RADIO
Learn from the Chicago Bears. All year I’ve been saying that we should be picking defenses based on their ability to get pressure and force turnovers. Yardage stinginess doesn’t really matter. Targeting a bad offense only somewhat matters. For all of those reasons, I initially had the Bears as my 12th ranked defense this week. They have a below-average pressure rate and don’t consistently force turnovers. They have a reputation for being a strong defensive unit, but, for fantasy purposes, they’ve been average at best.
But I saw what Houston’s defense did against Detroit on Thanksgiving. Then D’Andre Swift was ruled out, and Kelly Golladay was ruled out, and I vaulted the Bears into my top-10. I started them over the Bills. Which also prevented me from grabbing San Francisco off of waivers to pair with the Bills for my playoff run. And then the Bears laid an egg against that bad Detroit offense.
I mentioned this because we all make managerial mistakes. We all over-correct and outsmart ourselves sometimes. But, if possible, we have to trust the trends and data that have built up over the first 75% of the regular season. It may not go our way, but I’d rather lose by trusting what got me there than feel like I got too cute and cost myself.
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Picking The Right Defenses
When choosing a defense, you want to be looking for defenses that get consistent pressure and takeaways. Sacks and turnovers are more valuable for fantasy defense than preventing yardage and even, to a certain extent, preventing points. If a defense allows a stingy yards per play number, that's great and I'll cite some of those numbers below - but they better also be able to get into the backfield or force turnovers, or else it won't really matter in the long run.
Essentially, we need to move away from points against as being the most important factor in choosing a fantasy defense. NFL offenses have scored 9,452 points or 24.7 points per game so far this season, which, despite coming back to earth a little bit over the past couple of weeks, is the most through the first 13 weeks of any season in the Super Bowl era.
With offenses putting up video game numbers, it means that we can't continue to judge a defense solely by the number of points they allow or the number of yards they give up. Those numbers will naturally be higher than we're used to. Instead, we need to look for which offensive lines are truly weak points and which defenses will either be blitz-heavy or get consistent pressure with their pass rush. These are all incredibly important pieces of information in determining which defenses to play in any given week.
We can also identify the offenses that we want to attack based on current performance. Injuries can always change this, but, for right now, defenses going up against the Cowboys, Jets, Broncos, Eagles, Lions, Bengals, Giants, and Washington Football team have scored considerably more points on average than defenses facing other offenses. As I mentioned above, attacking these teams doesn't always work, and you don't want to elevate a bad defense too far just because they get one of those teams; however, it is a key factor to keep in mind when making your decision.
Starting the right defense every week can be a difference-maker, so remember to check back here during the week as I will make updates once we get more information on some of these injuries and also get a better sense of the weather for the game.
Week 14 Defenses To Start & Stream: Tiers & Rankings
These rankings are from before the Monday Night Football game and will be adjusted throughout the week to take into account weather and injuries.
Below are my Week 14 defense tiers and rankings, or which defenses to stream, start and target off the waiver wire for Week 14 of the NFL and fantasy football season. Our weekly tiered defense rankings are a guide to making waiver wire pickups to improve your lineups, and to decide which defenses to start, sit, target, avoid or stream for Week 14. I've broken out our defense rankings into tiers with analysis on each matchup. Some of these Week 14 defenses have good matchups and are not widely-owned, representing fantasy scoring opportunities if they are available on your league's waiver wire for a Week 14 pickup or add.
Returning for this year: Confidence Ratings (out of 15) - Since every league's DST scoring is different, projections don't always make a ton of sense. The confidence rating, which Bill Dubiel started last year, is a guideline for how much more I like one team over another instead of a straight point projection. A zero means "do not start," then the confidence rises from there. I take a lot of factors into account: opponent injuries, home-field advantage, weather (which will be updated during the week), etc. We still have only one game of in-season data to work with, so this week's rankings weigh schedule and personnel heavier than they will down the line.
Typically the top three tiers will be DSTs you should target, with Tier 4 being options in deep leagues and Tier 5 being desperation plays or good defenses in horrendous matchups.
Tier 1 Defenses
| Rank | Tier | DST | Week 14 Opponent | Confidence Rating |
| 1 | 1 | New Orleans Saints Defense | @ PHI | 13.1 |
| 2 | 1 | Los Angeles Rams Defense | vs. NE | 12.9 |
| 3 | 1 | Seattle Seahawks Defense | vs. NYJ | 12.6 |
| 4 | 1 | Pittsburgh Steelers Defense | @ BUF | 11.1 |
The Saints are the best fantasy defense in the second half of the NFL season. They've averaged 12.2 points per game since Week 8 and have rocketed up to 4th in the league in sacks and 8th in pressure rate. Now they will take on an Eagles team that is dead last in sacks allowed with 53 in 12 games. Even if they start Jalen Hurts, that doesn't mean they will avoid sacks. Hurst's improvisation in the pocket is not necessarily a fit for a porous offensive line. Added to that the rookie's desire to take chances, which could lead to mistakes and turnovers, and I don't think you'll find a better defense than the Saints this weekend.
The Rams have been the 4th best defense since Week 8. They've gotten there on the back of the 4th most sacks, 8th-most drives ending in an offensive turnover, and fewest yards per play allowed in the league. They are the 5th-best run defense in the league, allowing only 3.9 yards per run. That will be especially important against a Patriots offense that is 8th-best in yards per rush but only 20th in yard per pass. The Patriots want to run the ball, and if the Rams can stop that, they'll force the Patriots to depend on a passing attack that has thrown the 3rd-most interceptions in the league. In fact, the Patriots offense has the 4th-most drives ending in a turnover, which the Rams will be especially able to capitalize on.
The Seahawks have really come on of late, averaging seven fantasy DST points per game over the last four weeks. That may only be good for 12th over that span, but they've taken on passing attacks in the Rams, Cardinals, and Eagles that were able to take advantage of their issues in the secondary. The Jets aren't a team that is going to be able to consistently do that. The Jets are 25th in sacks allowed and dead last in offensive drives ending in a score, which makes them a tasty matchup for a Seahawks defense that is 7th in sacks, 8th in quarterback knockdowns, and 6th in quarterback hurries. We have seen Sam Darnold make terrible decisions when under pressure, which could lead to a few turnovers on Sunday as well.
The Steelers did not show up to play last night while the Bills came out and put on a clinic. However, you best believe the Steelers will come out on a mission on Sunday night. The Bills are not an easy offense to attack, but they have the 11th-most offensive drives that end in a turnover and have allowed the 16th-most sacks. They handled San Francisco on Monday, but Joey Bosa had a field day against the Bills last week, and the Steelers' defense, which leads the league in pressure rate, blitz rate, and sacks, may experience the same type of success.
Tier 2 Defenses
| Rank | Tier | DST | Week 14 Opponent | Confidence Rating |
| 5 | 2 | Washington Football Team Defense | @ SF | 10.7 |
| 6 | 2 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers Defense | vs MIN | 10.5 |
| 7 | 2 | Baltimore Ravens Defense | @ CLE | 10.2 |
| 8 | 2 | San Francisco 49ers Defense | vs WAS | 9.6 |
Washington really showed up to play against a strong Steelers unit last night. There's a chance Jimmy Garoppolo makes it back for this game, which will make the 49ers even healthier on offense, but George Kittle will still be out, and this offensive line has given up 27 sacks, which is 20th in the league. The 49ers are also 26th in offensive drives ending in a turnover, which is not great news against a Washington defense that is 3rd in sacks, 4th in pressure rate, and 9th in defensive drives ending in an offensive score. They could be in the backfield often, hounding whoever is at quarterback and racking up fantasy points. Yet, on the other side of the ball, Washington allows sacks on 8.3% of dropbacks, which is 28th in the league and ranks 21st in offensive drives ending in a turnover. Antonio Gibson has been great, but San Francisco is 8th-best in rushing yards allowed and Gibson left Monday night's game with turf toe, which can often linger, so this may wind up being an ugly, low-scoring game with a bunch of sacks on either side.
I'm not nearly as confident in the Bucs defense as I was four weeks ago. However, they had two weeks to prepare for a middle-of-the-pack Vikings offense and have the league's stingiest run defense, which can make life hard on Dalvin Cook. If Kirk Cousins is forced to pass, he may complete some deep balls against Tampa's secondary, but he will also be trusting an offensive line that is 17th in sacks allowed against a defense that is 2nd in the league in pressure rate, 6th in sacks, 4th in quarterback knockdown percentage, and 7th in defensive drives ending in an offensive turnover. This isn't as dominant a unit as it was before, so expect the Vikings to put up some points, but I also expect a handful of sacks and maybe a turnover or two, which should keep the Bucs as a top-10 unit on the week.
The Ravens are another team that hasn't suited up this week, and we won't have seen a fully healthy Ravens team in about three weeks now. However, we're well aware of the talent on that defense. They are 9th in pressure rate, 3rd in quarterback knockdown percentage, and 12th in defensive drives ending in a turnover. From Weeks 1-11, they were the 3rd ranked fantasy defense, averaging 9.8 points per game. I expect that defense to be the one that takes the field in a week, and they will have a lot on the line against a Browns team that is 21st in offensive drives ending in a turnover. The Ravens will use their league-high blitz rate to pressure Baker Mayfield, which has always led to defensive success in the past.
Tier 3 Defenses
| Rank | Tier | DST | Week 14 Opponent | Confidence Rating |
| 9 | 3 | Indianapolis Colts Defense | @ LV | 9.1 |
| 10 | 3 | Arizona Cardinals Defense | @ NYG | 8.5 |
| 11 | 3 | Carolina Panthers Defense | vs. DEN | 8.3 |
| 12 | 3 | New York Giants Defense | vs. ARI | 8.0 |
| 13 | 3 | Philadelphia Eagles Defense | vs NO | 7.6 |
| 14 | 3 | Buffalo Bills Defense | vs. PIT | 7.5 |
| 15 | 3 | New England Patriots Defense | @ LAR | 7.1 |
The Colts ranking may change if Josh Jacobs plays this week, but considering he didn't practice at all last week, there is a chance that he is not able to get back on the field. If he's out, it drastically changes the nature of the Raiders' offense. Even with Jacobs, the Raiders are 20th in turnovers allowed and 24th in the percentage of drives that end in turnovers. That could be problematic against a Colts team that is 10th in the league in defensive drives that end in turnover and now fully healthy after dealing with injuries for the better part of a month. The Colts are a league-average defense in terms of pressure rate, and the Raiders don't give up sacks, which is what keeps the Colts just outside the top-10 for me, but they have the ability to sneak into the top-10 with some opportunistic defensive play.
The Giants and Cardinals game may be more of a sneaky defensive showdown than people realize. Colt McCoy led the Giants to a big win over the Seahawks, but Giants fans should hope he doesn't line up under center again. The veteran threw for only 105 yards while adding a touchdown and an interception on Sunday afternoon. He was also sacked twice and will now have the face a Cardinals defense that has the 6th highest blitz rate, 8th in pressure rate, and 14th in sacks. The Giants are 27th in sacks allowed and 26th in offensive drives ending in a turnover, so the blitz-heavy approach of the Cardinals could lead to a few turnovers to cushion a solid fantasy floor. On the other side of the ball, the Giants will be facing a clearly banged-up Kyler Murray. The second-year pro has been hampered by an injury to the AC join in his throwing shoulder, and this Cardinals offense has simply not looked the same in recent weeks. Adding to that, the Giants defense just dominated a strong Seahawks offense. They are 7th in pressure rate, 9th in sacks, and 8th in defensive drives ending in an offensive touchdown. They're riding a hot streak, tied for the 8th-ranked defense since Week 7, and could pose a problem for the Cardinals.
