Keegan Akin (SP, BAL) - 2021 Fantasy Baseball Draft Sleepers

Baltimore Orioles starting pitcher Keegan Akin is an undervalued draft target and fantasy baseball sleeper for 2021. Jamie Steed evaluates Akin's value based on current ADP.

Keegan Akin made his MLB debut for the Baltimore Orioles during the 2020 season and the former second-round draft pick didn't disgrace himself. Akin ended the season with a 4.56 ERA and 1.44 WHIP from his eight appearances (six starts) as well as striking out 35 batters in 25.2 IP.

Akin is expected to start the 2021 season in the Orioles rotation and despite being on a team with a four-year streak of having a losing record, Akin did display enough qualities last year to suggest he can be a useful pitcher for fantasy teams.

As we take a deeper delve into his 2020 numbers and his Minor League career, we will see a picture painted of a developing starting pitcher who looks like he's on the brink of making a name for himself in 2021.

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ADP & Projections

Akin's current ADP is ~557 and 214th among all pitchers so unless you're playing in the deepest of leagues, it's unlikely you'll see Akin get drafted at all. If we look at his projections for 2020, it's not difficult to see why.

Why do I think I know better than the projections? Well, I don't. But I do think he can outperform them. The projections generally don't benefit those with such small sample sizes for Akin, all they have to go on is 25.2 Major League innings. And in Akin's case, his actual numbers weren't reflective of his underlying numbers.

Underlying numbers

Akin's 4.56 ERA is considerably higher than his underlying numbers. Last year, he had a 3.85 xFIP and 3.71 SIERA along with a .358 BABIP. Akin's expected numbers were also lower than his actuals too, furthering the opinion he was unlucky last year.

All combined, Akin should feel aggrieved he had an ERA north of 4.00, let alone over 4.50.

Akin's strikeout numbers are particularly impressive. Although he had a league-average walk-rate (BB%) of 8.6%, his strikeout-rate (K%) was 30.2% which was in the 81st percentile, ranking higher than Jack Flaherty (28.8%), Carlos Carrasco (29.3%) and Ian Anderson (29.7%0. All three also had a higher walk-rate than Akin. In fact, if we look at all four pitcher's numbers, Akin compares pretty favorably.

If you were to base 2021 rankings purely off of the above numbers, you can make a case for Akin being number one from that group. Yet the other three all have an ADP inside the top 100.

A look at Akin's six starts individually also offers up optimism of a breakout season. Of his six starts, two came on the road against Toronto Blue Jays (in Buffalo which was the most hitter-friendly ballpark in 2020), two against the New York Yankees (one road and one home game), one against the Atlanta Braves and one against the Boston Red Sox.

In two of those starts, Akin gave up four earned runs in just 3.2 IP combined. In three starts, Akin didn't allow a single earned run across a total of 14.2 IP, in which he struck out 23. When he was good, he was very good although the longest outing Akin had was the 5.1 IP shutout against the Yankees.

There's plenty of positives there but there is one big negative from last season. Despite only giving up three homers (two of which came in his last appearance at the Buffalo launching pad), Akin ranked in the 2nd percentile for hard-hit rate, 5th percentile for exit velocity and 30th percentile for barrel-rate.

2021 Expectations

Akin's pitch usage could ultimately be what lands him success as a starter. His 2018 season in Double-A earned Akin the award of Baltimore's Minor League pitcher of the year (137.2 IP, 14 wins, 3.27 ERA, 1.25 WHIP) but his 2019 campaign in Triple-A didn't live up to expectations as he posted a 4.73 ERA over 112.1 IP. Akin did manage to raise his strikeout rate from 24.8% (2018) to 26.0% K% (2019) largely due to a stronger focus on developing his offspeed pitches.

Akin was throwing his fastball over 75% of the time in 2018 and that dropped to around 60% in 2019, offering him the best chance of being starting pitcher as opposed to a bullpen option as he progressed up the levels. Last year, Akin threw his fastball just 62% of the time so the early signs are that he'll continue mixing in his changeup (17.4%), curveball (10.4%) and slider (10.2%). The left-handed Akin almost exclusively used his changeup and curveball against right-handed hitters.

While the Orioles aren't likely to contend for a playoff place any time soon, they have put together a better team on paper than in recent years and should help Akin chalk up some wins. If your league counts quality starts instead of wins, Akin might be a bit of a statistical black hole.

Another slight on Akin's fantasy value is having to make half his starts in a home ballpark that plays as very hitter-friendly and also in the AL East at similarly unforgiving ballparks for pitchers. Akin has shown very good strikeout numbers and while his ERA was a bit inflated, it could come down and align with his underlying numbers much more closely.

Akin has shown positive early signs and a full season in 2021 could see further growth. He could easily end the year with 120.0 IP, 4.00 ERA, 1.35 WHIP, six wins and 140 K. For a pitcher going largely undrafted, that provides good value.

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