December 30, 2016

Ben Ruppert's Week 17 fantasy football matchups analysis (part 2) for the 2016 NFL season. Starts and sits for fantasy football lineups based on matchups.

What's up RotoBallers. Below you will find part two of our Week 17 NFL matchups & fantasy football start/sit analysis for the 2016 NFL football season. Ben Ruppert breaks down the second half of the Week 17 matchups to help you prepare your lineups to win this week. Be sure to also check out part one of this week's matchups analysis by Pierre Camus (@pfunk00).

Each week of the NFL season, we will be breaking down individual matchups and providing you with some fantasy football advice and lineup recommendations based on matchups that we love, matchups that we hate, and some high-risk/high-reward players, as well. It’s essential to analyze the weekly NFL match-ups to find lineup sleepers and gems, while also avoiding those players who may turn out to be busts.

Editor's Note: New users that sign up on FantasyAces, make a $20 deposit, and enter any game will receive BOTH our full season NFL and NBA Premium Passes for free, a $119.99 value. Just email [email protected] with your new FantasyAces username - and boom, that's it! We will email you with your Premium Passes.

Week 16 Matchup Analysis Recap

Greatest Hits: Jarvis Landry (WR, MIA), Jonathan Stewart (RB, CAR), Cameron Meredith (WR, CHI)

Even with the added time, Jarvis Landry still didn't put together much of anything against the Bills. In the overtime victory, Landry caught three passes for 29 yards. Outside of a 56-yard touchdown by DeVante Parker (with the help of some terrible efforts at 'tackling' by the Bills), the Dolphins could get little going through the air. Jay Ajayi stole the show once again with his second 200-yard game against the Bills this season. Stewart finished the game with a nice 4.5 YPC, but with Carolina falling behind early, Stewart was phased out of the game, as expected. He gained 50 yards on 11 carries, and caught one pass for two yards in the loss. A touchdown could have saved his day, but the Panthers never got close enough to give him an opportunity. Meredith dominated once again, with his second straight 100-yard game. He caught nine passes for 135 yards and a TD against the Redskins, while playing catchup for most of the game. The Barkley-Meredith connection is real, and it's led to some great performances from Meredith.

Greatest Misses: Ty Montgomery (RB/WR, GB), DeMarco Murray (RB, TEN), Chris Ivory (RB, JAX)

TyMont was unable to follow up his amazing Week 15 performance against the Vikings, gaining only 23 yards on nine carries while catching four passes for 17 yards. He missed some key blocks which may have led to his decreased role. Regardless, he is clearly being underutilized in this offense given the flashes of great play we've seen from him. Murray and Ivory finished with nearly identical stats. I loved Murray Week 16, but he gained only 42 yards on 14 carries; both well below what we expect from him. I was down on Ivory this week, but he led the team in rushes, gaining 45 yards on 14 carries with a touchdown. A big difference was Ivory gained 69 yards on four receptions, compared to only two for 18 for Murray.

Bills @ Jets - Sunday 1/1 @ 1:00 PM ET

Matchups We Love

Bilal Powell (RB, NYJ)

Over the past three weeks, Powell has done an excellent job filling in for the dinged up Matt Forte. He has run for 4.8 YPC over that span, with 18 receptions on 20 total targets. He was still able to rush for 4.0 YPC last week against New England, even though the offense was basically non-existent with Ryan Fitzpatrick running the show. This week against the Bills should be an easier matchup; they just allowed Jay Ajayi to rush for 200 yards for the second time this season. They have allowed the fifth most rushing yards and the second most rushing touchdowns in the league. Powell should have no troubles dealing damage to a defense with some major holes.

Charles Clay (TE, BUF)

Well, it took him 14 weeks to do it, but Charles Clay finally found the end zone. After going touchdown-less for 13 weeks Clay has now scored in three straight games, including two last week against Miami. Over the past three weeks he has led the team with 23 targets, turning those into 18 receptions for 209 yards and four touchdowns. E.J. Manuel, not Tyrod Taylor, will start for the Bills on Sunday due to business reasons (certain clauses in Taylor’s contract). The last time Manuel got significant work was last season, when he started two games while Taylor was injured. Clay caught 9-of-13 targets for 62 yards in the first game and 3-of-5 targets for 26 yards in the second game. Manuel is much taller than Taylor, so he may have more ease seeing and targeting Clay over the middle. With the Jets having given up the sixth most fantasy points to the TE position, the stars are aligning once again for Clay to have a productive game.

