
Dave Ventresca examines several dynasty fantasy football losers following the 2025 NFL Draft. What factors could cause their values to drop heading into 2025?
The NFL offseason keeps chugging along. We have made it past the NFL Draft. That means rookie minicamps and OTAs aren’t far away. For dynasty managers, it also marks the start of the rookie draft season.
While this should be the immediate focus for dynasty gamers, we should take a moment and acknowledge that some players' dynasty value has changed following the results of the NFL Draft. Players once thought of as placeholders quickly rise in dynasty rankings, while others whose value seemed secure become losers in an instant. Today, we are going to examine several players whose dynasty stock went down after the draft.
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Rome Odunze, DJ Moore, Cole Kmet - Chicago Bears
Apparently, the Chicago Bears have taken the fantasy football approach to NFL team building. Chicago continued to add pieces to its offense when it selected tight end Colston Loveland with the 10th overall pick and followed it up by taking wide receiver Luther Burden III with the 39th overall pick.
The first tight end is off the board, but not the one everyone expected: The #Bears pick #Michigan TE Colston Loveland at 10th overall.
A complement to Cole Kmet.
— Ian Rapoport (@RapSheet) April 25, 2025
Luther Burden III #DaBears
• Burst
• Elite Elusiveness/COD
• Ball Skills/Concentration
• Suddenness
• Play Strength
• Dominant on slot fades
Burden is a playmaker with rare versatility pic.twitter.com/lUDRUaqWAm— CJ (@cjfbscout) April 26, 2025
Holy overkill! It’s hard to know where to even begin here. All of Moore, Odunze, and Kmet are dynasty losers. Moore and Odunze now face more competition with Burden in the mix, and it’s unclear how these three players' roles will be divided and what kind of targets they’ll each receive. Kmet is the biggest loser as the Bears drafted a younger, more athletic tight end to eventually take his place.
The most likely outcome is that this offense becomes a jumbled mess for fantasy football purposes. Ben Johnson’s hiring was met with great applause from dynasty fantasy football managers, but we are only a few months in, and he’s already giving gamers headaches. The only true winner here is quarterback Caleb Williams. He now finds himself in an even better situation than last year and is surrounded by talent everywhere he looks.
The addition of Loveland completely nukes Kmet’s dynasty value. He becomes a hold in the hope he finds himself in a better situation a year from now. Moore and Odunze are also holds, as we should hang tight and not jump to conclusions on who will do what in this offense.
I’ve seen many managers across my leagues throwing Odunze on the trade block as a knee-jerk reaction to the Burden pick. While that might seem like a good move, it’s better to hold tight. Chicago just spent the ninth overall pick on Odunze last year, and he showed promise as a rookie. Odunze could be a sneaky buy-low candidate given the initial reaction, but it’s probably better to wait and see how things progress before making any moves.
Jaylen Warren - RB, Pittsburgh Steelers
The Steelers were rumored to be in the market for a running back during the NFL Draft. Warren escaped Day 1 unscathed after Pittsburgh took defensive tackle Derrick Harmon in the first round. However, Warren was not so lucky on Day 2 as Pittsburgh used its third-round pick to select Iowa running back Kaleb Johnson.
With the 83rd pick in the 2025 #NFLDraft, we select RB Kaleb Johnson. pic.twitter.com/bGIsBRDAQl
— Pittsburgh Steelers (@steelers) April 26, 2025
Johnson enjoyed a fine career at Iowa and was one of the best backs in the country last year. He fell a bit in the draft due to some athleticism concerns. Make no mistake about it, though, Johnson is a very good back.
.@HawkeyeFootball Kaleb Johnson. Enter the RB conversation. This #nfldraft is loaded. A big back with quick feet; great change of pace with power to run through contact. #BaldysBreakdowns pic.twitter.com/lggsTJYEvb
— Brian Baldinger (@BaldyNFL) March 31, 2025
From a schematic standpoint, Johnson’s game does fit better in a zone rushing scheme. Luckily for him, the Steelers seem like an ideal landing spot.
Kaleb Johnson was most successful in a zone-blocking scheme.
The #Steelers ran the 2nd most zone-blocking runs in the NFL last year per @FantasyPtsData 👀
This is a GREAT landing spot and Johnson is about to prove all his haters wrong. #fantasyfootball #nfldraft25
— Dave Ventresca (@FF_Stallion) April 26, 2025
Despite the selection of Johnson, Warren will still have a role in the offense. However, the hopes that Pittsburgh would finally make him the RB1 have been dashed.
