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These rankings are derived from my 15 step formula. The Keeper Valuation Formula uses the players’ age, draft round, number of teams in the league, current stats, projected stats, games played percentage, positional value, and some secret squirrel statistical math. The product is a true Keeper Value for each player.
Consider the derived Values the same as a discount sales sticker at the supermarket. Essentially, my keeper values are the amount of discount a fantasy owner is gaining or NOT gaining by keeping a specific player at a specific draft round. The values range from 0-100. The values can also be negative for players who will not give fantasy owners the same value in 2016 that they paid for in 2015. For these specific rankings, 12 team, 5x5 scoring, 23 man roster, Rotisserie league settings were used.
Editor's Note: Be sure to also head over to our 2016 fantasy baseball rankings assistant. We have released our new rankings tool - you can easily filter, sort, and export all sorts of rankings for mixed leagues, AL/NL only, top prospects, dynasty formats, more keeper values and more! It's all in one place, and all free.
2016 Top Outfield Keeper Values
1. Bryce Harper WAS, 23 (Third Round) Keeper Valuation Formula Score: 114.32
2015 Stats: 118 R, 42 HR, 99 RBI, 6 SB, .330 BA
In 2015 we finally witnessed the potential of Bryce Harper fully play out. Reaching 600 PA for the first time, the National League MVP had a season to remember. He ranked second in the league in R, and finished third in HR and BA. Nothing too exciting yet, right? Allow me to continue. Harper led the league is ISO, OPS, wOBA, wRC+, and WAR. His .461 wOBA and 197 wRC+ were the highest the league has seen since Barry Bonds in 2004. Now we're excited.
Harper greatly benefited from an increased patience and discipline at the plate we had not seen from him previously. His 19.0 BB% was a career high and ranked only behind Joey Votto. He also chased pitches outside the zone at a career low rate (28.2 O-Swing%), and dropped his whiff rate to a respectable 10.8%. This resulted in the sixth highest BB/K ratio in the league.
It wasn't just an increase of not swinging that catapulted Harper into the fantasy elite, however. By looking at his spray charts from 2015 and 2012, his second best season by WAR, you can quickly see the dramatic shift to the right side of the field and fewer balls on the ground. 2015 was his first season with a GB/FB ratio under 1.00, and he increased his Pull% to 45.4 compared to his previous high of 39.2. The result was the consistent hard contact we have been expecting since we watched him plaster the outer-dome walls of Tropicana Field in high school, which translated to a powerful 40.9 Hard%. 
After a disappointing 2014, Bryce Harper lasted until the third round on draft day in 2015, making him one of the greatest values of the year. This is probably the most obvious keeper score write up of the season, but it is still great to see the formula give credit to what was an absolute monster of a year. Even if you played in a deeper league and took Harper in the first round, he would still be in the top three of outfield keeper values. Remember, this stud is younger than Kris Bryant. Keep at all costs.
2. A.J. Pollock ARI, 28 (15th Round) Score: 108.25
2015 Stats: 111 R, 20 HR, 76 RBI, 39 SB, .315 BA
What a fantastic surprise Pollock was for fantasy owners in 2015. Like Harper, this was also Pollock's first season above 600 PA. Hitting atop of the Arizona lineup, he ranked third in the league in R. His excellent BA was the product of the fourth most H in baseball (192), and came with an extremely modest .338 BABIP. In fact, out of the top 10 BA, only Jose Altuve and Buster Posey had lower BABIP than Pollock, but both own a much lower GB/FB ratio (1.30, 1.33 respectively).
Pollock can flat out fly. He swiped the third most bases in the league, and his +32 NSB was second to only Dee Gordon. In addition to the speed, Pollock owned a very healthy 1.74 GB/FB ratio, hitting only a 29 FB%. Despite this great combination for a high BA, and the proof-which was the high BA, Pollock's 7.2 IFH% was much too low for a speedster. For example, Nelson Cruz also owned a 7.2 IFH%. During Pollock's hot 2nd half, it actually dropped to a microscopic 3.3%. This was lower and both James Loney and Kyle Schwarber. Between the low BABIP and stupid low IFH%, it is very safe to expect at the very least, a 2016 repeat of that .315 BA that ranked seventh best in the bigs.
In fantasy baseball, the best players have the ability to cover every category. A.J. Pollock can do just that. He was only one double and one SB away from being the only player in the league to reach 40/20/40 (2B, HR, SB). After the All-Star break he hit .335 with a .926 OPS, .204 ISO, 20 SB, and only 32 SO. Out of the 20 players that reached 10 SB in the second half, Pollock owned the highest ISO. That is versatility. Compare the ISO/P heat map between Pollock and Charlie Blackmon, who ranked second in SB in 2015.
Pollock is leaving the 2016 draft boards early in the second round. Obviously, against his 15th round ADP from 2015, this represents a huge return for owners in keeper leagues. Anyone that hits in front of Paul Goldschmidt and owns a .367 OBP is going to score a grotesque amount of runs. Adding one of MLB's top speed/power combos to the stat line, is just the cherry on top.
3. Mike Trout LAA, 24 (First Round) Score: 99.18
2015 Stats: 104 R, 41 HR, 90 RBI, 11 SB, .299 BA
Make no mistake about it, the path to the top spot in fantasy baseball still travels through Mike Trout. Since 2012, he owns the leagues highest WAR by almost 10 whole points (37.8), and has an enormous lead on Offensive runs above average (253.2). Sure his 2015 fantasy numbers were not the best we have seen, but taking into consideration that the Angels ranked 20th in runs scored, Trout was his usual magical self. He set a career high mark in HR, ISO (.290), and OPS (.991).
