RADIO
Welcome to Week 16 of the WR/CB Matchups article. For those who are not familiar, this is a weekly series looking at fantasy football matchups for wide receivers versus the cornerbacks who are projected to cover them. As we approach the fantasy playoffs, matchup quality becomes clearer as we have more data to work with. Keep a look out for defensive injuries as often times late-season banged-up DB rooms can lead to ceiling games from WRs.
During the past three seasons, I have tweaked my process to make the chart more user-friendly and predictive, but NFL teams are moving receivers around more than ever in today's game. It is difficult to pinpoint which CB each WR will be matched up against. The chart is designed to give a 1-vs-1 matchup for each player, but the reality is that most NFL WRs will see a mix of all the DBs they face each week.
As a reminder, the process for assigning points to a specific matchup has to do with how the entire defense defends the player who lines up at one of the three spots (LWR, RWR, slot) the most. For example, in Week 1 last year, Jahan Dotson scored a TD from the LWR spot and the right slot, but all of his points were assigned to Shaquill Griffin because Griffin played primarily LCB and Dotson was the Washington receiver with the most snaps at RWR.
The chart is best used to understand how teams are defending outside versus inside receivers if teams are shadowing, and how much emphasis they put on slowing down the opposing WR1.
WR vs. CB Chart Details
The CB Matchup Chart below is a snapshot of each team's cornerback group as it relates to allowing fantasy points. There are inherent flaws within the data compilation of cornerback play. The first is the fact that quantifying a 1-on-1 matchup in an NFL game is unfair because of zone coverages, mental errors, certain passing concepts, and a million other things. Assigning fantasy points against a cornerback isn't a perfect science.
The purpose of this chart is to give more of a general sense of how defenses are handling opposing WR groups rather than identifying exactly where, when, and how every single encounter happened. Another factor to consider is that players are listed based on where they line up the majority of the time. Most receivers do not line up on one side on every single snap, so they won't be matched up with the same CB on every snap.
The "Rtng" column is the rating of each cornerback based on film study and analytics. The lower a player is graded, the easier the matchup for the WR, so low ratings are green, and high ratings are red. The "PPGA" is the number of fantasy points per game that the player has given up on average this year. Keep in mind that team scheme is a huge factor in points assigned to specific players. A name in blue means the corner could possibly shadow the WR1. A name in red means that the player is dealing with an injury.
Cornerback Ratings and Matchups Chart - Week 16
Click the image for a full-screen view
WR/CB Matchups to Target
Mike Evans has been terrific yet again this season, and this week gets an exploitable matchup against a banged-up Jaguars secondary. Evans was quiet last week, but this could be a bounce-back performance.
Garrett Wilson has had to deal with atrocious QB and OL play all year, but his talent is undeniable. The Jets' 32nd-ranked offense is in the easiest spot possible against the Commanders' 32nd-ranked defense. If Wilson's going to have a big game this season, this week could be it.
D.K. Metcalf made some clutch plays against the Eagles on Monday night, and this week gets a Titans secondary that has been shredded by opposing LWRs all year. Metcalf gets a bump.
Justin Fields is in a smash spot at home against a bad Cardinals defense, and D.J. Moore should be one of the beneficiaries. Moore has an easy matchup.
The Eagles' pass defense has been putrid all year. While the Giants aren't exactly the league's most exciting aerial attack, at least one of their receivers should find success in this matchup. Jalin Hyatt, Darius Slayton, and Wan'Dale Robinson all get matchup boosts.
The Chargers were gashed by the Raiders last week, and this week will have to take on Josh Allen and the Bills. Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis get slight matchup upgrades, while Khalil Shakir has the best spot.
Adam Thielen has a chance to reemerge in a matchup against the Packers this week. Bryce Young has been terrible, but at least he won't have to deal with atrocious weather against Green Bay.
Amon-Ra St. Brown and Cooper Kupp are obviously elite must-starts. They both face decent defenses this week, but both the Saints and Vikings have been below average against slots all year.
WR/CB Matchups to Downgrade
The Steelers are in disarray and there are real questions surrounding Mike Tomlin's future. Still, the pass defense has been better since Joey Porter Jr. started shadowing opposing top receivers. It's a downgrade for Tee Higgins, who will be the outside WR1 with Ja'Marr Chase out.
Michael Pittman Jr. is in concussion protocol, so his status at this moment is unclear. If he is able to go, he'll have to deal with the Falcons' outside corners, who have been stout all year. Keep in mind that Pittman does typically play a handful of slot snaps each week as well.
Sam Howell has regressed and the Washington receivers have been inconsistent fantasy producers as a result. Terry McLaurin and Curtis Samuel did well last week, but this week they'll have to deal with the Jets' stingy pass defense. It's a matchup downgrade.
Noah Brown and the Texans' WR group will be without C.J. Stroud for the second straight week against the Browns. They'll also have to deal with Martin Emerson, Denzel Ward, and Greg Newsome, who comprise one of the best CB trios in the entire NFL.
The Bears' pass defense has been solid in recent weeks, led by Jaylon Johnson. It's not a good matchup for Kyler Murray and his receivers. Marquise Brown and Michael Wilson get downgrades.
Thanks for reading and good luck this week.
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