RADIO
These rankings are derived from my 15 step formula. The Keeper Valuation Formula uses the players’ age, draft round, number of teams in the league, current stats, projected stats, games played percentage, positional value, and some secret squirrel statistical math. The product is a true Keeper Value for each player.
Consider the derived Values the same as a discount sales sticker at the supermarket. Essentially, my keeper values are the amount of discount a fantasy owner is gaining or NOT gaining by keeping a specific player at a specific draft round. The values range from 0-100. The values can also be negative for players who will not give fantasy owners the same value in 2016 that they paid for in 2015. For these specific rankings, 12 team, 5x5 scoring, 23 man roster, Rotisserie league settings were used.
If you like this type of column, be sure to also check out the rest of our 2016 fantasy baseball rankings articles. You can find the rest of my keeper values articles, prospect/dynasty rankings, positional tiers and more in one easy place
2016 Top Shortstop Keeper Values
1. Carlos Correa HOU, 21 (Last Round) Keeper Formula Score: 122.67
2015 Stats: 52 R, 22 HR, 68 RBI, 14 SB, .279 BA
Wow, what a first impression for the American League Rookie of the Year. Sure, we knew he was the first overall pick in 2012, but fantasy owners seemed to have forgot about him after a broken leg shortened his 2014 campaign. But after a Jed Lowrie injury, the Astros called up Correa in June, and fantasy rosters were forever changed. In just 432 MLB PA, he hit 22 HR. That is a HR every 19.6 PA. Compare that with NL Rookie of the Year, Kris Bryant, who hit a HR in every 25 PA. If Correa was able to maintain that same pace over a 630 PA season, it equates to 32 bombs. Unreasonable? Not really, considering that is exactly how many he hit in 2015 combined with his time in AA and AAA. His .233 ISO, .365 wOBA, .857 OPS, and 133 wRC+ were all tops at the Shortstop position. In addition to his impressive power, Correa can run. Across three levels in 2015, he had 32 SB. In only 249 PA in 2014, he stole 20.
There really wasn't anything that Correa didn't do in 2015. He showed patience at the plate, as his 9.3 BB% ranked second among shortstops (min. 400 PA). He hit the ball to all parts of the field, with a respectable 30.4 Oppo%, and of course he hit the ball hard (32.9 Hard%). He even showed that he can handle playing under the toughest pressures, as he hit .350, 2 HR, with a 1.081 OPS in the ALDS versus the Kansas City Royals. Not bad for a kid that just enjoyed his first legal alcoholic beverage in September. 
Until you see him tower over Jose Altuve in the infield, it can be tough to remember how big Correa is. At 6'4", 210 lbs., there is no questioning the power exhibited in his rookie season. Based on his past, there is no reason to doubt the speed, either. He is a legitimate threat for going at least 20/20 in 2016, and will reach the heralded 30/30 Club in the near future. He is slated to bat third in a Houston lineup that will boast Altuve and George Springer (both above .350 OBP in 2015) in front of him, and Carlos Gomez and Evan Gattis behind him. The fantasy production potential is unlimited for the Puerto Rico product. At a position that was seriously lacking before his arrival (along with a few buddies, see below), Carlos Correa is the diamond of 2016 keeper leagues. His ridiculous keeper score of 122.67 is well warranted, and may very well rank first overall when all said and done. Congratulations to fantasy owners, like myself, who took a late round pick to stash him away in 2015. Now it is time to seriously profit from the investment.
2. Francisco Lindor CLE, 22 (Last Round) Score: 79.83
2015 Stats: 50 R, 12 HR, 51 RBI, 12 SB, .313 BA
Like Correa, Francisco Lindor played the role of savior for the shortstop position in 2015 fantasy leagues. The AL ROY runner up, also called up in June, surprised everyone with his production at the plate. Known for his ability with the glove, 10 Defensive Runs Saved, Lindor led all rookies with a career best .313 BA. His .835 OPS and .358 wOBA trailed only Correa among all shortstops (min. 400 PA). The power was definitely not expected, but his 14 HR total in 2015 (Minors included) matches his total from the minor leagues in 2014. The speed on the other hand was fully documented, as he has logged more than 20 SB in each season since A ball in 2012.
Lindor struggled with off speed pitches in his rookie year, especially early on. In his first 26 G, he was hitting .223 with 2 HR, .569 OPS, and a .087 ISO. But after the All Star break it seemed as if he figured it all out. In the 2nd half of the season Lindor crushed the ball, hitting .345 with 10 HR, .930 OPS, and a .199 ISO. He accomplished this by absolutely murdering fastballs. He led all rookies and shortstops with a 23.2 wFB.
The 22 year old still has plenty of improvements to be made in his approach (0.39 BB/K), but there is a ton to like here. He is a switch hitter, which eliminates any nasty splits, and he, too showed that he can handle the high pressure situations. With RISP in 2015, he hit .350 with a .897 OPS. A drop in his BA in 2016 in inevitable, considering his .348 BABIP was a career high and he had not hit over .300 in any level since his 83 A+ G in 2013. But with the modest power, excellent speed, and the position in which he plays, Francisco Lindor makes for a steal in keeper leagues as he leaves the 2016 draft boards around the sixth round.