Matchups We Hate

Brandon Marshall (WR, NYJ)

The disappointing season for Marshall will continue on Sunday against Buffalo. The entire offense looked inept behind Ryan Fitzpatrick, who is slated to start this game with Bryce Petty done for the season. Last week Fitz completed only 8-of-22 passes, leaving Marshall with another lackluster performance. The Bills have given up the seventh fewest receiving yards this season, with big help from Stephon Gilmore and Ronald Darby. After scuffling to open the year, the duo has improved as the season rolled on. Marshall will undoubtedly be covered by one of these two all game long, which will limit his chances more than his quarterback will. Outside of Powell this week, I would avoid everyone in the Jets offense.

Notable Players

LeSean McCoy (RB, BUF)

Shady has been absolutely dominant this season, helping Buffalo to once again lead the league in rushing. He is fourth overall in rushing yards and rushing touchdowns, and has the highest YPC in the league at 5.5. No matter the game flow, the Bills get him the ball any way they can. The Jets allow the fifth lowest YPC in the league at 3.8 yards, but allow just over 100 yards per game on the ground. Shady will get all the touches he needs to be successful, but some of his performance on Sunday hinges on Manuel’s ability to keep the defense honest by making good throws. If he comes out rusty and inaccurate, the Jets will stack the box making things tough on McCoy.

Sammy Watkins (WR, BUF)

The Bills second best playmaker will look to finish 2016 strong after missing the majority of the season with a foot injury. Watkins has alternated up and down games since his return. Although, last week was his best performance yet. He finished the day catching 7-of-10 targets for 154 yards and a touchdown. He is second on the team in targets behind Clay over the past three weeks with 20. Who knows how much and how often Manuel will look for Watkins, but if he’s smart he will head down that road early and often. He only appeared in one of the two games Manuel started last season. In that game he caught 4-of-5 targets for 48 yards and a touchdown. Watkins is still a boom or bust player, but his WR1 upside makes him extremely attractive heading into the weekend.

Chiefs @ Chargers - Sunday 1/1 @ 4:25 PM ET

Matchups We Love

Travis Kelce (TE, KC)

Move over Gronk, Travis Kelce is the new dominating force at the tight end position. Over the past six weeks, he has failed to reach 100 yards receiving only once. In all of those 100-yard games he has at least eight targets, averaging seven receptions on 10 targets for 109 yards per game over that span. Though he has only scored one touchdown over that span, he has still been one of, if not the, most valuable fantasy tight ends in the league this year. Look for him to continue his dominance against a Chargers defense he took advantage of in Week 1 when these two teams last met. Recently, Cameron Brate and Greg Olsen both had solid games against San Diego. As one of the most heavily utilized tight ends in the league, expect more of the same from Kelce.

Matchups We Hate

Antonio Gates (TE, SD)

If there’s one area the Chiefs shine on defense, it’s their ability to limit opposing tight ends. Last season they gave up the least amount of fantasy points to the position. This year they have given up the fourth fewest. They have only allowed one tight end to eclipse 45 yards all season long (Delanie Walker, Week 15), and have only allowed two total touchdowns to opposing tight ends. Gates is still in pursuit of Tony Gonzalez’s touchdown record, so he may see a few extra looks in the red zone for that reason alone. However, this will be an extremely difficult matchup for Gates, making him largely touchdown-dependent.

Notable Players

Melvin Gordon (RB, SD)

Gordon practiced on Wednesday for the first time since exiting the game during Week 14, but his status for this week is still up in the air. With the Bolts out of a playoff spot it seems smart to rest the running, but with Gordon only three yards from 1,000 on the season he is pushing hard to play. Even if he does play, he would be less than 100% and would face a difficult test against a tough Kansas City defense. Ronnie Hillman would also be in the mix, with the two likely splitting carries. Keep an eye on his status heading into the game, but the smart coach would keep him on the bench given the risk outweighs the potential reward of playing him.

