Fantasy Football Sell-Highs: Overachievers to Trade Away? (Week 4)

October 3, 2026

John's fantasy football sell-highs, overvalued players to consider trading away. These players have overperformed early and may bust going forward.

Even players who were formerly among the best at their position in the NFL have rough seasons in which they fail to live up to their ADP. When their fantasy football scoring finish is significantly lower than their ADP, you'd wish you hadn't drafted them at all.

These players are great sell-high candidates because having them on your roster can become quite frustrating; you always think you have to start them because of their upside, but they let you down time and time again with disappointing performances.

For example, in 2025, it was better to cut bait with wide receivers Justin Jefferson and A.J. Brown early in the season, if you could have gotten a good return for them. Even though they're both good players, they were not performing well enough to propel fantasy teams into the playoffs. So who should you sell high on ahead of Week 4 of 2026?

Bucky Irving, RB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

One of the best indicators of future high-level production from a running back is his team's success overall on offense. RBs on bad offenses just tend to have a harder time consistently putting up a lot of fantasy points.

The Buccaneers offense is anything but spectacular this season. Their starting quarterback, Baker Mayfield (thumb), will be out for at least three weeks, but he was struggling greatly to start the season. My analysis suggests his throwing shoulder isn't close to full health -- he injured it last season, and his play has been much worse since.

Rick Stroud: "Is there any injury to Bucky Irving?"
Todd Bowles: "No, he's not on the injury report."
The Injury Report: 🙄 https://t.co/69jwWUAz1v pic.twitter.com/vxZhqzXSwS

— Artel Cato (@MrAJCato) October 1, 2026

Tampa Bay made a horrible mistake when they let former offensive coordinator Liam Coen go. He went to the Jacksonville Jaguars and has turned their offense into one of the best in the NFL, just like the Bucs offense was in 2024, when Coen was the OC. Their head coach is dragging the team down.

Bucs starting running back Bucky Irving (glute) has been oft-injured in his NFL career so far, and he's on what appears to be a collapsing offense. They've been unproductive through three weeks, and now have an undrafted free agent rookie quarterback about to take the reins.

Bucky Irving runs in for 6️⃣

TBvsCIN on FOX/FOX One pic.twitter.com/h0gNZUlkjZ

— NFL (@NFL) September 13, 2026

Irving had one game with double-digit PPR fantasy points this year, and it was in Week 1 against the Cincinnati Bengals. They have the worst run defense in the NFL, and are allowing over 140 rush yards per game to opposing offenses. Irving took 15 carries for just 46 yards in Week 3.

There isn't much reason for optimism for this offense moving forward, and without Coen designing the offense, blocking schemes, and calling the plays, Irving hasn't approached his rookie-season level of dominance.

One good game against the worst rush defense in the NFL is more likely to be an aberration than it is part of a larger trend.

Jaylen Warren, RB, Pittsburgh Steelers

Pittsburgh Steelers running back Jaylen Warren is currently the RB7 overall in PPR fantasy football leagues. He scored 20.6 PPR fantasy points in Week 3 and 15.6 in Week 4 on Thursday Night Football. He's always been an efficient back, forcing missed tackles at a high rate, and is heavily involved in his team's passing attack.

But even though he's been efficient for many seasons now, the Steelers have adamantly refused to give him a workhorse role, instead repeatedly bringing in other RBs and running a committee-style touch split between the backs. The same is true this season, as the Steelers signed RB Rico Dowdle (toe) of Carolina Panthers fame.

I felt Jaylen Warren had several bad reads in this game. Here's an example. Duo Left. LT isn't giving him a great read - but I'm not sure that there's nearly enough to try to bounce this to the B gap.

If Warren stays vertical, then Frazier is in perfect position to cut off… pic.twitter.com/UB9tgaDEJb

— eric smith (@OLCoachSmith63) October 2, 2026

There are other issues with his game as well, such as poor vision. This has kept many RBs from taking on workhorse roles, because even if the other RBs on the roster are inefficient, they may be better at picking up crucial yardage on certain downs and distances.

Warren seems to be the better back for explosive playmaking, but when Dowdle returns, we could see his upside evaporate quickly.

David Montgomery, RB, Houston Texans

Week 1 made us all think that Montgomery was an absolute steal of a fantasy football draft pick in the fourth round of drafts. My analysis was unfortunately skewed by the hype, and I forgot my cardinal rule for drafting running backs -- never draft an RB with an early pick who plays on a bad offense.

Though Montgomery scored three touchdowns in Week 1, he averaged just three yards per carry on 20 rushes. In Week 2, against the worst run defense in the NFL, Monty averaged a paltry sub-1.7 yards per carry mark, proving completely ineffective for his offense.

COUNT 'EM 🗣️ That's three TDs for David Montgomery!

BUFvsHOU on CBS/Paramount+
Stream on @NFLPlus pic.twitter.com/iUc7FIoNID

— NFL (@NFL) September 13, 2026

The Texans offensive line is one of the worst in the NFL. They're bad enough to essentially disqualify Houston from being a serious playoff contender, despite having one of the best defenses in the NFL. And Monty has languished behind the awful run-blocking he's had to deal with.

This offense will likely improve once wide receiver Nico Collins (hamstring) returns. His injury isn't a long-term problem, though the potential of it recurring is. But Montgomery is probably someone you want to sell high on after he has his next multi-touchdown game.

His backup, RB Woody Marks, is used more as a pass-catcher and has been more efficient than he has as a rusher through three games, though not by much.

DK Metcalf, WR, Pittsburgh Steelers

Metcalf had his best game of the season in Week 4, catching five of his nine targets for 115 yards. He signed a huge contract after being traded from his former team, the Seattle Seahawks, but he's failed to live up to expectations. Metcalf has struggled with drops and playing physically at the catch point this season.

As a result, there have been multiple instances where Metcalf is open, but Steelers quarterback Aaron Rodgers doesn't throw the ball his way.

Multiple egregious examples happened, actually. The opponent Cleveland Browns busted coverage against him more than once, but Rodgers failed to get the ball into his hands on some of those occasions. But Metcalf just isn't a physical receiver despite his size. Any level of contention for a catch typically results in a drop or interception.

Emmanuel McNeil-Warren is ready for primetime

Watch how he closes QUICK on both of these balls intended for DK Metcalf to make two high quality pass breakups 👀 pic.twitter.com/brnADB0XoX

— NFL Draft Files (@NFL_DF) October 2, 2026

Rodgers doesn't trust him to haul in the passes thrown his way. He's a WR1 with a solid target share that just has never turned into the dominant force we expected from him after his rookie season. The Steelers offense is also struggling in general, which doesn't help. Rodgers is 42 years old and well past his prime.

Rashee Rice, WR, Kansas City Chiefs

It's strange that a team that added pretty much no talent at receiver and has a good quarterback and solid offense would necessitate selling high on their No. 1 receiver. But production in the NFL is rarely that simple. The short-yardage and heavy designed-target role Rice had last season has shrunk significantly.

The Chiefs were using Rice as a pseudo running back last year, but they have RB Kenneth Walker III now, so they don't need to do that as much. Walker has been targeted 18 times in three games, while Rice's target rate has fallen from last year. Rice actually has one fewer target.

Walker is also handling the goal line role Rice had last season. This is your chance to sell him to a fantasy manager who thinks he's on the verge of a breakout game. He's probably not going to live up to his ADP. The knee injury from the offseason could also still be bothering him.

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