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With the 2023 NFL season just about three weeks away from kicking off, it is time to start placing your award bets if you have not done so already.
For each award in this article, I will be explaining who I think is most likely to win the award, an honorable mention, as well as who has the best value at their current price. It is important to find the best odds when placing a bet. For this reason, I will be including the odds for each player on both DraftKings and FanDuel Sportsbooks.
What is crucial when betting on the NFL award market is to know the recent winners and what they all have in common. Trends matter and this is how you can most accurately predict every NFL award for the 2023 season.
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Let’s be completely straightforward about the MVP in the NFL … it is a QB award. The last 10 winners have all been quarterbacks, with Adrian Peterson being the only-non quarterback to win it in the last 15 seasons. This means you should only be betting on QBs.
The other part of this is the quarterback’s team record. The past six MVPs have won at least 12 games for their team and been the number-one seed in their conference. Additionally, the past five MVPs have all led the entire league in QBR. Lastly, four out of the past five MVPs have been on the highest-scoring offense in the entire league.
Considering all this, I would strictly be targeting QBs that you believe can win 12+ games and have a shot at the one seed in their conference. They should also be in an offense that can be very high-powered and score among the top of the league.
My Pick: Lamar Jackson (+1500 on DraftKings, +1600 on FanDuel)
In 2019, Lamar Jackson became just the second quarterback in history to win the MVP unanimously, sharing the accomplishment with Tom Brady. The Heisman winner totaled 4333 yards and 43 touchdowns in just 15 games while leading the Ravens to 14 wins on the season, as well as the number one seed in the AFC. Jackson did this while having no reliable targets behind Mark Andrews and Marquise Brown.
With the additions of Odell Beckham Jr., Zay Flowers, and Nelson Agholor this offseason, along with the firepower of Andrews, Rashod Bateman, and J.K. Dobbins, the former MVP has the best weapons of his career by far.
Despite all this, the biggest change in Baltimore is the hiring of Georgia Offensive Coordinator Todd Monken. Monken has heavily emphasized the team going more spread offense and pass-heavy, even saying that he wants to bring back “Louisville Lamar.” Assuming he and the rest of the offense are healthy, Jackson can get his second MVP and lead this team to another 12+ win season with ease.
Honorable mention: Josh Allen (+850 on DraftKings, +700 on FanDuel)
Best Value: Daniel Jones (+5000 on DraftKings, +7500 on FanDuel)
This is a long shot, hence why you can get it at 75-1. However, Daniel Jones improved in every aspect in his first season under Brian Daboll, while leading the team to their first playoff appearance since 2016 and their first playoff win since 2011. The former 6th-overall pick got a massive four-year $160 million contract from the Giants, showing that the team has faith in him to be their franchise guy.
The team added a ton of help for Jones as they traded for star tight end Darren Waller, signed former Colt Parris Campbell, and drafted Tennessee speedster, Jalin Hyatt. Waller gives Jones a real number-one target which is crucial to elevate his game to the next level. The toughest part of this bet is that you’re essentially betting the Giants to be a 12+ win team in a tough division. However, with these odds, I would happily take the chance on it. Guys like Jordan Love, Kenny Pickett, and Mac Jones being favored over Daniel Jones for the award this year is very questionable.
2023 Offensive Player of the Year
As a result of the MVP being a clear QB award, Offensive Player of The Year has turned into a non-quarterback award. The last four winners have all been a wide receiver or a running back, with the only QB to win it in the last six seasons being Patrick Mahomes in 2018. While it is possible for a quarterback to swoop in and take this award, I would only bet on receivers and running backs considering the way the award has shifted in the past few seasons.
The past four winners have all led their position in yards, and receptions/carries. When deciding what receiver to bet on, you should have confidence in them leading the league in receptions and receiving yards. When betting on a running back you should have confidence in them leading all RBs in touches and yards.
All four winners have also been on an 11+ win team, so you should have some type of confidence in the player's team making the playoffs at the very least when betting on this award.