Tyreek Hill (WR, KC)

Since Jeremy Maclin’s return, Hill has seen his targets take a dip down. Over the past three weeks, he is third on the team in targets behind Kelce and Maclin. He has also been held without a catch each of the past two weeks while seeing eight targets over that span. Hill has been able to stay fantasy relevant over those two weeks by rushing the ball; in Week 15 he had a 68-yard touchdown run, and in Week 16 he ran six times for 95 yards and a touchdown. Hill is a lot like Ty Montgomery with Green Bay; an elite level athlete who when given the ball has succeeded, but coaching or game flow has kept their touches down despite their success. With his targets declining a bit and rushing attempts limited, Hill makes for a risky play against the Chargers.

Spencer Ware (RB, KC)

Ware missed some time during last week’s game against the Broncos after sustaining a rib injury. Before he was taken out, he totaled 62 yards on 13 carries, adding 20 yards on two receptions. Ware practiced on Wednesday, and is expected to play against the Chargers. He will likely cede some carries to Charcandrick West, but should receive the majority of the work. Ware hasn’t rushed for more than 70 yards since Week 7, and only has one rushing touchdown since then. Ware will be on the RB2 radar in this matchup.

Raiders @ Broncos - Sunday 1/1 @ 4:25 PM ET

Matchups We Love

Latavius Murray (RB, OAK)

Murray has been a touchdown scoring machine this season, ranking fifth in rushing touchdowns with 12 despite receiving significantly less carries than the players above him. Even with his nose for the end zone, he has lost carries the past two weeks to DeAndre Washington and Jalen Richard. Last week he received the most touches of the three, but was the least effective gaining 3.0 yards per touch, compared to 8.8 for Richard and 9.0 for Washington. With Matt McGloin now at quarterback for Oakland, expect a run-heavy game plan; Denver has an excellent secondary, but their run defense has taken a step back this season. When these two teams met in Week 9, Murray ran for 114 yards and a touchdown on 20 carries. Expected to get the majority of the touches again, Murray is a good play this week even with other backs getting some work.

Demaryius Thomas (WR, DEN)

Since the team’s Week 11 bye, DT has out-targeted Emmanuel Sanders 53-to-42. Last week the team could get nothing going against a tough Kansas City defense. Although, before that Thomas posted two straight games of over 90 yards receiving. He does not have a touchdown since the bye, but is still being targeted in the red zone; he is sixth in the league in red zone targets with 22, two more than Sanders. Last week was tough for the offense, but there is no safer bet to have a good game than Thomas, given his targets and skill set. Oakland has allowed the ninth most receiving yards, and allows the highest YPR in the league this season (13.1). The Broncos are out of the playoff race, but can still spoil the Raiders season a bit by beating them in Denver.

Matchups We Hate

Amari Cooper/Michael Crabtree (WR, OAK)

As if the Broncos secondary isn’t a tough enough matchup as it is, the Raiders will be facing them without their stud QB Derek Carr. Instead, Matt McGloin will suit up for this game and for the Raiders playoff run due to a broken leg Carr sustained against the Colts last week. The Raiders have confidence in McGloin, but playing your first game of the season in Denver in Week 17 isn’t the easiest place to start. Last time these two teams met Carr threw for only 184 yards, with Cooper and Crabtree combining for eight receptions and 83 yards. Carr has been playing at a MVP level this season, and couldn’t break 200 yards against this team. McGloin will be in for a tough time in a tuneup before the playoffs. I would be wary starting either of these Raider wideouts with Carr out.

Notable Players

Devontae Booker (RB, DEN)

Booker has been extremely disappointing as the Broncos starting running back, but last week he was used a bit differently than normal. He hadn’t received more than four targets since the bye week, but last week he received 10 targets, turning those into six receptions for 44 yards. He still struggled to run the ball (five rushes for 27 yards), but his involvement in the passing game over Justin Forsett was nice to see. If he can get 15 touches again against the Raiders, he will have a chance to find success. He was completely bottled up last time these two teams met, and hadn’t done much of anything until last week. Booker is only playable if you’re grasping at straws, which you’re likely not doing if you’re in the finals.

