RADIO
The 2023 NFL season is finally here, and I'm excited to share the completely free fantasy football WR/CB Matchup Chart for the fourth straight year!
During the past three seasons, I have tweaked my process to make the chart more user-friendly and predictive, but NFL teams are moving receivers around more than ever in today's game. It is difficult to pinpoint which CB each WR will be matched up against. The chart is designed to give a 1-vs-1 matchup for each player, but the reality is that most NFL WRs will see a mix of all the DBs they face each week.
Week 1 is always particularly interesting because of player movement and coaching changes. The PPGA (points per game against) column is blank, and the only metric to help describe matchups is my rating of each CB. That rating is derived from film study, player profiles, and advanced statistics.
As a reminder, the process for assigning points to a specific matchup has to do with how the entire defense defends the player who lines up at one of the three spots (LWR, RWR, slot) the most. For example, in Week 1 last year, Jahan Dotson scored a TD from the LWR spot and the right slot, but all of his points were assigned to Shaquill Griffin because Griffin played primarily LCB and Dotson was the Washington receiver with the most snaps at RWR.
The chart is best used to understand how teams are defending outside versus inside receivers if teams are shadowing, and how much emphasis they put on slowing down the opposing WR1.
WR vs. CB Chart Details
The CB Matchup Chart below is a snapshot of each team's cornerback group as it relates to allowing fantasy points. There are inherent flaws within the data compilation of cornerback play. The first is the fact that quantifying a 1-on-1 matchup in an NFL game is unfair because of zone coverages, mental errors, certain passing concepts, and a million other things. Assigning fantasy points against a cornerback isn't a perfect science.
The purpose of this chart is to give more of a general sense of how defenses are handling opposing WR groups rather than identifying exactly where, when, and how every single encounter happened. Another factor to consider is that players are listed based on where they line up the majority of the time. Most receivers do not line up on one side on every single snap, so they won't be matched up with the same CB on every snap.
The "Rtng" column is the rating of each cornerback based on film study and analytics. The lower a player is graded, the easier the matchup for the WR, so low ratings are green, and high ratings are red. The "PPGA" is the number of fantasy points per game that the player has given up on average this year. For Week 1, that column is obviously blank. Keep in mind that team scheme is a huge factor in points assigned to specific players. A name in blue means the corner could possibly shadow the WR1. A name in red means that the player is dealing with an injury.
Cornerback Ratings and Matchups Chart - Week 1
Click the image for a full-screen view
WR/CB Matchups to Target
Terry McLaurin is dealing with an injury, so make sure to check his status before kickoff on Sunday. If he's able to go, he will have one of the easiest WR1 matchups in the league against the probably tanking Cardinals. Both Jahan Dotson and Curtis Samuel also have plus matchups. Sam Howell could have a big day.
Calvin Ridley has an enticing matchup against Colts rookie Dallis Flowers. Expect his debut for the Jaguars to be explosive.
The Dolphins/Chargers total currently sits at 51, which is the second-highest of the week. Mike Williams and Keenan Allen both have great matchups in an exciting game environment.
Baker Mayfield's Buccaneers get a dome game at Minnesota, where the Vikings will trot out two unproven outside CBs. The Bucs have traditionally used Mike Evans and Chris Godwin all around the formation, so both get an upgrade. Evans will likely have the easier overall matchup, as he plays more outside.
The Steelers have talented defensive pieces and may be solid overall, but their weak spot is at CB. If Brock Purdy can keep it rolling, both Brandon Aiyuk and Deebo Samuel have exploitable matchups.
The Rams are paying for their Super Bowl win and project to have a below-average defense this season. Geno Smith and his three stud receivers all get a bump against a Jalen Ramsey-less LA secondary.
With a new coach in Frank Reich, it will be interesting to see how Carolina deploys their WRs in Week 1. Whoever plays the most slot snaps will have an easy matchup. I project that to be Terrace Marshall Jr. Bryce Young is one of my favorite under-the-radar fantasy picks this year.
The Packers have arguably the best cover corner in the league in Jaire Alexander, but they may struggle against slots. That's good news for Justin Fields' primary slot Darnell Mooney.
WR/CB Matchups to Downgrade
Nico Collins had an encouraging preseason and looks like C.J. Stroud's WR1 in Houston. Unfortunately, he'll see a lot of Marlon Humphrey in Week 1. He gets a downgrade.
I will be paying close attention to the snaps and alignment stats from the Giants WRs in Week 1. Whoever gets the most outside snaps will have tough matchups against a stout Cowboys duo in Trevon Diggs and Stephon Gilmore. I project that to be Darius Slayton and Isaiah Hodgins but keep an eye out for Jalin Hyatt.
Davante Adams will have a brand new QB, and there's no doubt he'll still earn a ton of targets. The issue in Week 1 is that he'll be dealing with Patrick Surtain II, who is one of the best CBs in the game.
D.J. Moore looks locked and loaded as the Bears top option, but Jaire Alexander represents a tough matchup in Week 1.
Josh Allen is obviously elite and there's no reason to ever consider benching Stefon Diggs. However, the Jets will likely be a headache for opposing receivers. Diggs, Gabe Davis, and Deonte Harty get downgrades versus one of the best defenses in the NFL.
The Patriots have a questionable WR group to begin with, and this week will have to deal with the Eagles' solid secondary. DeVante Parker and Kendrick Bourne aren't great bets.
All eyes will be on Aaron Rodgers on Monday Night. It will be interesting to see how the Bills defend the Jets WR group, with Garrett Wilson as the clear best player. If Tre'Davious White shadows Wilson, Allen Lazard will have an easier matchup. If they play sides, Lazard might not do much at all.
Thanks for reading all season and good luck this week.
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