Selling Warren now might prove difficult. However, many dynasty gamers don’t believe in Johnson’s talent. If a Johnson skeptic is in your league, you might be able to exploit this and still get a decent trade return for Warren.
Jalen McMillan - WR, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
This has not been the best offseason for McMillan. He closed the 2024 season on a high note and posted five straight top-19 finishes to close the year. With veteran Chris Godwin set to hit free agency, it looked like McMillan was a rising dynasty star.
Mayfield to McMillan for the 32-yard TD!
📺: #WASvsTB on FOX
📱: https://t.co/waVpO909ge pic.twitter.com/d8ESrlMXNF— NFL (@NFL) September 8, 2024
As things turned out, this may have been McMillan’s peak dynasty value. In an unexpected move, Godwin reportedly left $30 million on the table by turning down an offer from the New England Patriots and signing a team-friendly deal to return to Tampa Bay. If that wasn’t bad enough, the team then used its first-round pick in the 2025 NFL Draft to select Ohio State wide receiver Emeka Egbuka.
Another year, another first round WR picked from @OhioStateFB 😮💨
Best of luck in Tampa Bay, Emeka Egbuka 🔥#B1GFootball x @Buccaneers pic.twitter.com/LL6jH885xq
— Big Ten Football (@B1Gfootball) April 25, 2025
Gross. This is a tough blow for McMillan’s backers. He went from being a potential breakout candidate to a WR3. Following the selection of Egbuka, it’s now unknown what kind of role he will have in Tampa Bay's offense.
Does the team still believe in him? Is he still in the long-term plans? It’s tough to look at the selection of Egbuka and the re-signing of Godwin and not question McMillan's standing with the team.
Najee Harris - RB, Los Angeles Chargers
Harris signed a one-year deal with the Chargers earlier this offseason. At the time, it looked like a great move for Harris’ value as Los Angeles had released Gus Edwards and decided not to re-sign last year’s starter, J.K. Dobbins.
All of that changed when Los Angeles drafted North Carolina running back Omarion Hampton with the 22nd pick in the 2025 NFL Draft.
Omarion Hampton is headed to LA ⚡️#NFLDraft @Chargers @OmarionHampton pic.twitter.com/xzXRtjDnVt
— NFL (@NFL) April 25, 2025
Hampton is a highly talented back and was rumored to be the top running back on some teams’ draft boards. This is bad news for Harris’ dynasty value. He’s not as bad a player as some dynasty gamers want to admit, but the facts are the facts here.
Los Angeles only signed Harris to a one-year deal, then spent a first-round pick on a running back. He is not going to stand in the way of Hampton eventually taking over this backfield.
Christian Kirk - WR, Houston Texans
Kirk looked like a big dynasty winner when he was traded from the Jacksonville Jaguars to the Houston Texans.
Jaguars trading WR Christian Kirk to Texans for a 2026 7th-round pick. (via @TomPelissero) pic.twitter.com/qol4DBf923
— NFL (@NFL) March 6, 2025
This was about as good of a situation Kirk could have asked for, as Houston let Stefon Diggs walk in free agency, and Tank Dell is likely to miss the season with a major injury. Things took an unexpected turn, though, when Houston selected Iowa State wide receivers Jayden Higgins and Jaylin Noel in Rounds 2 and 3 of the NFL Draft.
With the 34th pick in the 2025 @NFL Draft, the @HoustonTexans select Jayden Higgins from @CycloneFB pic.twitter.com/SMDYGrg9MN
— Big 12 Conference (@Big12Conference) April 25, 2025
With the No. 79 overall pick in the 2025 @NFLDraft, the @HoustonTexans select Jaylin Noel.
📺: #NFLDraft on NFLN/ESPN/ABC
📱: Stream on @NFLPlus pic.twitter.com/7bI0wV45DA— NFL (@NFL) April 26, 2025
There’s no way to sugarcoat this one. Houston doubled up on receivers on Day 2 of the NFL Draft. Kirk’s contract expires after the 2025 season, and based on Houston’s draft, he is not in the team’s long-term plans. If he gets injured or his play drops off, one of Higgins or Noel could take Kirk's starting spot and never look back.
Kirk has a strong contingent of supporters in dynasty circles, but the end is near. Cut your losses and move on.
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