Seahawks @ 49ers - Sunday 1/1 @ 4:25 PM ET

Matchups We Love

Thomas Rawls (RB, SEA)

Rawls was forced to leave Week 16 early with a shoulder injury, but is expected to play this week after returning to practice on Wednesday. Seattle still has plenty to play for while fighting for a first round bye, so expect all of their starters to be on the field. Rawls only amassed eight yards on eight carries in the first half against the Cardinals, but the entire offense struggled out of the gate before scoring 28 points after halftime. The 49ers run defense has been atrocious this season; they have allowed the most rushing yards, rushing touchdowns, and runs of over 20 and 40 yards in the league. Given a full workload, Rawls should have no trouble gaining big chunks of yards as long as his shoulder holds up. He is an RB2 with RB1 upside on Sunday.

Doug Baldwin (WR, SEA)

The loss of Tyler Lockett last week only helped Baldwin, who was already seeing the most targets on the team. After Lockett left the game Baldwin was targeted 14 times, giving him 19 total for the game. He turned those targets into a career-high 171 yards and a touchdown, doing all of his damage from the slot while Patrick Peterson manned the outside. The 49ers haven’t given up too many passing yards as a team, because once teams get up on them (which is usually the case) they just run the football. However, they have given up the third highest YPC and the third most plays of at least 20 yards through the air. If any Seahawk wide receiver is going to explode against this beatable defense, it’ll be Baldwin given his huge target share.

Jimmy Graham (TE, SEA)

Though he has been a bit quiet over the past few weeks, Graham should be a solid play against the 49ers this week. The absence of Lockett should help him see a slight bump in targets, and he is always a threat to score in the red zone; he leads the team with 17 targets inside the 20 yard line. Last time he faced this 49ers defense back in Week 3, he caught six passes for 100 yards and a touchdown. San Francisco hasn’t faced many tight ends that are used like Graham is in the Seattle offense, so even though their numbers against opposing tight ends look good, the quality of the competition hasn’t been there. Graham is locked in as a top-tier tight end this week.

Matchups We Hate

Shaun Draughn (RB, SF)

Carlos Hyde is done for the season after tearing his MCL, leaving Shaun Draughn and DuJuan Harris to take on the Seattle defense. Earlier in the season when Hyde missed time it was Harris who got the majority of the carries, however last week it was Draughn who got 16 touches once Hyde left the game. He ran 10 times for only 17 yards, adding six receptions for 48 yards in the win. Regardless of who gets the most carries, it will be tough finding success against the Seahawks front seven; they allow the lowest YPC in the league and have yet to allow a receiving TD to a RB this season. Draughn may be an option to consider in a deeper PPR league, but outside of that I wouldn’t expect much from either back against this talented defense fighting for a first-round bye.

Notable Players

Rod Streater (WR, SF)

The 49ers are going to need to pass plenty to keep up with Seattle’s offense. Slot receiver Jeremy Kerley has been the favorite short target of Colin Kaepernick since he took the job over, but with Torrey Smith out Rod Streater has emerged as a go-to option also. Over the past two weeks, he has 10 targets and scored two touchdowns. Last week he set a season high in catches and yards (six receptions for 63 yards). Receivers have been able to get the best of the Seattle secondary of late; J.J. Nelson was able to explode for 132 yards and a touchdown last week, and before that Davante Adams and Jordy Nelson both had strong performances. Kerley makes for a risky option given how they shut down Arizona’s slot man last week, Larry Fitzgerald. Streater is a decent deep league option if you need a real dice roll.

Saints @ Falcons - Sunday 1/1 @ 4:25 PM ET

Matchups We Love

Julio Jones (WR, ATL)

Jones is still working his way back from a toe injury, but when he was on the field last week he looked like his usual superstar self. He finished the game catching 4-of-7 passes for 60 yards, and most importantly escaped the game unscathed. He played in only 62% of the team’s offensive snaps, his lowest total of the season. Expect that snap count to rise this week, but don’t be surprised if he still sits out a bit as the Falcons gear up for the playoffs. Even at less than 100%, Jones is an elite fantasy WR1 given his immense upside. It was a shootout last time these two divisional foes met; I would expect nothing less in Atlanta on Sunday.

