Wide Receiver Target Variances - Week 3 Report

September 27, 2018

Phil Clark examines the most important changes in target share, red zone targets, and snap count for wide receivers ahead of Week 4 of the 2018 NFL season to help fantasy football owners make informed lineup decisions.

Your wide receivers remain essential components toward accomplishing your unwavering goal of securing a league championship. As the season unfolds, it is crucial for you to utilize the tools that you have available, in order to maintain an extensive level of knowledge regarding the number of opportunities that are being provided to your wide receivers - both in terms of their snap counts and how often they are being targeted by their quarterbacks.

Each week, this article will examine these specific categories, along with any other noteworthy changes in usage that signal an increase or regression in opportunity. This will bolster your efforts to determine which wide receivers should be in your lineups, and which are worthy of remaining on your rosters. Pro Football Reference and NFL Savant were used to obtain all target and red zone target totals, while snap count information was assembled with information from Football Outsiders.

We now are in possession of data from three weeks of game action that will provide the basis for comparison of snap counts and targets for each receiver. This will include the most likely candidates to experience a rise or decline in those numbers during the upcoming weeks. Here is a breakdown of the most compelling changes in usage and opportunity from Week 3.

Overall Targets

There are no shocking names among the top 20 receivers in targets, and there are a minimal number of changes in terms of which players maintained their presence on the list. Adam Thielen and Jarvis Landry now reside among the top five, after collecting the two largest target totals for the week (Thielen 19, Landry 15). Golden Tate is now sixth overall despite a drop of five targets from Week 2, which was also six below his combined average from Weeks 1-2 (14). Both Nelson Agholor and Demaryius Thomas received the smallest Week 3 totals among the overall leaders (5),  but managed to maintain their slots among the top 20 as the result of their opportunities in Weeks 1-2.

There are several receivers who currently reside outside the top 20 that are still worth mentioning because they should commandeer a sufficient number of targets to remain highly relevant throughout the year. Tyler Boyd has already collected 21 targets, after only receiving 32 during an injury-shortened 2017 regular season (sprained MCL). He was ascending toward the WR2/WR3 threshold even before AJ Green's health issue emerged and should provide owners with steady production throughout the year.

Devin Funchess is easily Cam Newton's second-best option behind Christian McCaffrey, which should compel Newton to supply him with a desirable number of targets on a consistent basis. He is currently tied with Boyd, Kupp, and Keelan Cole (21), and will deliver respectable production even after Greg Olsen returns. Will Fuller has already acquired 20 targets despite missing Houston's season opener, and his Week 3 total (11) tied him for the third highest weekly increase. He should ascend into a slot among the overall leaders if he can avoid injury.

Greatest Variances  

This week's variances will focus on the differential between Weeks 2-3, and the largest rise in targets occurred with Landry. He benefited significantly from Baker Mayfield's insertion into Cleveland’s lineup, and owners should be ecstatic regarding the numbers that he could assemble while thriving as the primary receiving weapon in a more potent offense.

Teammate Antonio Callaway was one of two receivers who garnered the second highest rise (6), as he collected 10 targets after receiving a total of five during the Browns’ first two contests. Callaway has become a must-add in all leagues this week and joins Landry in providing a promising scenario for owners moving forward.

Adam Thielen also garnered six additional targets, amid an absolutely catastrophic performance by Minnesota. Randall Cobb, Jordy Nelson, Chris Godwin, and Emmanuel Sanders all experienced a rise of at least four targets, as Godwin was one of seven receivers who attained a double-digit increase for the week.

The largest regression occurred with Pittsburgh's dynamic receiving tandem of Antonio Brown and JuJu Smith-Schuster, who both were subjected to a drop of eight targets. This was largely a byproduct of Ben Roethlisberger generating 41 passing attempts compared to the 60 that he launched in Week 2.

Allen Robinson had the third largest decline (-7). However, owners should be reassured that he easily remains Mitchell Trubisky’s preferred receiving weapon, and should reward anyone who cements him into their starting lineups (more on that later). Demaryius Thomas was only targeted five times in Week 3, which represented a decline of six. He did have a 39-yard reception eviscerated by a penalty and still leads the Broncos in overall targets (26). But Sanders has been Denver’s most critical receiving weapon and currently has captured three more receptions (19 vs. 16) and 125 more yards than Thomas.

