciting fantasy starter, but Valdez is a safe, high-floor option in both points and roto leagues.
Logan Webb, San Francisco Giants
4-1, 3.82 ERA, 1.39 WHIP, 0.6 Degree LA
Logan Webb emerged in 2021 as a strong fantasy option and has continued that this season, compiling a 3.82 ERA and 1.39 WHIP over his first six starts. He has also continued his groundball tendencies from last season, generating a 0.6-degree LA that is tied for second-best in baseball. How has Webb found his success?
Webb's success can be tied to the development of his diving changeup, which he pairs evenly with a sinker and slider. He has actually thrown his changeup more than his sinker this season and has gotten hitters to pound balls into the ground with both pitches. Like Valdez, Webb has a higher contact rate at 76.4%, but his exit velocity and hard-hit rate are strong in the 76th and 58th percentiles of baseball, respectively.
Data from baseballsavant.mlb.com
The one concern for Webb is his drastic drop in strikeouts to this point. His strikeout rate dropped from a solid 26.5% in 2021 to a career-low 18% this season. This is puzzling, as his contact rate is not that much higher than his 73.2% last season, and his overall swinging-strike rate of 11.4% is not drastically lower than his 2021 12.4% mark. He has also seen a slight jump in swinging-strike rate for each of his three main pitches. I can only chalk this up to bad luck and expect to see those numbers improve with a larger sample size.
Webb has been a surprise higher-end fantasy option since the 2021 season and has underlying metrics to back up his performance. He mixes his pitches well and keeps the ball down in the zone. He does have decent swing-and-miss stuff, and the lack of translation of that into strikeouts so far this season seems to be an anomaly. I expect Webb to continue to be a strong fantasy option at the top of managers' rotations this season.
Launch Angle Duds for Fantasy Baseball
All stats are current as of Sunday morning, May 8, 2022.
Triston McKenzie, Cleveland Guardians
2-2, 2.76 ERA, 1.02 WHIP, 21.9 Degree LA
Triston McKenzie has had a lot of fantasy hype surrounding him throughout his career, and while last season was a disappointment, things have been better for him in 2022. The 24-year-old has compiled a 2.76 ERA, 1.02 WHIP, and 26.1% strikeout rate over his first 29 1/3 IP this season. However, his 21.9-degree LA is the fourth-highest among qualified pitchers this season. As I mentioned at the top of the article, pitchers can allow fly balls and be successful; can fantasy managers expect this to continue for him?
This seems pretty straightforward to me. Fly-ball pitchers who are successful don't allow a lot of contact and allow soft contact. McKenzie has done neither this season. His 79.2% contact rate is one of the higher marks in baseball, and his average exit velocity and hard-hit rate are in the bottom eight and 14 percent of baseball, respectively. The combination of a high launch angle and hard contact typically does not bode well for pitchers, suggesting that McKenzie has gotten lucky so far. As an example, he has managed a minuscule 2.9% HR/FB rate with his batted-ball profile, which is both very low in general but also much lower than his career 13.2% value.
Overall, I think McKenzie has vastly outperformed his batted-ball profile. It is only a matter of time before all the hard-hit balls in the air start to turn into extra-base hits or leave the ballpark. His pitch mix, while sufficient at generating strikeouts, is not strong enough to keep hitters from hitting the ball hard. As such, I consider McKenzie as a strong sell-high candidate at this time.
Luis Garcia, Houston Astros
2-1, 3.45 ERA, 0.87 WHIP, 21 Degree LA
Luis Garcia has gotten off to a nice start to his career and has continued that into 2022. The 25-year-old has gone 2-1 with a 3.45 ERA, 0.87 WHIP, and 25.2% strikeout rate through his first five starts. His results have been strong, but his 21-degree launch angle is tied for fifth-highest among qualified pitchers. Can he continue to produce these results while allowing such a high LA?
Garcia throws five pitches, but he mainly relies on a four-seam fastball (53.1% usage) and a cutter (23.8% usage), followed by a curveball (8.8% usage) and changeup (8.5% usage). It is a bit surprising that Garcia has found such success as a starter in general with his high fastball usage, although he does have a deceptive delivery. Looking more specifically into his LA, the main culprit is his four-seamer. Garcia throws his four-seamer up in the zone and has a 25-degree LA to show for it. His 91.5-MPH exit velocity on the pitch is average, but his expected batting average and slugging percentage are both a good deal higher than his current marks.
Garcia has gotten good results overall this season and now has a career of 3.44 ERA and 1.12 WHIP over 196 1/3 IP. However, he relies heavily on his fastballs and has allowed a high LA with them this season. This can be fine if he gives up weak contact, and his average exit velocity this season is about league average, but his expected stats on his four-seamer are not strong. I am not all that concerned given the success he has found so far in his career, but I wouldn't rule out attempting to trade him in the event that his expected stats catch up to him.
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