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Our Sleeper.com NFL DFS prop picks - over/under props for the early slate of games in Week 14. Dan's favorite prop bets on Sleeper.com.
Welcome to our Sleeper NFL DFS prop picks for the Week 14 Sunday Main Slate.
Our Sleeper DFS prop picks across all slates this season have gone 69-55 so far. We’ll look to build on a hot start to the week with a 3-0 sweep of TNF picks.
Sleeper offers some of the best and easiest-to-win NFL DFS games in the industry. Sleeper DFS works just like regular player prop betting - there are no large-field tournaments to get lost in. You're not playing against other people; you're just playing against the projections. Here are a few of our favorite prop picks for the Sunday Main Slate on Sleeper DFS.
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Week 14 Sleeper DFS Prop Picks: Sunday Main Slate
Clyde Edwards-Helaire UNDER 2.5 Receptions
Edwards-Helaire will get his first start since Week 1 for the Chiefs on Sunday as Isiah Pacheco sits out with a shoulder injury.
The former first-round pick has not exceeded two receptions all year and has only done this four times dating back to the beginning of last season. His receptions prop is over-estimated this week with Pacheco’s injury. With Jerick McKinnon a full participant in practice on Friday, he will likely handle third down and obvious passing down snaps, limiting Edwards-Helaire’s passing usage. PFF projects a 73.4% likelihood of this prop going under.
Rotoballer's Proptimizer tool agrees with this pick, giving it a 25% edge with a Sharp App projected line of 1.5 catches. Expect CEH to lead the way on the ground with McKinnon taking the lion share of passing opportunities out of the backfield this week.
Matthew Stafford OVER 195.5 Passing Yards
Stafford enters Week 14 averaging 251.6 passing yards per game, good enough for 12th in the NFL. Despite a tougher matchup against the number-one ranked defense according to DVOA, Stafford is in a great position to exceed his passing yard prop on Sunday.
The former first-overall pick has surpassed 200 passing yards in 9-of-11 games (82%). The Ravens have given up more than this mark to opposing quarterbacks in 8-of-12 (67%), including 200+ yard performances from Joshua Dobbs, Kenny Pickett, and Gardner Minshew. PFF projects an 83% likelihood of this prop going over.
The Rams offense has been firing on all cylinders in recent weeks, scoring 73 total points over the last two weeks with Stafford passing for 508 yards and seven touchdowns over that span. The Rams are 7.5-point underdogs on Sunday. Look for Stafford to come out firing in a passing game script this week.
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Brock Purdy OVER 8.5 Rushing Yards
Purdy has been one of the top stories in the NFL of late for the 9-3 San Francisco 49ers. He enters Week 14 as the odds-on favorite for NFL MVP while leading the league in passer rating (116.1), touchdown rate (6.9%), and yards per attempt (9.6) among other categories.
It is his rushing prop that is showing value this week, however. Purdy is averaging 10.9 rushing yards per game this year. He has hit 9 or more rushing yards in five of his last seven games (71%). He matches up with the Seahawks in Week 14 who have given up 9 or more QB rushing yards eight times this year (67%).
Other Recommendations:
- Russell Wilson OVER 5.5 rushing attempts
- Lamar Jackson OVER 16.5 completions
- Alvin Kamara OVER 4.5 receptions
- Greg Joseph OVER 6.5 kicking points
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