Devonta Freeman (RB, ATL)

After a huge three touchdown game in Week 15, Freeman had a quieter game last week. He ran 13 times for 53 yards, and got a huge boost in PPR leagues catching eight passes for 35 yards. Last time Freeman faced the Saints he got going early and never stopped, rushing 14 times for 152 yards and catching all five of his targets for 55 yards and a touchdown. It could have been an even bigger game, had Tevin Coleman not scored three rushing touchdowns of his own. Even in a split timeshare, Freeman is poised to have a big game once again on Sunday. The Saints are second in the league in receiving yards allowed to running backs this season, and over the past two weeks have allowed Jacquizz Rodgers and David Johnson to rush for 4.3 YPC. Freeman has RB1 written all over him, and Coleman is an RB2 with upside in this matchup.

Michael Thomas (WR, NO)

Thomas has had a phenomenal rookie season, given his preseason expectations. He is only 19 yards short of 1,000 on the season, and his eight touchdowns put him in a tie for the franchise lead in receiving touchdowns by a rookie. Last time he faced the Falcons he had a good game, catching 7-of-11 targets for 71 yards and a score. Thomas and Brandon Coleman were able to find open space while the defense keyed in on Brandin Cooks. Atlanta has given up the sixth most receiving yards, and the fourth most receiving touchdowns this season. If Atlanta works extra to stop Cooks again, expect Thomas to take advantage. He is a WR2 with upside in this potential shootout.

Matchups We Hate

I don’t hate anyone in this matchup; this has the potential to be another shootout. You’re going to want the offensive studs on either side of the ball in your lineups.

Notable Players

Brandin Cooks (WR, NO)

Cooks was shut down last time these two teams met; he was held to two receptions on eight targets for only 13 yards in the shootout. If the defense keys in on him again, we could see a similar result. However, he has been on an absolute roll of late. Ever since his zero reception game in Week 12, Cooks has seen an average of nine targets per game with no less than five receptions. Against Arizona he exploded for 186 yards and two touchdowns on seven receptions, with those touchdowns coming from 45 and 65 yards. Cooks is a threat to score every time he touches the ball, so even though Atlanta may have the recipe to stop him he has the skillset and opportunities to strike at any moment. Cooks is a boom-or-bust WR2 this week.

Mark Ingram (RB, NO)

Ingram is only 60 yards away from 1,000 for the season, and the team is well aware of that fact. They will look to help push Ingram to that milestone against the Falcons, who have allowed 4.4 YPC this season. Over the past two weeks, Ingram has gotten the majority of the carries over Tim Hightower, averaging 4.8 YPC with two touchdowns. Atlanta doesn’t allow many rushing yards due to teams having to throw on them to catch up, but they have allowed the most receiving yards to opposing running backs this season. Even if Ingram can’t get the ball rolling on the ground, he will be able to produce yards in the receiving game.

Cardinals @ Rams - Sunday 1/1 @ 4:25 PM ET

Matchups We Love

J.J. Nelson (WR, ARI)

Nelson has done an excellent job since replacing Michael Floyd in the offense. Over the past two weeks he has seen a team-leading 18 targets, and has scored a touchdown in each game. He was able to burn the Seattle defense last week, turning three receptions into 131 yards and a score. Nelson has a higher floor than he has shown us this season, given his increase in targets with his expanded role. Look for him to continue the good tidings against a Rams defense that has given up the sixth most fantasy points to the wide receiver position, and the fourth most receiving touchdowns on the season. With Carson Palmer playing some of the best football he has all season, Nelson is a high-ceiling, high-floor WR2 option.

