RADIO
Jason Kipnis was one of the hottest names in fantasy baseball entering the 2014 season. Consistently ranked among the top three among overall fantasy second basemen, he was expected to contribute for high average, power and speed.
Unfortunately, by the time the 2014 season was over Kipnis had disappointed the Cleveland Indians, himself, and many fantasy baseball owners with his .240 AVG, 6 HR and 22 SB. You’re probably familiar with the song that claims “two out of three ain’t bad,” but what Meatloaf didn’t tell you is that one good thing out of three (the one being Kipnis’ 22 stolen bases) will cause your ADP to drop big time.
Kipnis went from being a late-second-to-early-third-round pick in 2014 fantasy drafts to an average eighth round pick in 12 team leagues in 2015. I love a sale, and since there’s a severe lack of talent at the second base position, Kipnis is a bargain at that price.
What to Expect in 2015
At first glance Kipnis’ peripheral stats would make you shy away from him in fantasy drafts this season. His average fly ball distance dropped by 21 feet in the past year. His batting average had dropped 44 points since 2014. His batting average against lefties sunk from .308 in 2014 to .208 last season. Some believe these are disturbing trends that should make us avoid drafting Kipnis. I see them as a by-product of the lingering effects of his strained right oblique muscle, and I also see them as a buying opportunity.
Oblique strains can take a while to heal, sometimes even longer than the average DL stint. There is also no doubt that they will affect a hitter’s swing. Last season Kipnis had a .748 OPS, just under his career .791 average, and a .394 slugging percentage, before straining his oblique muscle. Upon returning from the injury his OPS and slugging percentage dropped to .615 and .315 respectively. Although he doesn’t think that he tried to come back too soon, Kipnis did acknowledge that he dealt with the lingering effects from the injury all season long. The daily adjustments he had to make on his swing in order to feel comfortable certainly helped cause his offensive statistics to suffer.
The one thing that his oblique injury didn’t hamper was his batting eye. It was as proficient as ever, and his overall contact percentage of 82.7% from last season was actually a bit higher than his overall career percentage. What was missing was his ability to take full swings and drive outside pitches with the same authority that he had been able to in the past.
In Summary
Kipnis was probably never as good as fantasy owners gave him credit for when he was all the rage in 2014. At the same time he is not the overrated has-been that his critics are making him out to be as the 2015 season is set to begin.
Bulking up prior to last season had made Kipnis less flexible and could have caused him to be more susceptible to the type of injury that effectively tore his right oblique muscle off his ribcage. He adopted a new training regimen this offseason that is supposed to help Kipnis become more lean and agile. Hopefully this will help him regain the form that caused him to be considered an elite fantasy second baseman.
As he enters his age 27 season, rest and that new approach should help Kipnis embark on a nice bounce back campaign. Look for a .265 to .270 AVG, 15 to 17 HR and 25 to 30 SB from this All-Star caliber second baseman this season.
