I have the honor of tackling the ever-so-deep class of outfielders for you, the esteemed points-league owner. We realize that many sites tailor their analysis toward the standard rotisserie league, but we love everyone equally. That said, we have to recognize that standard 5x5 categories are also much easier to create white-label rankings that anyone else can use since the variation tends to be less than in points leagues.

There's never anything wrong with asking us for clarification on what we were thinking either, but I know (and directly address) that there are several corrections needed to be made, but that's why we call these early rankings and get to honing our product as we review the ranks.  Of course, they're still a great tool and I'd stand by them in a heartbeat, so let's check in on RotoBaller’s 2018 fantasy baseball points league rankings for outfielders in the month of January.

This round comes to you courtesy of Bill Dubiel, Chris Zolli, Kyle Richardson and myself, Nick Mariano. You can also see more of our staff's 2018 fantasy baseball rankings and analysis columns for mixed leagues, dynasty leagues, AL/NL leagues, 2018 impact prospects and more.

• BvP matchups data (Batter vs. Pitcher)
• PvB matchups data (Pitcher vs. Batter)
• Who should I start? Fantasy baseball comparisons
• Who should I pickup? Fantasy baseball comparisons
• Fantasy baseball trade analyzer
• MLB Props finder tool
• Fantasy baseball closer depth charts

2018 Fantasy Baseball Points League Rankings: Outfield (January)

 
Tier One

This is still Mike Trout’s world. Despite missing around 40 games with a hand injury, the 26-year-old phenom still finished second in the Majors in offensive fWAR. I stipulate that because most of us don’t utilize defensive stats. In a world where everyone and their mother that stayed healthy throughout 2017 got to anchor us with stat lines that reflected the crazy home-run trend, Trout’s shortened season deflated what was likely going to be a 40/30 campaign, as he still had 33 dingers and 22 bags (only caught four times!) in just 507 plate appearances. He had at least 639 PAs in the previous five seasons - we can usually bank on durability here. Few need reasons to take Mike Trout No. 1, but this is to further illustrate his potential and talk down anyone who may be wavering.

I'm also not worried about Mookie Betts at all, as his age-24 "down season" still saw him essentially produce a 25/25 season while topping the century mark in runs and RBI. This man is only 25 years old and while Boston's lineup is not the juggernaut of years past, his five-tool skill set is a host unto itself and that .264 average is ripe for regression thanks to a low .268 BABIP. Prior to 2017, his career BABIP was a full 50 points higher. He drew 77 walks, not including nine intentional ones, compared to just 79 strikeouts. He's a points-league stud.

Tier Two

First of all, I should state that my OF rankings will look a bit lower because I was the only one to rank more than one pitcher in their top 10. I ranked four in there because of the points-league tilt, so just be aware. That said, I definitely didn’t notice that Marcell Ozuna was as low as 49 on my overall board, he’ll be in the low-to-mid 30s next time. Last season’s 37 HR/124 RBI is best treated as the ceiling, but I think topping 100 runs is possible with St. Louis.

I’m all-in on the Giancarlo Stanton train given his lineup and hitting environment. I know his ~24% strikeout rate is high and dings points-league owners, but I need to bake in the 150-RBI potential and this is where I’ve settled.

Tier Three

Not only was Starling Marte shut down from the Dominican Winter League with a left-hand injury, but his team is crumbling, ahem, rebuilding around him as he continues to re-establish himself after a suspension-marred 2017. When everyone else was slugging homers, Marte only mustered seven longballs in 339 PAs, tagging along an uninspiring .275 batting average. His saving grace was going 21-for-25 on the basepaths, but I don’t get why he’s viewed so much differently than A.J. Pollock, say. Don’t pay for the name.

Oh, and I can officially say that my Rhys Hoskins ranking suffered the same fate as the Ozuna slippage. I thought things looked good on my positional tabs, but they weren’t. This is our Spring Training month, but I can safely say that he should be in the 35-40 range. Everyone also loves Domingo Santana, he was on quite a few of my teams last year, but I’m worried about his 29.3 percent K rate. It’s great that he’s running now and that double-digit walk rate is helpful, but I expect a .340 BABIP rather than .363 and that 31 percent HR/FB rate to slip toward 25-27 percent. Nothing huge, but the sticker price in points leagues might leave little room for profit.

Tier Four

Originally, I had a big ol' paragraph here going off on how buying Christian Yelich within the top 100 was a poor move given the climate in Miami. Of course, all that changed when the Brewer Nation attacked traded for the 26-year-old. Yelich raised his fly-ball rate from 20 percent to 25.2 percent last season, which could translate to about 22-25 homers in '18 thanks to Miller Park (and being out of Miami). The Brewers also finished '17 with the second-most stolen bases as a team, whereas the Marlins stood at 10th despite having Dee Gordon. HRs and SBs should both rise, and the counting stats in this lineup compared to Miami's Quad-A squad could be nearly double. That's a bit hyperbolic, but not as much as I wish it was for the sake of parity. Yelich will move toward my top 50 next time around.

