RADIO
Welcome back to another week of NFL DFS GPP Stacks! This is where I talk about the slate and give three stacks you should consider for your GPP lineups!
I generally make 3-5 lineups, because it is hard to nail every stack. I use a different stack for each GPP lineup and hope one of them pops to the top of the standings! If I win a GPP with one lineup and do not cash in the other six, I will still have a very nice day and win a good chunk of cash!
Before just diving into the picks for this week, some reminders about guidelines I use for stacks:
I want games with high point-scoring totals and close point spreads. The scoring part is obvious (more scoring = more fantasy points) but the game being close makes a bring-back player viable and keeps the team that is up playing with urgency throughout the game.
I generally want to fade a stack combination that is projected to be the most popular in the slate. This means I may choose to stack up that team different from the crowd, or I may do an outright fade. With that said, onto the picks!
Slate Context
This is something I think is important to look at when considering stacks for your lineups. For the main Sunday slate, Cowboys vs. Chiefs have the highest total by far - 56 points. The next highest total after is Bengals vs. Raiders (50 points), Colts vs. Bills (49.5 points), and then there is a drop-off with point totals.
(1) Kansas City Chiefs
Patrick Mahomes is the fourth most expensive quarterback on the slate. I like his chances of finishing ahead of the Top 4 this week, considering Kansas City has the highest implied total on the slate at 29.25 points. Kansas City seems to have turned a corner after last week. Dallas is No. 21 against the pass on the season and Kansas City's pass play percentage of 64.64% is the fourth highest in the NFL. Usually what drives some of the popularity of Kansas City is pricing. Tyreek Hill is the second most expensive wide receiver on the slate and Travis Kelce is the most expensive tight end on the slate. In order to stack Kansas City. Finding GPP viable value plays at both running back spots could be the challenge. One would likely have to punt at DST, Flex (likely a punt tight end), and then find two sub $5k wide receivers. In short, a lot has to go right and people might avoid it. I still am going to take a shot and have a Kansas City stack but I realize that a lot will have to go right for this to pay off.
(2) Buffalo Bills
Buffalo was in this slot last week and an Allen-Diggs pairing was part of the Milly Maker winning lineup. This week, I will rank them here again and roster this pairing, and hope for a repeat! What I like about this spot is Indianapolis has a reputation for having a good defense. The game has a 49.5 point total and Buffalo has the second-highest implied total on the slate at 28.5 points. Indianapolis is No. 20 against the pass. Josh Allen is the most expensive quarterback on the slate, and Diggs is the fourth most expensive wide receiver on the slate. When you pair Allen and Diggs, you have about $4800 per roster spot left to use.
(3) Las Vegas Raiders
This game total is 50 points, the second-highest on the slate, but it is not drawing the roster percentage that other stacks are likely to have. The issue is that each team is 9th and 10th on the slate in implied points. But here's the thing: this game is projected to be close (1 point spread), Las Vegas is a home dog (I love stacking home dogs), and Cincinnati has the No. 24 pass defense in the NFL. Stacking Carr-Renfrow-Waller gives you nearly $6k per roster spot afterward and can build some high upside lineups. It's not often that the second-highest total gets overlooked. I am going to take a shot!
Final Thoughts
All three of these stacks should be more popular than they will likely come in at. The Chiefs and Bills have high upside, the Raiders are a good "sneaky play that shouldn't be sneaky" this week. Dallas is probably the offense with the third-highest upside and deserves a mention here going against Kansas City's No. 23 pass defense. The issue is that Dallas has Ezekiel Elliott and Kansas City has the No. 18 run defense. There is a universe in that Dallas scores a lot of points through Ezekiel Elliott and Tony Pollard. There are not a lot of universes that the Raiders score a lot of points but the passing game does not do as well. If playing more than three lineups, definitely include Dallas as one of your teams.
Thanks for reading, and I wish you the best of luck with your Week 11 DFS Stacks!
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