RADIO
Hunting for Treasure
Most of us in the industry say this every year: starting pitching is the easiest asset to add during the season. There are several reasons for this, not least of which is the number of starters who break out from nowhere on an annual basis.
Among last season’s top fantasy arms were several players who'd received little to no attention in drafts, including Corey Kluber, Collin McHugh, Garrett Richards and Jake Arrieta. So which pitchers will emerge further as fantasy assets in 2015? Here are my top five candidates.
Gerrit Cole
Gerrit Cole is drawing the most attention of any player on this list, and it’s easy to see why. After a mildly disappointing start to the season and a trip to the DL with shoulder issues, Cole was a revelation down the stretch. In his final eight starts, he posted a 10.3 K/9 and a 5.45 K/BB, looking like the dominant pitcher many fantasy owners expected. All caveats about small samples aside, Cole has all the tools to be one of the best pitchers in the game.
Drew Smyly
Mostly overlooked last season in a star-studded Tigers rotation, Drew Smyly was sent to Tampa in the David Price deal, where he immediately thrived. Prior to being shut down at the end of 2014, Smyly made seven starts for the Rays, striking out nearly a batter per inning and flashing a shiny 1.70 ERA with 0.76 WHIP. Obviously, Smyly isn’t the second coming of Clayton Kershaw, but he should continue to reap the benefits of a better defense and a friendlier home park. With an ADP of 193, a breakout could leave Smyly owners with some serious surplus value.
Danny Salazar
I know, I know. Danny Salazar burned a lot of you last year. He hurt me, too. But after that horrific start to the year earned him a demotion, Salazar returned and displayed the form that made us all fall in love in the first place. He trimmed his walk rate, got the homers under control, and the Indians defense went from catastrophic to merely bad. The end result was a second half in which his numbers were pretty similar to those he’d posted as a rookie. The difference is that now you can draft him at a bargain rather than paying the exorbitant hype price, as his ADP is as late as 229. Forgiveness is divine (but never pay full price for late pizza).
Carlos Martinez
Carlos Martinez doesn’t have a rotation slot locked down in St. Louis, and his innings may be limited even if he does win a starting job. Still, his talent is undeniable. Despite lacking a defined role, Martinez pitched pretty well as a rookie. He struck out almost a batter per inning, while posting a high ground ball rate and limiting the long ball. The free passes really need to come down, but the primary reason for the gap between his ERA (4.03) and FIP (3.18) was lousy defense behind him. Martinez is going undrafted in a lot of leagues, so be sure to keep an eye on him in the early going.
Marcus Stroman
Marcus Stroman’s current ADP has him as the 43rd starting pitcher off the board, which seems low to me, given the amount of hype surrounding the Toronto righty. That hype is deserved. Despite his small stature, Stroman has impressive velocity, and he boasts a full five-pitch arsenal. Stroman flashed gaudy strikeout totals with excellent control throughout his minor league career, and managed a 2.84 FIP over 130 innings as a rookie. I expect significant improvement on the modest 7.65 K/9 from a year ago. If that happens and he can hold up over a full season, Stroman will be a dark horse Cy Young candidate.
Update: Unfortunately Stroman suffered a torn ACL and will miss the entire 2015 season. He still has a bright MLB and fantasy baseball outlook for the future, but should be ignored in all redraft leagues.