My Pick: Tyreek Hill (+2000 on both DraftKings and FanDuel)
I strongly believe that Hill would have won this award over Justin Jefferson if Tua Tagovailoa played all 17 games. Hill put up an absolute monster first season with Miami ending with 119 catches on 170 targets for 1742 total yards and eight touchdowns. Hill was on pace for 123 catches for 1841 yards and 10 touchdowns in 17 games with his quarterback.
These stats would have won him the award and Hill can get right back to the same production in 2023. Hill had a ridiculous 29% target share in his first season with Mike McDaniel and the team. I don’t expect this to change much at all as Hill and Jaylen Waddle are virtually the entire pass offense for the Dolphins. Hill should be the favorite or very close to it for this award.
Honorable Mention: Nick Chubb (+1700 on DK, +1800 on FanDuel)
Best Value: Stefon Diggs (+3000 on DraftKings, +3500 on FanDuel)
Diggs has shown frustration with the team’s struggles and their tendency to steer away from targeting him in the second half of big games. We know that the Allen/Diggs duo is one of the best in the entire league and this could be the season that they secure that number one spot.
Diggs was on pace for 136 catches, 1860 receiving yards, and 13 touchdowns through his first nine games in 2022. Josh Allen’s UCL injury in Week 9 hurt this significantly as Diggs averaged just seven targets a game through the last five matchups of the season. There was a very noticeable difference in the play of Allen and the offense as a whole once the injury occurred.
With Allen being fully healthy, Diggs can very well have the best season of his career and take home this award. This is incredible value and worth a shot as Diggs has shown that he can dominate to the level of any receiver in the league.
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2023 Defensive Player of the Year
A defensive lineman or edge rusher has won the Defensive Player of the Year award in eight out of the last 10 seasons, with all eight of them having double-digit sacks and multiple fumbles forced. Nine out of the 10 all helped get their teams to the playoffs.
Considering this, I am specifically targeting edge rushers that have a huge sack potential and are on a team that I think will get in the playoffs. While players like T.J. Watt and Myles Garrett will have 15+ sacks and dominate as they’ve been doing, there is a strong possibility that their teams can miss the playoffs.
My Pick: Micah Parsons (+500 on DraftKings, +450 on FanDuel)
Parsons finished second in DPOY during each of the first two years of his career. The Penn St. product was named first-team All-Pro in both seasons and has racked up at least 13 sacks and three forced fumbles each year.
Parsons has made it clear that he will be on the defensive line much more often giving him even more opportunities to rush the QB. He has a legitimate chance to lead the entire league in sacks with the increased pass rushes that he’ll have. The Cowboys have won 12+ games in the past two seasons and Parsons has been the engine of the defense as he’s only getting better going into his third season.
Honorable Mention: Nick Bosa (+1200 on DK, +1400 on FanDuel)
Best Value: Joey Bosa (+4500 on DraftKings, +3500 on FanDuel)
This is the toughest award to find a value that can also realistically win the award. Bosa has the best shot to steal this award if he has his real breakout where he racks up 15+ sacks. While the former 3rd-overall pick has struggled with staying healthy, he has still shown that he has the traits to consistently be a top pass rusher in the league.
At 45-1, I’m willing to take a shot on this considering this Chargers team can be very good and Bosa may very well have his best season yet.
2023 Offensive Rookie of the Year
This award is the most diverse position-wise as the winners have been split almost evenly over the past 10 seasons between quarterbacks, running backs, and wide receivers. Seven out of the last 10 winners were drafted inside the top 12 while the other three winners weren’t drafted inside the top 60.
There is no specific position that you should be targeting when betting on this award. Instead, I would look at which rookies will have the most usage right away and the highest upside to produce at an elite level in their first season.
My Pick: Bijan Robinson (+275 on DraftKings, +300 on FanDuel)
This one doesn't take much explaining at all. A generational RB drafted with the 8th overall pick into a run-first offense and behind what is one of the top run lines in the entire league. If he is healthy for the entirety of the season, I don’t see a world where Robinson doesn't take home Offensive Rookie of The Year.