Corey Davis began the year with 13 targets, which placed him seventh overall after Week 1. But his total underwent a notable decline for the second consecutive week - he has now plunged to 25th after receiving 11 in Weeks 2-3 combined. His regression is a byproduct of Tennessee's substandard passing attack, fueled by significant shortcomings at the quarterback position. The Titans have managed just 162 yards per game through the air, which amazingly is just the league's fourth-lowest average (here's looking at you Arizona-132 YPG). If you are a Davis owner, the unfortunate news is that his surrounding environment makes a more favorable outlook unlikely in the immediate future.

Red Zone Targets 

Smith-Schuster currently leads the all wide receivers with 10 red zone targets for the season, followed by Michael Thomas (9), Kupp (7), Davante Adams (7), and four players that are tied with six. That grouping includes Godwin, who garnered four targets in Week 3, and Marvin Jones, who now leads Lion receivers in that category.

Kenny Golladay is second on the team with three, although he did pace Detroit in Week 3 (two red zone targets). If you are a Tate owner, and are now wondering where he resides, both of his red zone targets for the season occurred in Week 1. However, his overall target total was discussed previously (37), and even though Golladay and Jones will remain heavily involved, Tate will capture a mammoth number of opportunities.

Even though Quincy Enunwa's season-long total remained stagnant (4), owners should still remain optimistic regarding his production in the weeks ahead. What he has accomplished so far is legitimate, and he will remain productive while Sam Darnold is under center. Conversely, if you believe that you have overlooked Robby Anderson’s name on the red zone target chart, that is not the case. Anderson was not included because he has yet to receive a target near the end zone during the Jets' first three games. Anderson’s outlook is currently beyond dismal, which will be discussed in greater detail later in this variance report.

John Brown’s red zone targets have declined each week (2, 1, 0) - but teammate Michael Crabtree has only garnered one all season, and none since Week 1. Brown remains an excellent WR3 option who currently is 11^th in YPC (18.5), and 14th with four receptions of 20+.

Greatest Variances

Even though Robinson was among this week’s leaders in overall target regression for Week 3, his red zone opportunities rose by three, which tied him with Landry, Godwin, and Woods. Landry entered Week 3 with just one red zone target, but promptly received a massive boost in opportunities with Mayfield directing Cleveland’s offense. He should remain the primary beneficiary of Mayfield’s presence in every major receiving category moving forward, while frequently rewarding anyone who retains him on their rosters.

Smith-Schuster's league-high decline was not surprising, considering the unsustainable number of chances that he obtained in Week 2 (8). However, some of the conjecture concerning the drop in Julio Jones' red zone opportunities was unwarranted. After receiving three targets in Week 1, Jones has failed to receive a target near the end zone in two consecutive games. Meanwhile, Calvin Ridley has now received three in the past two games, as his weekly totals have steadily increased (0, 1, 2). I have observed several people on Twitter attempting to position this development as a red flag regarding Jones, which is completely unnecessary.

While his -3 for the week tied him with Demaryius Thomas for the greatest regression among high-profile receivers, Jones retains inclusion among the unquestioned elite. Ridley's ascending importance in Atlanta's offense is also genuine, and he should consistently perform as the Falcons' WR2 while retaining the potential to function as a high-end WR3 for his owners.

Snap Counts  

While the leadership in multiple categories by Brown and Smith-Schuster remains prominent, the Rams, Lions, and Packers have successfully managed to keep three different receivers actively involved and consistently productive. Kupp, Cooks, and Woods are all performing in at least 97% of the Rams offensive snaps, which has enabled the trio to capture all 75 targets that have been designated to their teams’ wide receiver position.

Marvin Jones and Golladay are both eclipsing 91% of Detroit's offensive snaps, while Tate has played an even 80%. While there is comparative separation among Green Bay's top three receivers, Geronimo Allison (75%) keeps him relatively active within the Packers' weekly game scripts, while Adams (98%) and Cobb (91%) remain intensely involved.

