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Dan Yanofsky's MMA betting picks for UFC Fight Night, Angela Hill vs. Ashley Yoder II. