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Expert Week 15 Thursday Night Football bets, anytime TD scorer, and player prop predictions. Free TNF betting picks, anytime TD scorer, and player props for Week 15.
Thursday Night Football heads to Tampa Bay, Fla., this week for an NFC South matchup between the 7-6 Tampa Bay Buccaneers and the 4-9 Atlanta Falcons. Tampa Bay's season has unraveled with four losses in the last five games, leaving it tied with the Carolina Panthers atop the division after once holding firm control. Atlanta's skid has been even longer, losing seven of the last eight games since what looked like a statement win over the Buffalo Bills in Week 6.
While coming off a bad home loss to the Saints, the Bucs are still in the driver's seat to win the division with a 70% chance, according to The Athletic. Baker Mayfield and the offense are struggling, but the Falcons offense hasn't been much better since Kirk Cousins took over as the starter in Week 12.
Can the Falcons pull off the road upset, or will the Buccaneers avoid their third straight loss at home? Let's get to the picks!
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Thursday Night Football Odds and Spread
Atlanta Falcons (+4.5) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-235 ML)
Over/Under (44.5)
These teams met all the way back in Week 1, with the Bucs narrowly pulling out a 23-20 win in Atlanta. Both teams will look much different this time around as injuries have taken a toll on each roster. The Falcons will be without their Week 1 starting quarterback with Michael Penix Jr. (knee) out for the season, and their No. 1 wide receiver, Drake London (knee), has also been ruled out.
Mayfield hasn't been the same since originally getting injured in Week 7. Multiple other key Bucs starters are listed on this week's injury report, with tight end Cade Otton (knee) considered doubtful to play, and star left tackle Tristan Wirfs (oblique) listed as questionable. However, it does appear that wide receivers Mike Evans (collarbone) and Jalen McMillan (neck) are trending toward playing on Thursday night.
Here’s the final injury report for Bucs and Falcons. Evans and McMillan listed as questionable. pic.twitter.com/guBo2ceyMD
— Greg Auman (@gregauman) December 10, 2025
This game will likely come down to the wire. In Mayfield's five meetings with the Falcons since joining Tampa Bay in 2023, every matchup has been a one-score game. Three ended walk-off wins, while the other two were decided in the final minute, including Younghoe Koo's missed game-tying kick in Week 1 this season.
2025 Betting Trends:
- Against the Spread: TB 5-8, ATL 5-7-1
- As Home Team ATS: TB 1-5
- As Away Team ATS: ATL 3-3
- Over Game Total: TB 7-6, ATL 6-6-1
Thursday Night Football Game Picks
We're unlikely to see a repeat of last year's Thursday night matchup between these two teams. They combined for 66 points as the Falcons pulled out an overtime thriller on a walk-off 45-yard touchdown to KhaDarel Hodge. It marked the second-highest scoring total for a Thursday night game last season.
Cousins exploded for a career-high 509 passing yards with four touchdowns in the game. It was also one of London's best games as a pro, recording a career-high 12 catches for 154 yards and a touchdown on 13 targets. Needless to say, his absence is a massive loss for the Falcons offense.
With London out, the offense has leaned heavily on superstar running back Bijan Robinson in the ground game and tight end Kyle Pitts Sr. through the air. Robinson has piled up 66 touches over the past three games, producing 394 yards and a touchdown. Pitts has added 15 receptions for 197 yards on 23 targets in that same time. No other Falcons player has reached double-digit receptions, and the next closest target earner sits at just 12.
As mentioned previously, Mayfield has struggled mightily since injuring his shoulder in Week 7 and playing through it in the following weeks. He ranks 35th out of 37 QBs in EPA/play and is tied for last in CPOE. The only quarterbacks with a worse EPA/play during that time are Geno Smith and J.J. McCarthy. In the first six weeks, he ranked seventh in EPA/play and 18th in CPOE out of 34 QBs.
Mayfield has completed just four of his last 24 pass attempts (16.7%) thrown at least 10 yards downfield. For context, the next closest player with at least 15 such pass attempts is Tyrod Taylor at 33.3%.
This game could be a major slog with both quarterbacks struggling to move the ball and the Bucs struggling at home. Cousins also owns just a 1-8 record against the spread in his last nine games. Something has to give here. Both defenses are solid units that should have the upper hand in a short week, so we will take the under and the points with the Falcons. The Bucs should win, but like all the other previous meetings, it should be a tight one.
The Picks: Atlanta Falcons +4.5 (-110), Under 44.5 (-110)
Thursday Night Football Player Props
All odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook
Kyle Pitts Sr. To Record 60+ Receiving Yards (-114)
Pitts has been a bright spot for the Falcons in an otherwise disappointing season. He's shown the ability to level up without London in the lineup, averaging six receptions for 64 yards on eight targets in four games without the Falcons' WR1.
The 25-year-old has racked up 82 and 90 receiving yards in the past two games as Cousins' top target. Plus, he nearly cleared this line in Week 1 versus Tampa Bay with 59 yards, and his two highest-yardage totals last season came against Tampa Bay, posting 91 and 88 yards.
Kyle Pitts 49-yard TOUCHDOWN. #NationalTightEndsDay
📺: #ATLvsTB on FOX
📱: https://t.co/waVpO909ge pic.twitter.com/GTk6Nm51LJ— NFL (@NFL) October 27, 2024
Chris Godwin Jr. Over 39.5 Receiving Yards (-114)
Godwin has looked healthy since returning from injury three weeks ago. In his first game back versus the Rams, the 29-year-old's snap share was limited to just 35.7% as he was getting ramped back up.
In two games since, he's played 67.4% of the snaps with 78 yards against the Cardinals, then 55 last week against the Saints. The returns of Evans and McMillan muddy things a bit, but I've been encouraged by how he's looked the last two weeks. He looks explosive after the catch and has a catch of 20+ yards in each of the last two games.
Bijan Robinson Over 16.5 Rushing Attempts (-108)
We noted earlier that Robinson has been getting fed touches with Cousins as the starter. He's totaled at least 20 carries in three of the past four games, and in a game that's expected to be close, the superstar back shouldn't be game-scripted out of handling a normal amount of carries.
His average rushing attempts per game this season is 16.5, and he's cleared that mark in four of the past five games. The Falcons should lean on their best player again on a short week of preparation.
Thursday Night Football Anytime Touchdown Bets
Bucky Irving Anytime Touchdown (+125)
Bucky Irving is back, and that's a great thing for football. The second-year running back returned in Week 13 against the Arizona Cardinals after missing seven games due to a shoulder and foot injury. He rushed for a score in his first game back, and then caught a screen pass and took it to the house for a 24-yard touchdown last week against the Saints.
Whether it's through the air or on the ground, Irving should have a good shot at scoring again on Thursday night against the Falcons. They've allowed four receiving touchdowns to running backs, which is tied for the second most, with one of those being Irving back in Week 1.
Bucky Irving weaves in for the 24-yard TD!
NOvsTB on CBS/Paramount+https://t.co/HkKw7uXVnt pic.twitter.com/vBANcLPeOU
— NFL (@NFL) December 7, 2025
More Picks and Analysis
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