Matchups We Hate

Todd Gurley (RB, LA)

This matchup isn’t good for Todd Gurley, and isn’t good for anyone in the Rams offense with top wide receiver Kenny Britt unlikely to play. Arizona has given up the sixth fewest receiving yards, and gives up the second lowest YPC in the league (3.6). Over his last five starts, Jared Goff has turned the ball over nine times and has been sacked 18 times. Over the past two weeks against divisional opponents, Gurley has averaged 2.8 YPC, putting his average at 3.2 for the season. Arizona dominated Seattle’s offensive line last week, getting to Russell Wilson six times in the win. Unless Goff can throw for four touchdowns like Wilson did, it’s going to be a long day for the Rams offense. Outside of Britt, there hasn’t been much to write home about concerning the offense. The Cardinals defense makes for a top-notch Week 17 play.

Notable Players

Larry Fitzgerald (WR, ARI)

Like last season, Fitzgerald’s production has taken a dip as the season rolls on. Despite seeing 19 red zone targets this season, he hasn’t found the end zone since Week 5. He has only eclipsed 65 receiving yards once in the past six weeks, despite leading the team in targets over that span. However, he only needs eight receptions to break his own record for the most receptions in a single-season in Cardinals history, so Palmer might be willing to feed him the ball more to help him break the record. With the Cardinals out of the playoffs, it wouldn’t be surprising to see them attempt to help him break the record. Fitz is a much more appealing PPR option, but keep expectations in check.

David Johnson (RB, ARI)

Speaking of records, David Johnson also has a few things he has his sights set on. Not only does he need 159 receiving yards to reach 1,000 on the season, he can become the first player in NFL history to total 100 yards from scrimmage in all 16 games. Arizona has been playing hard despite already being eliminated from playoff contention, so expect a full workload from Johnson this week. Especially if Arizona gets a lead early, this could be a huge week for him based on volume alone. The Rams have only allowed a stingy 3.9 YPC this season, but last time these teams met Johnson gained 83 yards on 17 carries.

Giants @ Redskins - Sunday 1/1 @ 4:25 PM ET

Matchups We Love

Sterling Shepard (WR, NYG)

Though it has not been publicly stated by the team, it is possible some of the starters sit with the Giants locked in to the five seed in the playoff picture. We could see less of O’Dell Beckham, and more of Shepard and Victor Cruz. Shepard doesn’t normally get a ton of volume behind Beckham, but has gotten seven targets per game on average over the past four weeks. More impressively, he has scored a touchdown in six of the last eight games, despite Beckham’s presence. He would still have to potentially deal with Josh Norman, but over the past few weeks Cameron Meredith, Ted Ginn, and Jordan Matthews all put up respectable fantasy numbers against the Redskins. He will be a WR3 in this game with upside, as long as he doesn’t also get potentially sat with the starters.

DeSean Jackson (WR, WSH)

This game has a totally different meaning for the Redskins. A win gets the Skins into the playoff picture for the second consecutive season, while a loss sends them to the couch for the postseason. They’ll be going all out this week, and the best weapon they have going right now is DeSean Jackson. Over the past five weeks, Jackson has hit the 100-yard mark four times. He is averaging about seven targets per game over that span, turning those into an average four receptions for 101 yards. He has three touchdowns over the past six weeks. If top cornerback Janoris Jenkins sits for any length of time, it could mean big things for Jackson. In a must win game, Kirk Cousins won’t hold back on the Giants behalf. Fire up Jackson this week, who’s been performing like a fantasy WR1 of late.

Matchups We Hate

Robert Kelley (RB, WAS)

Kelley rushed for the most yards since Week 11 last week against the Bears. He gained 76 yards on 19 carries, and caught 2-of-3 targets for six yards. He now has as many targets in the past three weeks as he had all season prior to that point, as his involvement in the passing game continues to grow. His outlook would change heavily if he gets to play against backups, but the Giants have done well against opposing running backs this season. They have allowed the seventh fewest rushing yards, and the second lowest YPC in the league. In a normal situation this matchup would call more for Chris Thompson than Kelley, but keep an eye on the status of the Giants players heading into Sunday.

