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Andrew's key fantasy football WR/CB matchups for Week 15 (2023). Wide receiver vs. cornerback sleepers and start em, sit em picks via his free CB ratings chart.
Welcome to Week 15 of the WR/CB Matchups article. For those who are not familiar, this is a weekly series looking at fantasy football matchups for wide receivers versus the cornerbacks who are projected to cover them. As we approach the fantasy playoffs, matchup quality becomes clearer as we have more data to work with. Keep a look out for defensive injuries as often times late-season banged-up DB rooms can lead to ceiling games from WRs.
During the past three seasons, I have tweaked my process to make the chart more user-friendly and predictive, but NFL teams are moving receivers around more than ever in today's game. It is difficult to pinpoint which CB each WR will be matched up against. The chart is designed to give a 1-vs-1 matchup for each player, but the reality is that most NFL WRs will see a mix of all the DBs they face each week.
As a reminder, the process for assigning points to a specific matchup has to do with how the entire defense defends the player who lines up at one of the three spots (LWR, RWR, slot) the most. For example, in Week 1 last year, Jahan Dotson scored a TD from the LWR spot and the right slot, but all of his points were assigned to Shaquill Griffin because Griffin played primarily LCB and Dotson was the Washington receiver with the most snaps at RWR.
The chart is best used to understand how teams are defending outside versus inside receivers if teams are shadowing, and how much emphasis they put on slowing down the opposing WR1.
WR vs. CB Chart Details
The CB Matchup Chart below is a snapshot of each team's cornerback group as it relates to allowing fantasy points. There are inherent flaws within the data compilation of cornerback play. The first is the fact that quantifying a 1-on-1 matchup in an NFL game is unfair because of zone coverages, mental errors, certain passing concepts, and a million other things. Assigning fantasy points against a cornerback isn't a perfect science.
The purpose of this chart is to give more of a general sense of how defenses are handling opposing WR groups rather than identifying exactly where, when, and how every single encounter happened. Another factor to consider is that players are listed based on where they line up the majority of the time. Most receivers do not line up on one side on every single snap, so they won't be matched up with the same CB on every snap.
The "Rtng" column is the rating of each cornerback based on film study and analytics. The lower a player is graded, the easier the matchup for the WR, so low ratings are green, and high ratings are red. The "PPGA" is the number of fantasy points per game that the player has given up on average this year. Keep in mind that team scheme is a huge factor in points assigned to specific players. A name in blue means the corner could possibly shadow the WR1. A name in red means that the player is dealing with an injury.
Cornerback Ratings and Matchups Chart - Week 15
Click the image for a full-screen view
WR/CB Matchups to Target
The Commanders shockingly gave up ZERO passing yards last week, but our favorite burnable secondary is back in action in Week 15. Matthew Stafford and the Rams should have no issue lighting up the sky against Washington's putrid pass defense. Cooper Kupp, Puka Nacua, Tutu Atwell, and Demarcus Robinson (if Atwell is out) all get major matchup boosts.
Brandon Aiyuk remains one of the most underrated complete receivers in the NFL, and this week gets an Arizona secondary that has been an easy matchup for opposing LWRs. The 49ers are rolling, and it could be Aiyuk's turn this week.
The Buccaneers are fresh off giving up a career day to Desmond Ridder and Drake London, and this week take on Jordan Love and the Packers. If Christian Watson can return from injury, he's in a great spot. If not, Romeo Doubs and Jayden Reed get boosts.
Odell Beckham Jr. is rounding into form and this week gets a Jaguars secondary that has been roasted the past few weeks. Keep in mind that Zay Flowers has been getting a lot of snaps outside as well. Both he and OBJ get a bump.
Parker Washington took over for the injured Christian Kirk as the primary slot receiver for Jacksonville last week, scoring a touchdown. This week he gets a Ravens secondary that has been shredded by slot receivers in recent weeks. He's an interesting option in tournaments and deep leagues.
Wan'Dale Robinson was the latest slot receiver to torch the Packers. This week Green Bay will have to deal with Chris Godwin. It's an upgrade for the Bucs' veteran slot.
The Texans were stingy against opposing WR1s to start the year, but have been exploitable in recent weeks. It's a good spot for DeAndre Hopkins.
On the other side of that game, Tennessee has been an easy matchup for opposing WR groups for most of the year. Whoever gets the most targets for Houston is in a good spot. Keep in mind that C.J. Stroud is in concussion protocol, so obviously his WRs get a downgrade if he's out. Robert Woods, Noah Brown, and maybe even John Metchie deserve consideration if Nico Collins can't go.
The Seahawks defense has been playing progressively worse, especially in terms of limiting WR production. Primary RWRs have gashed them the past few weeks. DeVonta Smith gets an upgrade.
On the other side of that game, the Eagles have given up a ton of production to opposing WR groups all year. Based on the data, Jaxon Smith-Njigba and Tyler Lockett have exploitable matchups.
WR/CB Matchups to Downgrade
Although the matchup data shows Pittsburgh as an easy matchup for opposing WR1s, keep in mind that rookie Joey Porter Jr. has been shadowing Pittsburgh's top opposing WR since the early part of the year. Michael Pittman Jr. still has a nice projection due to target share but his matchup is tougher than the chart makes it look.
Jaylen Waddle has been disappointing as the clear second option in Miami's passing attack. This week he'll have to deal with the Jets' elite outside CB duo. Sauce Gardner and D.J. Reed are the best CB duo in the league.
Joe Flacco is a nice story and might even be a better fantasy distributor than Deshaun Watson for Amari Cooper and all Browns pass-catchers. Unfortunately, Cooper has a tough matchup against a Bears defense that has come on in recent weeks.
A.J. Terrell, Jeff Okudah, and the Falcons shut down Mike Evans last week. This week they'll take on a putrid Panthers passing attack. It's not the best get-right spot for Bryce Young's outside receivers.
The Ravens gave up a big game to Matthew Stafford last week, but Baltimore has been more susceptible to tight ends and slots than outside receivers. It's not a great spot for Calvin Ridley or Zay Jones.
Amon-Ra St. Brown fell victim to the Bears' improved pass defense last week, and this week will have to deal with the Broncos, who have been stout against WRs for most of the year.
Justin Fields and D.J. Moore dominated the Lions last week. Unfortunately, Chicago gets one of the toughest defensive matchups in the league in Cleveland this week. The Browns have been an elite pass defense all year. Greg Newsome in particular has been terrific.
Thanks for reading and good luck this week.
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