Carolina makes for a sneaky fantasy defense after scoring 37 total fantasy points from Weeks 10-12. The Broncos offense makes for a strong unit to attack; however, the Panthers are also dealing with a COVID outbreak that has already cost them, D.J. Moore, Curtis Samuel, Derrick Brown, and Shaq Thompson. As we get more information on the situation, the Panthers may find themselves anywhere from Tier 2 to Tier 5, while a Broncos Defense that ranks 3rd in pressure rate may move up, despite the likely return of Christian McCaffrey.
The Eagles offense is a mess. Of that, there is no doubt. However, they have the 6th-best pressure rate and 2nd-most sacks in the league, so they will bring the pressure. Their strong rushing defense will also force the ball into Taysom Hill's hands as a passer bit more than the Saints may like, which could lead to more turnover opportunities. Without Drew Brees under center, the Saints are a slower, more methodical offense, and the Eagles just put up a top-1o performance against a more dynamic Packers offense, so they might be able to sneak into the top-10 again. After all, they are the 7th-ranked defense since Week 7.
The Bills have been an entirely different defense in the second half of the season. Since Week 7, they rank 8th respectively in average points per game and have started to get healthy again, with their starting defense playing together for the first time all season last night. The Bills will face a stiff test in Pittsburgh, but the Steelers' offense struggled to move the ball against Washington last night, and the Bills will bring a defensive unit that is 12th in sacks and 6th in defensive drives ending in an offensive turnover. The Bills' biggest weakness is against the run, but if the Steelers aren't able to get James Conner back in time then they likely won't be able to take advantage of that. Lastly, the Steelers will be playing their third game in 12 days, so there's also just a decent chance the players will be worn down.
Don't look now, but the Patriots are making some noise. Yes, they dropped a winnable game against the Texans, but after beating the Ravens and absolutely dismantling the Chargers, this is a defense that needs to be paid attention to. They are only 16th in pressure rate and 26th in sacks, so they are not getting to the quarterback too often, but they make their points off of being an opportunistic defense that is 3rd in the league in defensive drives ending in an offensive turnover. It has led to some inconsistent performances, but they also showed last week that they have the ability to win you a week. Jared Goff has protected the ball relatively well this year, but the Rams are 27th in turnovers lost, so they could very well give the Patriots a chance to make a big play on defense.
Tier 4 Defenses
| Rank | Tier | DST | Week 14 Opponent | Confidence Rating |
| 16 | 4 | Kansas City Chiefs Defense | @ MIA | 6.7 |
| 17 | 4 | Atlanta Falcons Defense | @ LAC | 6.5 |
| 18 | 4 | Denver Broncos Defense | @ CAR | 5.9 |
| 19 | 4 | Green Bay Packers Defense | @ DET | 5.6 |
| 20 | 4 | Tennessee Titans Defense | @ JAX | 4.9 |
| 21 | 4 | Chicago Bears Defense | vs HOU | 3.9 |
| 22 | 4 | Dallas Cowboys Defense | @ CIN | 3.7 |
Tier 5 Defenses
| Rank | Tier | DST | Week 14 Opponent | Confidence Rating |
| 23 | 5 | Houston Texans Defense | @ CHI | 3.4 |
| 24 | 5 | Cleveland Browns Defense | vs BAL | 3.1 |
| 25 | 5 | Cincinnati Bengals Defense | vs DAL | 2.8 |
| 26 | 5 | Miami Dolphins Defense | vs KC | 2.2 |
| 27 | 5 | Los Angeles Chargers Defense | vs ATL | 1.9 |
| 28 | 5 | Las Vegas Raiders Defense | vs IND | 1.7 |
| 29 | 5 | Minnesota Vikings Defense | @ TB | 1.2 |
| 30 | 5 | New York Jets Defense | @SEA | 0.9 |
| 31 | 5 | Jacksonville Jaguars Defense | vs TEN | 0.7 |
| 32 | 5 | Detroit Lions Defense | vs GB | 0.4 |
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