Also, Michael Conforto shouldn’t even be as high as I have him, let alone my fellow rankers. I know the Mets made some changes to their medical staff, but unless they hired Billy Crystal as the medic from The Princess Bride, I'm not buying it.

Tier Five

I was bearish on Lorenzo Cain until he signed somewhere, but now I have to put him around 90. I still worry about his durability and Milwaukee's current depth leading to more off-days than anyone would like, but 140 games wouldn't be awful here with the aforementioned aggressiveness on the basepaths in Milwaukee. I feel wrongfully bearish on Matt Olson here, as his 9.7 barrels per batted-ball event was seventh-best out of all MLBers with at least 120 batted-ball events. His 41.4 percent HR/FB rate will regress, but so will his horrid .238 BABIP, equating to a wash. I’m likely too bullish on Chris Taylor, whose .361 BABIP will probably step back like Santana’s, so I’ll move him toward 125-130 next time around.

Tier Six

Okay, I dislike Jay Bruce and how his swinging-strike rate has gone from 11.1 percent, to 12 percent, to 13 percent in the past couple of seasons, but the guy is still mashing and I shouldn’t have him that low. I also have trust issues with Michael Brantley’s health, but my PA projection had an error in it -- he’s more of a 150s player hitting in the middle of that offense. Another guy I’m trailing on is Manuel Margot, who I think is still a year away from putting it all together. I like the second-half power surge he had (.161 ISO, up from .129), but I think a 15/15 player on San Diego needs to chill.

Tier Seven

I’ve despised Jackie Bradley for a long while now, and I’m not going to stop now. He will be on zero of my teams until he can prove a consistent approach at that dish -- he hit .204 in the second half -- but at least his defense will keep him in the lineup. It’d be unfair to lay into Brantley’s health and not admit that Dexter Fowler’s biggest con is how he’s topped 125 games just once in the last five seasons, but leading off in front of Tommy Pham, Matt Carpenter and Ozuna is good eatin’.

Tier Eight

I love Brandon Belt in points leagues. I usually try to scoop him late thanks to his solid XBH contributions and a BB rate around 15 percent, but I think he holds even greater value in 2018. He still tied a career-high with 18 homers in ‘17 despite tallying just 451 PAs (thanks a lot, concussion) and he trimmed his swinging-strike rate for the third-straight season. The additions of Andrew McCutchen and Evan Longoria should increase the counting stats here, making the unheralded commodity a worthy get.

If I could count on at least 500 PAs out of Aaron Hicks then I’d be all aboard around the low-200s, but alas, that is one crowded picnic. It seems I like Kole Calhoun more than I should, I didn’t really reevaluate him after Ian Kinsler was added, but batting fifth for LAA should still be worthy of the 240-250 range.

Tier Nine

I was originally sad about how high Randal Grichuk ended up on my overall sheet, but I’m good with it now that he’s likely going to see everyday playing time for Toronto. Sorry, Teoscar Hernandez truthers, but hopefully he can squeeze out Curtis Granderson and Steve Pearce in left. I have a hard time getting excited about Delino DeShields anymore, and I think Willie Calhoun’s emergence will end up squeezing DD into irrelevance. Ryan Rua and even Jurickson Profar will steal ABs, and they’ll likely come at DeShields’ expense. At this point in the draft, I’m happily drafting talent upside rather than a stable job, which makes Jose Martinez a prime target.

Tier Ten

This is where delusion can start to set in, but here are the initial thoughts that hit me: I need to get Travis Jankowski ranked, he’s got too much speed potential not to be. Those requiring one last outfielder late should be happy to round out their squad with Nick Markakis, who has maintained a double-digit BB rate while chipping in at least 38 doubles in each of his last three seasons. Atlanta is on the up-and-up, meaning his ~50 XBHs, 80 runs, 80 RBI and 10 percent walk rate should leave you satisfied.

Tier Eleven

There’s one player in here that I believe warrants much more consideration, and that guy is Mikie Mahtook. Not only is his a fun name to say, but he should be Detroit’s everyday leadoff hitter with Kinsler in Cali. The 28-year-old got off to a cold start in ‘17, but delivered a .287/.349/.469 slash line with 24 XBH (10 2B, 6 3B, 8 HR) and 43 runs scored while going a perfect 5-for-5 on steal attempts from June 25 on. That date was when he started getting everyday starts, primarily in centerfield, and if the .181 ISO and sneaky speed can continue, then we’re looking at a possible 90-15-60-10-.290 year from Mr. Mahtook. I’ll Mah-Take that risk for a buck.

More MLB Rankings and ADP Analysis

LIKE ROTOBALLER?

CLICK HERE, ENTER ROTOBALLER.COM, THEN CHECK THE BOX