XFL Week 3 - Target Risers and Fallers

I'm afraid some folks out there won't like this because they never wanted the XFL to establish itself, but we're already at a point when we can't count the number of games players with the fingers of our hands! That's right, it's been three weeks and 12 games already.

With three weeks already in the rearview mirror and plenty of numbers stored from players showcasing their talent all around the country, it makes sense to crunch some of the data we have at hand to see how things have developed during the games each team has already played.

In this column, I'll be taking a look at some risers and fallers in the receiving stats department, more precisely at how different players fared in terms of targets from Week 3 to the previous ones (averaging the stats from those) to see how different teams are using their assets, and what those players are making of their chances. Let's get to it!

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Week 1-3 Targets: Overall View

There have been 153 receiver-games logged so far through three weeks of play. That means plenty of data is there available to tackle, which we love around this place! All in all, wide receivers and tight ends (remember, we're not covering running backs in this column) have combined for 611  targets (4.0 per player/game) on the season so far, which have gone for a massive total of 4,355 yards (7.1 per target) and a respectable 32 touchdowns (more than 2.5 per game).

Here is how those targets have been shared among players in Week 3 (vertical axis) and Weeks 1 through 2 (vertical axis; calculated), with the color diverging from green (more targets in Week 3) to red (higher number of targets on the prior weeks on average).

click image for full-screen view

While there are some players still showing wild variations (shout-out Jalen Tolliver and Nelson Spruce!), we're also starting to get a much clearer picture of who's who in the XFL when it comes to offensive usage. Cam Phillips and Kahlil Lewis have both maintained high targets during the three weeks played, while others like Jazz Ferguson or even Colby Pearson have stayed at or under 5 targets on average through three weeks.

Now, let's take a look at the real risers and fallers from the prior weeks to Week 3.

Week 1-3 Targets: Risers and Fallers

I have calculated the difference in targets from Week 3 to Weeks 1-2 (positive numbers favor Week 3), and here is how things looked after this last weekend's slate of games was over. I have removed players with no change in targets (zero deltaTGT) and also those with fewer than a two-target difference, either positive or negative.

As I wrote above, the clear winner of the week must be Jalen Tolliver after elevating from an average of just 5.5 targets through the first to weeks to a monster 13 this past Saturday. No one saw even a remotely close positive jump, but Nelson Spruce beat it in the negative side of things with an eight-target decrease from the first couple of weekends to the last one. Ugh.

RISER - Jalen Tolliver, TB (+7.5, from 5.5 targets to 13)

All hail former D-II great pass-catcher Tolliver! The Viper caught eight of his 13 targets playing under the Tampa Bay quarterback-committee this past weekend and that, simply put, was enough to make him a better player in one game than he had been in his other two outings as a member of an XFL roster. Check this out. Tolliver in his first two games: 11 targets, five catches, 53 yards. Tolliver this weekend: 13 targets, eight catches, 104 yards. That sweet improvement can be smelled from miles of distance, and Tampa better keeps it on the rise if they want to break into the winners' column any time soon.

RISER - Austin Duke, NY (+5.5, from 0.5 targets to 6)

New York is 1-2 in the standings but just fell to St. Louis on Sunday while scoring a paltry nine points on the game... Perhaps the best news going New York's way were those under Austin Duke's name. The receiver was rendered nil in the first two weeks of play logging one target in Week 2, but jumping all the way up to six this past weekend and catching four of those six passes. At the end of the day, Duke had racked up 43 yards and most importantly, the Guardians lone touchdown of the week. No wonder Duke finished W3 as the highest-scoring fantasy player of New York thanks to his 14.3 PPR, which weren't even that many when compared to what other players did around the nation.

FALLER - Nelson Spruce, LA (-8, from 12 targets to 4)

Witness the downfall. Mr. Spruce started the season with a bang (15 targets, 11 receptions, 103 yards), followed it with a lower-volume outing but made up for it on the scoring column (nine targets, six receptions, two TDs), but in Week 3 came crashing back to Earth with an efficient yet not-so-great four-target, three-reception, 75-yard game in which his usage dwindled compared to what we have seen from him before. It was a little frustrating, to say the least, as Los Angeles stomped DC to the tune of a final 39-9 win for their first W of the season. Keep an eye on Spruce going forward. This might have just been a bump in the road and the result of DC putting heavy attention on him, but if the trend keeps up Sprue may lose some fantasy value and appeal in future weeks.

FALLER - Deandre Thompkins, DC (-6, from 9 targets to 3)

It's only been two games for Thompkins in DC (he wasn't there for the inaugural match) but things looked quite different this past weekend to how they appeared to be in Week 2. Just 15 days ago Thompkins was on the field catching six of the nine passes he was thrown for 92 yards and a score. Do you know how many he caught this week? One of three targets. Sure, that one went for all of 18 yards, and DC was pretty much inoperative in offense, but that super-efficiency is neither sustainable nor good enough, in the long run, to produce in fantasy (and actual, real) football matchups.

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