Trout made great strides at the plate that resulted in his career-best power season. The contributing factors were more line drives, and consistent solid contact. His 24.4 LD% and 40.8 Hard% were both career bests, and resulted in a 25.3 HR/FB% compared to 17.8 in 2014. But probably most important to the success, was cutting down on the whiffs. He struck out "only" 158 times in 2015, a respectable 26 fewer than the previous year.
The most puzzling trend in Trout's game is on the base paths. The 11 SB (2 after All-Star break) were a career low, and extremely disappointing after swiping 49 as a rookie in 2012. He is still making his attempts, 18 in back to back seasons, but is becoming much less effective. The previous three seasons saw NSB of 44, 26, and 14, respectively for Trout. In 2015, he only converted 11 of those 18 attempts, resulting in a concerning +4 NSB. This was the same total as 37 year old Jimmy Rollins, and 33 year old Ian Kinsler. Not the most encouraging company to be in as a 24 year old who can make it to first base in 3.9 seconds. Dee Gordon comparatively runs a 3.6, and had 58 SB.
Despite the decreasing SB totals, there may not be another hitter as pure and reliable as Mike Trout. His bat speed is phenomenal, as his eye-popping 45.3 wFB easily topped the all others in the league, and no one makes it look so smooth. Despite Harper's higher keeper value score, Trout still stands atop of the 2016 fantasy draft ADP. He joins Paul Goldschmidt as one of only two offensive players with a 2015 first round ADP to still score above 75.00 in the formula. So unless you have the first pick in this years draft, in which case bypass the keeper selection and just draft him again, Mike Trout is more than worth losing your spot in the opening round. It even gives you more time to grab a beer before the second picks roll around. That is a true team player.
4. Mookie Betts BOS, 23 (Sixth Round) Score: 91.98
2015 Stats: 92 R, 18 HR, 77 RBI, 21 SB, .291 BA
After showing a flash of brilliance in his first taste of The Bigs in 2014, Mookie Betts followed through with an excellent 2015 campaign. The youngster missed out on joining the 20/20 club by only two HR, and showed excellent gap power, with 42 doubles and eight triples. This guy is a contact machine, striking out only 82 times all season, sporting a 86.6 Contact% and a minuscule 5.4 SwStr%. He hit sliders better than anyone else in the league (13.3 wSL), and finished with the second best wCB (8.5).
The 21 SB total does zero justice to the wheels Betts possesses. He led the league with a 8.3 Base Running Runs Above Average, and owned the 10th highest Speed score (6.7). However, one would expect a higher than average GB/FB ratio with such a fast contact hitter. But in 2015, he posted a 0.90 GB/FB, with a 42.4 FB% that was tied with HR-or-bust Joc Pederson. Despite the large amount of fly balls Betts hit, he hit only a 8.2 HR/FB% for the second straight year, which ranked second lowest among the top 25 FB% in the league.
A big key to success for Betts was his increase in pulling the ball to the left side in 2015. He increased his Pull% from 34.6 in 2014, to 40.3. 16 of his 18 HR were pulled to LF. He also owned the third highest BA in the league when pulling the ball (.459), with a 1.303 OPS and 27.1 HR/FB%. If this increase in Pull% continues to increase, then we will certainly see that 8.2 HR/FB% increase as well, which will lead to more HR.
Mookie Betts is still only 23 years old, makes great contact, is fast, and is pulling the ball more which is resulting in decent power. What is not to like? He hits atop of the fourth ranked offense in the league (runs scored, 2015), owned a lowly .310 BABIP, and has shown no durability issues in his career. Pencil in his first All-Star appearance in what will be a 20/20 season, and enjoy in keeper leagues, especially if you managed to snag him in or around his sixth round 2015 ADP.
#feats: Why Mookie Betts played like a more athletic version of Pujols and Fielder in 2015 https://t.co/6KqDnlKIpv
— Alex Speier (@alexspeier) January 27, 2016
5. Lorenzo Cain KC, 29 (17th Round) Score: 91.79
2015 Stats: 101 R, 16 HR, 72 RBI, 28 SB, .307 BA
On their way to winning the World Series, Kansas City was led offensively by Lorenzo Cain. He finished in the top 10 in R, SB, and WAR in what was quite the breakout season. Cain enjoyed career highs in all five fantasy categories (tied SB), as well as ISO (.171), WAR (6.6), wRC+ (129), and OPS (.838).
The speed was never in doubt for Cain, as his 7.4 Speed score was tied for second best in the league. But he made giant leaps in every other offensive facet of his game in 2015. He cut his K% down to 16.2 from 21.5 in 2014, while increasing his Contact% by five points. He hit five percent more fly balls, but reduced his IFFB% down to a remarkable 2.8, meaning he was squaring up the ball at a much higher rate. He was hitting the ball harder, 31.9 Hard% compared to 21.6 in '14, which helped more than double his HR/FB% to 11.2.
Predicting another power outburst for Cain is difficult based on his past (five HR in 2014), but the SB and BA will again be among the best in the league, and you can bet your bottom dollar that hitting at the top of that lineup will produce close to 100 R yet again in 2016. For you DFS players, he particularly enjoys hitting at Kaufman Stadium, as his .337 BA was the seventh best home BA. Any player with a top 10 WAR, drastically helping your fantasy team in at least three categories, with an ADP in the teens is a no-brainer keeper selection.
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