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Welcome to our Sleeper NFL DFS prop picks for Week 15 Thursday Night Football: Chargers vs. Raiders.
We swept the board with last week’s TNF picks, bringing us to 5-1 since taking over this column in Week 13. Let’s start Week 15 off right with three more top props.
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NFL Sleeper DFS Props - Over/Under Picks for Thursday Night Football
Aidan O’Connell OVER 203.5 Passing Yards
O’Connell has been serviceable for the Raiders this year, passing for 1,365 yards, four touchdowns, and seven interceptions in seven games (six starts). The rookie has a good opportunity to go over his passing yardage prop on Thursday in his sixth straight start. He has passed for over 203 yards in four of six starts thus far, including 238 passing yards in a matchup with the Chargers earlier this year, his first career start.
The Chargers allow the sixth most fantasy points to quarterbacks this year, including giving up an average of 285 passing yards per game to opposing quarterbacks. The list of quarterbacks who have thrown for more than 230 yards against them this year includes Ryan Tannehill, Tyson Bagent, and Zach Wilson.
With RB Josh Jacobs out for this matchup, expect the Raiders to lean more heavily on the passing game in this matchup. Consider O’Connell to go over 0.5 passing touchdowns as well.
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Austin Ekeler UNDER 12.5 Rushing Attempts
Ekeler hasn’t quite lived up to his first-round ADP in fantasy this year, coming into Week 15 as the RB21 in PPR scoring. His production has waned on the ground in particular, failing to reach 70 rushing yards in any game since Week 2. Ekeler has only surpassed 10 carries once over his last four games, a 6-0 win over the Patriots.
With QB Justin Herbert out for the rest of the season with a finger injury, the Chargers will be starting QB Easton Stick for the first time in his career. This will allow the Raiders to stack the box as much as possible and force the Chargers to put the ball in Stick’s hands. The fifth-year pro will be making his first start after looking shaky coming in last week for Herbert, finishing 13 of 24 for 179 passing yards (54% completion rate).
Rotoballer's Proptimizer tool is in line with this pick, giving it a whopping 41.8% edge with a Sharp App projected line of 6.6 attempts.
Daniel Carlson OVER 1.5 Field Goals
Carlson enters Week 15 on a hot streak, going 13-for-14 on field goals and 10-for-10 on extra points over his last six games. The elder Carlson has hit two or more field goals in five of his last eight contests and is primed to do so again this week.
The Raiders are one of the least efficient red zone offenses in the league, ranking 28th in the NFL in red zone touchdown scoring rate (45.7%), this includes a dead last 20% rate over their last three games.
The Chargers are top-ten in opposing kicking points per game, averaging 6.5 kicking points against. The Los Angeles defense ranks 27th in the league in DVOA, meaning the Raiders should be able to move the ball down the field to give Carlson more opportunity for his prop to hit.
Be sure to check out the rest of our prop betting coverage later this week. Good luck with your picks!
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