The landscape is less favorable in Dallas, as four different Cowboys have played between 45% and 65% of the offensive snaps (Cole Beasley, Allen Hurns, Michael Gallup, Deonte Thompson) - and that does not even include Tavon Austin(27%) or Terrance Williams (22%). This is clearly a situation to avoid for anyone who prefers to maintain their current level of sanity. 

Greatest Variances

Seven different receivers, among this week's top 30, experienced a double-digit variance between Weeks 2-3 including Pittsburgh's stellar combination of Brown and Smith-Schuster. However, their decline occurred in the actual snap count, while the percentage of usage was virtually unchanged. While you would expect Brown and Smith-Schuster to continue running routes at their normal frequency, the same principle applies to nearly every receiver with a variance this week.

But while many players with a variance did not actually endure a change in their level of opportunity, Washington receivers Josh Doctson and Paul Richardson clearly did. Entering Week 3, Doctson was second among all receivers with 141 total snaps. However, after averaging 70.5 snaps in Weeks 1-2, Doctson's total plummeted to just 47 in Week 3, as he also did not register a catch with his paltry three targets. Richardson incurred a similar decline, dropping from an average of 64.5 plays in Weeks 1-2 to just 45 in Week 3. Alex Smith only launched 20 passes against Green Bay's man coverage in Week 3, even though he did connect on a 46-yard touchdown to Richardson.

Outside the top 30, Tajae Sharpe's count total has plunged from 84% during Tennessee' season opener to just 39%, as his involvement in the Titan's troubled passing attack has steadily diminished. That is contrasted by Cameron Meredith's surge in usage during Week 3, as he played on 34 snaps (43%) after not registering any during New Orleans first two contests.

Five Things I Noticed

1. We are watching Antonio Callaway’s importance within Cleveland’s offense rise steadily on a weekly basis, as the rookie’s targets (1, 4, 10), and snap counts (15, 50, 69) have expanded to appealing levels. He should join Landry in benefiting from the transition to Mayfield, and has the talent to attain high-quality production any given week.

2. Only 16 wide receivers eclipsed the 2017 target total of Robby Anderson, whose 114 targets were tied with Cooks, and exceeded the numbers for Hilton, Marvin Jones, and Tyreek Hill. But anyone who drafted Anderson in anticipation of him retaining the Jets’ WR1 role, now find themselves with a receiver who has been targeted just 10 times. This trails teammates Enunwa (29), and Terrelle Pryor (14), while even Jermaine Kearse captured six targets during his Week 3 return. This drops Anderson down Darnold’s order of preference even further, and it is unlikely that his opportunities will increase anytime soon.

3. Allen Robinson owners should be just as comfortable with owning Chicago's WR1 as Bear signal caller Mitchell Trubisky is with locating him repeatedly. Robinson has captured a 28.2% team target share, and currently leads the Bears in receptions (17), and yardage (194). Nothing in Trubisky's ongoing learning curve indicates that he is going to begin looking elsewhere when he launches his passes.

4. I am among the Larry Fitzgerald owners who could not overlook his three consecutive 100+ reception/1,000+ yard seasons from 2015-2017 during the draft process. But those numbers were accrued without Mike McCoy and Sam Bradford being involved in the process. Now, he should remain attached to your bench until we observe tangible evidence that any semblance of positive change can emerge in Arizona, and simply naming Josh Rosen as the Cardinal signal caller is not enough. The Cardinals are dead last in total offense (190.3 YPG), passing offense (132 YPG) and scoring (6.7 PPG), and Fitzgerald owners should not expect the obvious shortcomings of this unit to dramatically improve anytime soon.

5. If you drafted any of Washington’s wide receivers, and have been disheartened by their production, you could transfer a healthy portion of your frustration toward Smith. The Redskin signal caller has only targeted his wide receivers 40 times (43%), which is the fewest among all 32 teams. For perspective, 16 teams have targeted at least 60 passes to the position, with both Roethlisberger and Matthew Stafford exceeding 90 throws (98, 92). It is concerning that even though Green Bay had surrendered the third highest number of receptions to opposing wide receivers prior to Week 3 (34), Smith only made five connections to his wideouts against the Packers.

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