Notable Players

O’Dell Beckham Jr. (WR, NYG)

Beckham would be an obvious start if it was clear how much time he would be playing, but it’s possible we only get a half from Beckham this week. If nothing is said up until game time and Beckham starts then you have to start him. Last time he faced the Redskins, he caught 7-of-11 passes for 121 yards. He has at least 100 yards receiving or a touchdown in seven of the past eight weeks. A half of Beckham is worth more than an entire game for many players.

Pierre Garcon (WR, WSH)

Over the past four weeks, no one has more targets on the team than Pierre Garcon. Slightly less impressive than Beckham, he has at least 78 yards or a touchdown in six of his last seven weeks. He has been the most consistent member of the offense this season, playing in all 15 games while having less than four receptions only twice (and not since Week 7). His ceiling may be limited with Jackson and Jamison Crowder around, but he is a lock to get you consistent points week to week. Garcon is one of the safest flex plays out there this week.

Packers @ Lions - Sunday 1/1 @ 8:30 PM ET

Matchups We Love

Jordy Nelson (WR, GB)

As Aaron Rodgers’ favorite target, Jordy Nelson is a locked in WR1 every week he touches the field. After a slow start to the year, Nelson hit the midpoint of the season and took off. Since Week 8 Nelson has received less than nine targets in a game only twice, and has over 90 receiving yards or a touchdown in every single game. He leads the league in red zone targets by a large margin with 34, thanks to the lack of a power run game for the majority of the season. With the winner of this game taking the division, expect nothing to be held back by the Packers offense. Last time Nelson faced this defense, he torched them for 101 yards and two touchdowns. As always, Nelson is a locked in WR1.

Zach Zenner (RB, DET)

Theo Riddick is expected to miss his fourth straight game while dealing with a wrist injury. This means the Zach Zenner train will keep barreling down the tracks. After playing behind Dwayne Washington in Week 15, Zenner stole the show last week in Dallas rushing 12 times for 67 yards and two touchdowns. He could have had an even bigger day, but the Lions got down after halftime and were forced to abandon the run. He did have two receptions for 25 yards in the game, so he still can provide some value in the passing game. Zenner will likely draw the start against the Packers, who have allowed Thomas Rawls, Jordan Howard, and Jerick McKinnon to rush for 5.2 YPC over the past three weeks.

Golden Tate (WR, DET)

Tate is another receiver who picked his game up after a slow start. After his 165-yard effort in Week 6, he has taken off as the top option in the offense over Marvin Jones. Over the past four weeks, he is averaging seven receptions per game, and has eclipsed 120 yards twice. He only has one touchdown in his last six games, but this matchup is oozing with potential for Tate to score. Green Bay has given up the fourth most receiving yards this season, and the second most receiving touchdowns behind only Cleveland. Adam Thielen just ripped this defense to shreds last week, gaining 202 yards with two touchdowns on 12 receptions. Tate is a WR1 heading into the final weeks of the season.

Matchups We Hate

Eric Ebron (TE, DET)

After four straight weeks of middling production, Ebron was brought back to life against the Cowboys last week. He posted zero catches on Thanksgiving day, then turned in three straight four-reception, 30-yard performances. Last week he caught 8-of-12 targets for 93 yards, all season highs. Outside of a rushing touchdown, he still has not found the end zone since Week 1 which hurts his ceiling in this matchup. The Packers have allowed a ton of receiving yards to opposing WR, but lately they have done well against the tight end position. Last week they held Kyle Rudolph to only 53 yards, and before that held Jimmy Graham to only 16. Anquan Boldin’s hurt finger may get him an extra red zone look, but this matchup is tougher than it seems for Ebron.

Notable Players

Davante Adams (WR, GB)

Adams is only 34 yards away from his first 1,000 yard season as the Packers look to take the division on Sunday. He has seen his production vary in recent weeks with the explosion of Jordy Nelson, but he has had some huge games of his own. He would have had a big game in Week 15, but a couple of drops led to him being held to only 25 yards. Last week he looked better, catching 4-of-7 passes for 44 yards and a touchdown. Unfortunately, he dropped yet another easy touchdown pass, which hopefully stops and doesn’t become a trend for the young receiver. Adams’ inconsistency keeps him off the WR1 radar, but he is still a strong option in a must win game for Green Bay.