3. Corey Seager LAD, 21 (Last Round) Score: 71.32
2015 Stats: 17 R, 4 HR, 17 RBI, 2 SB, .337 BA
But wait, there is one more! The younger brother of Seattle Mariner Kyle Seager, Corey is at the front of all 2016 Rookie of the Year speculations. Recalled in September, he briefly flashed his excellence by hitting .337 with a .421 wOBA .986 OPS, and 175 wRC+ in 113 PA. This is obviously too small of a sample size to make a ruckus, but he has been a hitting machine his entire career in the minors. Across three levels in 2014, Seager hit over .350 with 21 HR and a .224 ISO. He has never posted eye-popping HR numbers, but his 2015 combined total of 45 2B and a scary 45.6 Hard% during his MLB stint show that he can still crush a ball.
Despite the brevity, Seager displayed an impressive patience at the plate in 2015. His 12.4 BB% and 0.74 BB/K were both career highs. However, his ability to get the ball off the ground was not so impressive. His 2.00 GB/FB and 26.6 FB% is not exactly what you want to see out of a player who will steal single digit bases, but will certainly increase with more time against big league pitching.
After letting veteran Jimmy Rollins walk in free agency, Corey Seager is expected to begin the season as the Dodgers' starting shortstop. He will bat in the heart of the lineup which ranked eighth in the National League in runs scored. He may not be as exciting as the two previously mentioned studs, as far as any one fantasy category, but Seager will be good enough across the board to rank among the top at the shortstop position in 2016. A keeper selection on Seager is worth the hype alone. Don Mattingly compared Seager to Cal Ripken Jr. in the field, and John Olerud at the plate. Sign me up!
It must run in the family..
4. Xander Bogaerts BOS, 23 (15th Round) Score: 69.82
2015 Stats: 84 R, 7 HR, 81 RBI, 10 SB, .320 BA
Despite a career low in HR, Silver Slugger Xander Bogaerts enjoyed a break out year in 2015. He led all shortstops in R and BA, and ranked second in RBI and OBP (.355). He improved his game from 2014 in many ways, which led to the beautiful BA. This included lowering his K% from 23.2 to 15.4, and increasing his Oppo% from 19.3 to 32.0, which ranked second among all shortstops. But the power looked completely sapped from Bogaerts' bat this season. To put it in perspective, he hit the same amount of HR as speedster Elvis Andrus (career .347 SLG), and his .101 ISO was only two points higher. When your Soft% (21.0) is almost the same your age, you might want to consider hitting the weight room. But considering a 5.3 HR/FB%, 2.05 GB/FB, and only 25.8 FB%, the seven HR total makes sense. Just be happy with the high R, RBI, and BA, and move on.
Bogaerts' career high BA came with a .372 BABIP which was the highest at the position in 2015. This was mostly attributed by a mind boggling 30 IFH. This was only six less than Dee Gordon, who had 16 come from bunts, and is stupid fast. Red Sox fans would like to argue that this is less luck and more hustle, but even the most optimistic doubts a full repeat in 2016.
Despite the lack of power and an expected dip in BA, Xander Bogaerts is an extremely talented player on an extremely talented team. The Red Sox ranked fourth in runs scored in 2015, and will be near the top in 2016. Hitting in the middle of this loaded lineup again produce R and RBI totals that will rank among the best at the lack-luster shortstop position. Given his age, where you drafted him last year, and his fifth-sixth round ADP for 2016, it is easy to see why his 69.82 keeper score ranks among the best at shortstop.
Xander Bogaerts named 2015 American League Silver Slugger https://t.co/Ux1XQc0rxB pic.twitter.com/d7ZSrFbH3n
— OverTheMonster (@OverTheMonster) November 12, 2015
5. Brandon Crawford SF, 29 (Last Round) Score: 34.16
2015 Stats: 65 R, 21 HR, 84 RBI, 6 SB, .256 BA
The Silver Slugger on the other side of the league enjoyed a reciprocal style of production this season. After three and a half seasons in the majors, Brandon Crawford had 26 career HR heading into 2015 and was written off by many as only a defensive shortstop. By the end of the year, he led all shortstops in HR, RBI, and WAR (4.7) while earning his first All-Star game appearance. We consider that a fantasy breakout. His career high .205 ISO was over 60 points higher than his previous best, while his SB, BA, and OPS (.782) were also personal bests. His FB% has always been decent, hitting 34.4% in his career. But an increase in his Hard% to 32.9 led to a 16.2 HR/FB% that doubled his career average and led to 18 more XBH than in 2014.
The increase in the power stroke came at cost for Crawford. He became much more of a free swinger, and his K and Contact numbers suffered. He posted a career low 73.6 Contact% and 0.33 BB/K. He swung at pitches outside the strike zone at a 35.2% rate, and swung and miss a career high 13.6%.
Brandon Crawford is still a defensive wizard, ranking fifth in the league with 20 defensive runs saves and earning a Gold Glove award in 2015. But it seems as if he has figured things out on the offensive side enough to be fantasy relevant in 2016. The arrival of the the young guns greatly lower his appeal, but his new-found power and place in the Giants lineup everyday will keep Crawford in the top 10 shortstops in fantasy leagues. Since he was so far off fantasy owners' radars heading into 2015, he still provides modest value in keeper leagues.
2016 Keeper Value Rankings:
Other Keeper Value Articles:
MLB & Fantasy Baseball Chat Room
[iflychat_embed id="c-12" hide_user_list="yes" hide_popup_chat="no" height="400px"]
