RADIO
2011 - It Was A Very Good Year
When the New York Yankees signed Jacoby Ellsbury as a free agent before the 2014 season they hoped they would be getting the same player who tore up the world of fantasy baseball in 2011. That season Ellsbury batted .321 with 32 HR, 39 SB, 105 RBI and 119 R. Fantasy baseball owners shared the Yankees' hopes and made him a late first round or early second round fantasy baseball draft pick in the following years, 2014 included. Unfortunately, about the only similarities between Ellsbury’s 2014 and 2011 stats were the 39 bases he stole in each of those seasons. Alas, he did not perform like the five-tool monster many fantasy baseball owners had hoped for.
Many, including myself, felt the Bronx Bombers overpaid for Ellsbury. He had a history of missing time due to injuries, but he played in 149 games in 2014 and was never placed on the DL. Since Yankee Stadium has a short right field porch (314’ down the line) numerous fantasy baseball experts counted on the lefty swinging Ellsbury to regain his power stroke. While his 16 bombs was nowhere near his career high from his storied 2011 season, it was the most home runs he's hit in any other single season by a margin of seven.
Ellsbury’s numbers were down in almost every offensive category other than homers. His .271 batting average was 22 points below his career average, and the Yankees lack of usual potent options throughout the lineup meant Ellsbury didn't score nearly as many runs as he's accustomed to. In his defense, hitting into bad luck might partially explain his subpar year at the plate. His BABIP was .298 last season, well off his career mark of .321.
There were some statistical bright spots in Ellsbury’s 2014 peripheral stats. His line drive percentage was up and his ground ball percentage was significantly lower than the previous season. While the former will result in a batter hitting for a higher average, the latter means Ellsbury's fly ball rate was up which frequently leads to more home runs. Ellsbury did make the most out of that elevated fly ball percentage. His HR/FB rate was more than three points higher than the previous season.
In Summary
Although I expect him to rebound and put up numbers closer to his career averages, Ellsbury is, at best, a good table setter who relies on the batters hitting behind him to drive him home. The fact that the Yankees no longer have a high-powered offense might sabotage some of his run production.
The Yankees have too many aging veterans in their everyday lineup. What can you really expect from Alex Rodriguez, Carlos Beltran and Mark Teixeira? A-Rod missed the entire 2014 season, and his steroid-ravaged body will be playing on two artificial hips. Beltran is coming off of elbow surgery and will turn 38 years old this season. And it doesn’t look like the Yanks expect much out of Teixeira since they traded for first baseman Garret Jones this offseason. The only hitter in the Yankee lineup who looks like a lock to hit upwards of 25 homeruns this season is catcher Brian McCann, and that lack of firepower could hurt Ellsbury’s runs scored totals.
Even with these small detractions, Ellsbury has a very high floor and I expect him to bat close to .300 with 15 HR, 80 R, 65 RBI and 45 SB. Those are some pretty nice numbers. Expect him to be drafted in the second or third round in your upcoming fantasy baseball draft, which is basically spot on with the value he'll return.
