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Our Sleeper.com NFL DFS prop picks - over/under props for the Sunday slate of games in Week 15. Dan's favorite prop bets on Sleeper.com.
Welcome to our Sleeper NFL DFS prop picks for the Week 15 Sunday Main Slate.
Last week was our first taking over this column, and our prop picks for this slate started on a positive note, finishing 4-3. We’ll look to improve on that record with this week’s 10-game Sunday slate.
Sleeper offers some of the best and easiest-to-win NFL DFS games in the industry. Sleeper DFS works just like regular player prop betting -- there are no large-field tournaments to get lost in. You're not playing against other people; you're just playing against the projections. Here are a few of our favorite prop picks for the Sunday main slate on Sleeper DFS.
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Week 15 Sleeper DFS Prop Picks: Sunday Main Slate
Zach Wilson OVER 178.5 Passing Yards
Wilson has been quietly filling the stat sheet in recent weeks, including his best game of the season in last week’s 30-6 win over the Texans in which he passed for 301 yards and two touchdowns.
He faces off with Miami this week, who have given up the 10th-most fantasy points to quarterbacks this season. The Dolphins are giving up an average of 227 passing yards per game, and have given up 179 yards or more to quarterbacks, including Will Levis, Tim Boyle, Aidan O'Connell, and Mac Jones.
In a trailing game script against a quick-strike Miami offense, Wilson should have plenty of chances to build on last week’s success and hit his passing over in Week 15.
Justin Watson OVER 15.5 Receiving Yards
The Chiefs' receiver woes have been well-documented this season and this past week in particular after Kadarius Toney’s unfortunate offsides on his team’s final drive last week in a loss to the Bills. With public sentiment being predominantly down on Kansas City’s receiving corps, this week is a good buy-low opportunity.
Watson is enjoying the best season of his six-year career in 2023, already reaching career highs in targets, receptions, and yards despite having four games still to play.
Watson and the Chiefs have the third-best receiving matchup this week, according to PFF’s strength of schedule metric in a matchup with the Patriots. He has gone over his 15.5 receiving prop in seven of 12 games and has a good chance to do so again. He is projected to match up most often with CB J.C. Jackson, PFF’s lowest-graded defensive back this season.
PFF shows a 73.2% likelihood of this prop hitting. Rotoballer's Proptimizer tool agrees with the over, giving it a 27.9% edge with a Sharp App projected line of 27.8 receiving yards.
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Brandon Aiyuk OVER 4.5 Receptions
Aiyuk has been San Francisco’s most dependable receiver this season and is a good bet to cover his receptions prop this week. The 25-year-old has hit five or more catches in five of his last seven contests (71%).
The Niners have the fourth-best receiving matchup of the week, according to PFF, as they take on the Cardinals on Sunday. Aiyuk is in the best position to take advantage given significant mismatches on the perimeter. The WR has a 92.0 PFF offensive grade this season compared to 41.3 and 52.6 defensive grades for Arizona’s outside corners, Marco Wilson and Kei'Trel Clark.
The Cardinals play zone on 83.1% of snaps, which bodes well for Aiyuk, who ranks inside the top five in fantasy points per route run and commands a 21.2% target rate against zone coverage.
Other Recommendations:
- Jordan Love OVER 21.5 completions
- Rico Dowdle OVER 15.5 rushing yards
- Kyren Williams OVER 0.5 rushing touchdown
- Greg Zuerlein OVER 5.5 kicking points
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