Honorable Mention: Jahmyr Gibbs (+1000 on DraftKings, +900 on FanDuel)
Best Value: Zay Flowers (+3000 on DraftKings, +2500 on FanDuel)
The Ravens selected Flowers with the 22nd overall pick and he has been constantly praised throughout the offseason. NBC Sports’ Peter King described him as “the most impressive rookie I have seen in six camps.” The Boston College product is an NFL-ready route runner and is the most explosive receiver from the 2023 draft class.
As mentioned, Baltimore is expected to be more pass-heavy with Todd Monken at the helm and Flowers will get a ton of opportunity right away. While he does have some hefty competition for targets with Mark Andrews, Odell Beckham Jr., and Rashod Bateman there, the skill set that Flowers possess is very unique and should secure him the team’s slot role immediately.
For a very talented and explosive rookie that will start in one of the highest-powered offenses in the entire league, +3000 is a steal and one of the best values in the entire award market right now.
2023 Defensive Rookie of the Year
While the majority of this award’s winners have been a type of pass rusher, there have been three cornerbacks and one middle linebacker that have won the award in the past 10 seasons. Being a rookie with double-digit sacks would lock this award up in most cases.
The top pass rusher in the draft has an edge over the rest of the class because of this. However, we have seen that a cornerback can win this award if they establish themselves as a top corner immediately.
My Pick: Will Anderson Jr. (+350 on DraftKings, +400 on FanDuel)
This one doesn’t take much explaining either. I would be very surprised if this award doesn’t go to Anderson or Jalen Carter, assuming no unfortunate injuries occur.
Anderson dominated in his three seasons at Alabama totaling 34.5 sacks over those years, which stands as the fifth most in college football history. The four ahead of him all played one more season which goes to show how remarkable what Anderson did was. The third-overall pick has the tools to be an elite pass-rusher for a very long-time pick and will make an immediate impact on Houston's defense.
Honorable Mention: Jalen Carter (+700 on DraftKings and FanDuel)
Best Value: Deonte Banks (+3000 on DraftKings, +3500 on FanDuel)
The athletic profile of Deonte Banks is off the charts. He flat-out crushed the NFL combine where he clocked in at 4.35 on the 40-yard dash, measured at a 42” vertical, and posted an 11’4” broad jump. The Giants selected Banks with the 24th-overall pick and he has an opportunity to start Week 1 alongside Adoree’ Jackson.
If Anderson or Carter somehow do not win this award, Banks has a very solid shot at it, considering the big plays that he can make early on for the Giants with his athleticism. The Maryland product is an incredible value at +3500. 16 players being favored over him for the award on FanDuel makes absolutely no sense.
2023 Coach of the Year
Nine out of the last 10 Coach of the Year winners have won 11+ games. The criteria that I would make sure to set is that the coach must lead their team to the playoffs and double-digit wins while exceeding some sort of expectations. For example, the coach of a team that has constantly been in the playoffs will more than likely not win this award.
Looking at teams that have improved significantly from last season is a great place to start, as well as the team’s schedule for the upcoming season and how likely they are to get to those double-digit wins.
My Pick: Arthur Smith (+1400 on DraftKings and FanDuel)
When looking at teams that can go from sub-500 to securing a playoff spot, the Falcons are at the top of the list. The team has the second-softest schedule in the league, giving them a legit chance to get double-digit wins and the division title in 2023. Atlanta went 7-10 in Arthur Smith’s first season as head coach, with 8 of those 10 losses being by just one possession.
With the various additions on defense and the huge addition of running back Bijan Robinson to the offense, the Falcons will be much improved and will need Desmond Ridder to just be average for them to win a lot of games. This will allow Arthur Smith to take home the award.
Honorable Mention: Robert Saleh (+1600 on both DraftKings and FanDuel)
Best Value: Dennis Allen (+2200 on DraftKings, +2500 on FanDuel)
This is a very similar situation to the Arthur Smith pick. The Saints have the softest schedule in the entire league and also have a legit chance to get doubt-digit wins. The team went 7-10 in Allen’s first season as coach and has improved drastically. The addition of Derek Carr at quarterback is the most significant and the one that may very well determine this award.
When betting on Coach of the Year this season, I would stick with Smith or Allen to win it. This is considering that at least one of those two teams will more than likely get double-digit wins and make the playoffs in 2023. It may even be smart to bet on both because of this.
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