How NOT to Overreact to NFL Week 1

Week 1 is the absolute peak of overreaction season in fantasy football. Studs underwhelmed while undrafted players shined. Gage Bridgford advises how not to overreact and which players to trade, hold, or add at QB, RB, WR, and TE for 2020.

First thing’s first: take a deep breath. If you had a great Week 1, congratulations. If your team underpeformed, you’re not alone. Now is not the time to panic, and you have to be patient because your studs are studs for a reason. This is a one-game sample, so you need to maintain your patience with these guys. 

Those of you that are experienced in fantasy understand that Week 1 is always the craziest week of the season. You know that you’ll see guys like Kansas City Chiefs wideout Sammy Watkins explode for three touchdowns in one game then do nothing the rest of the season, or you’ll see a stud lay an egg to start the year for one reason or another. If it continues to Week 2 of Week 3, you might need to panic, but, for now, just relax. 

Today, we’ll be looking at the overreactions I’ve seen from around the Twitterverse over the last 24 hours. If I’m in a league with you, and you’re thinking about making one of these mistakes, please do it so I can reap the rewards. Now, on the other hand, let’s try to protect you from making one of these mistakes and putting yourself in a hole this early in the season.

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Jared Goff Will Regress Upwards

Los Angeles Rams quarterback Jared Goff had just 10.50 points in Week 1, and that number just isn’t indicative of his actual performance. He completed 20-of-31 passes for 275 yards. He wasn’t able to get any touchdowns on the night, and that gave him the sad final stat line. Throw in the interception he had when he threw the ball behind wideout Van Jefferson, and that night gets even worse. Goff did have four carries for 15 yards though, which was nice.

The Rams scored two touchdowns on Sunday, and they were from one and two yards out. One of them saw wide receiver Josh Reynolds get tackled at the two-yard line. Goff finished as QB13 last year, and he averaged 19 points per game. Goff is likely not your QB1 unless you completely punted on the position, but he’s still a solid option. Looking at Goff’s splits from last season, his 19 wasn’t indicative of his first-half performance. Nearly all of his metrics remained the same outside of an uptick in interceptions to drag his performance down.

Kirk Cousins’ Stat Line is Lying to You

The Minnesota Vikings got smoked in Week 1. The final score makes it look like they only lost by nine, but they got beaten into the ground. If you’re scouting box scores, quarterback Kirk Cousins completed 19-of-25 passes for 259 yards, two touchdowns and an interception. He also had four carries for 34 yards. All of that is well and good, but Cousins put up no stats when it mattered. He scored 21.76 points in Week 1. At the end of the first half, he had zero points on the dot.

This Vikings’ offense does not want to air the ball out unless they have to. If they had it their way, they would hand the ball to their running backs Dalvin Cook and Alexander Mattison every single play.If you own Cousins, I would be trying to get value for him right now before he craters in their next win where he has just four throws. Last year, in games where the Vikings lost, Cousins was six points below his scoring average in wins. When this team expects Kirk to throw them into a game, they get beat.

Nick Chubb is Still the RB1

The Cleveland Browns Defense did running back Nick Chubb dirty in Week 1. While the offense was struggling to put up points, they’re not going to lean on his talents to milk the clock when they’re down 18 points at the end of the first half. He was actually extremely efficient with his touches which is the unfortunate part. He had 10 carries for 60 yards to go with one catch for six yards. After the Sunday games, he was RB47 on the week with just 5.6 points because of a lost fumble.

After Kareem Hunt got on the field last season, Chubb’s production got cut by 34 percent, but that wasn’t because he was dramatically less effective. His touchdown production cut down by an average of 0.5 per game, and his receiving work dwindled. His rushing is still effective, and this team will have better games going forward where he will be more involved throughout the game rather than blown out in the first half.

Don’t Trust Malcolm Brown

This one applies to Week 1 this year and last year. Last season, he was outcarried by former teammate Todd Gurley, but he fell into the end zone twice. Fast forward a year, and he did it again. He had just three more carries than rookie running back Cam Akers, but he was able to get into the end zone for two touchdowns. The volume doesn’t match the final fantasy line. While he could be the lead running back every week, you can’t rely on the touchdowns.

Akers even got the first two carries from scrimmage. Brown was brought in when the Rams got down to the six-yard line, and he got the ball into the end zone. You just can’t on him to get into the end zone every week, and you shouldn’t be putting him into your lineups as a result. Unless one running back clearly separates in this backfield, I won’t be starting any of them any time soon.

Michael Thomas is Still Good

New Orleans Saints wide receiver Michael Thomas was nearly the unanimous WR1 entering this season, and, in Week 1, he had what would have been his worst game in 2019. He finished with just 4.7 PPR points after catching three of his five targets for 17 yards. The Saints’ offense just looked disjointed all afternoon, and Thomas fell victim to that. He will be better moving forward.

Quarterback Drew Brees was checking the ball down a lot, and 16 of his 30 targets went in the direction of the running backs or tight ends. Even when Brees was out last season, Thomas was putting up elite fantasy numbers with quarterback Teddy Bridgewater in place. This week was an outlier for him.

The high-ankle sprain that will keep him out several weeks is an obvious blow to his fantasy value. Don't sell low on him now, though. You are better off keeping him benched until the second half of the year where he can re-emerge and help you when it matters.

If you Have Sammy Watkins, Don’t Get Fooled Again

In Week 1 of last season, he had nine catches for 198 yards and three touchdowns. He didn’t perform like that again for the rest of the year. Now, he had seven catches for 82 yards and a touchdown. He led the team in catches, yards and targets in Week 1, and it’s just highly unlikely that he’ll be doing that considering he was third on the team in targets per game last season. He had just one more target than teammate Tyreek Hill despite playing two more games.

Now is the time to get value for Watkins while you can. This Chiefs’ offense is a gold mine, but it’s also impossible to predict. Hill and tight end Travis Kelce will always be locked in players for fantasy, but the other pass catchers are impossible to predict. Teammate Demarcus Robinson was a drop away from having a 15-point game to open the season. Over one-fourth of Watkins’ fantasy production came in that crazy Week 1 game last season. He can’t be trusted on a consistent basis. Start the studs, and let other people have the headache of trying to figure out who’s week it is to explode.

George Kittle is Better Than This

Our final topic of the day is tight end George Kittle. Kittle is still the TE1 in fantasy football. He’s just the best player in the game at his position. His blocking ability keeps him on the field at all times, and he’s quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo’s favorite target. Kittle got paid a contract that reset the market for a reason, and he’s going to have better games moving forward.

The craziest thing about this split is when it takes place. Kittle was dealing with an injury down the back stretch of last season, but that didn’t stop him from averaging nearly five more points per game during the final seven games. Kittle is as good as they come, and, after wideout Deebo Samuel’s (foot) setback, his stock just rose even higher in the immediate future. His own injury suffered in Week 1 may have hampered him a bit but it doesn't sound like he will miss any games.

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