RADIO
A Work In Progress
As a major contributor to the Boston Red Sox’s championship run in 2013, many fantasy baseball owners targeted Xander Bogaerts in their 2014 drafts. They hoped his toolsy skill set could help him to become a fantasy monster
Expectations were high for the young standout. His minor league statistics had Boston fans wondering if he was the next Nomar Garciaparra! Bogaerts had the potential to develop into a slugging shortstop who could also hit for average. He showed an ability to play third base too. Had the Sox finally found a replacement for Kevin Youkilis?
Unfortunately, Bogaerts endured growing pains as a 21-year-old. After an uneven 2014 season in which he finished with a .240 batting average, 12 HR and 46 RBI, Bogaerts decided to up his offseason training routine. He’s been working out at the EXOS performance institute in Arizona, a training facility utilized by fellow teammate Dustin Pedroia. According to ESPN, Bogaerts has been really pushing himself this winter in an attempt to increase his power and speed. Based on offseason interviews with Bogaerts, his new training regimen has helped both physically and mentally.
Increasing his strength will be an important factor in Bogaerts’ development, especially if he is going to continue his trend of hitting fly balls at an above average rate. Last season, 41% of Bogaerts’ hits were fly balls. However, he converted just 7.1% of those hits into home runs. An average HR/FB rate is 9.5%, and a power hitter should have a double digit rate.
For Bogaerts to progress, he will need to cut down on his strikeouts and become a more patient hitter. Throughout his minor league career, Bogaerts’ walk rate was slightly over 9%. Last season it was 6.6%, well below the 8% league average.
Consistency is another are where improvement is needed. By June 3rd of last season, he was batting a solid .304. Over the next 62 games, he managed a painful .149 average. He did recover and batted .313 with four HR and 16 RBI in September and October. This kind of streaky hitting is not unexpected from a his age. If he wants to remain a starter for a first division club, he will need to become a more dependable offensive force. He'll also need to improve upon his .153 batting average with runners in scoring position.
In Summary
If Bogaerts’ offseason workouts have helped to shape his body and mind in for the upcoming season, then he could become a fantasy force. As I mentioned earlier, Bogaerts should be eligible at both shortstop and third base - two positions lacking in fantasy baseball talent.
The good news: after suffering a major hiccup in his first full season in the majors, he isn’t a hot commodity. Owners are wary of a repeat stinker, and most look at him as a risky play with upside. I’ve seen him drafted anywhere from the 12th to 16th rounds in leagues with 12 or more teams.
If you find yourself without a viable shortstop, middle infielder, third baseman or corner infielder, then Bogaerts could be your guy. Your rivals might be left kicking themselves midseason when they realize the bargain you snagged. Bogaerts’ has already lived through his “sophomore slump” season. With that out of the way, you could look for him to put up a .270 average with 16 home runs and 65 RBI. Do not sleep on Bogaerts.
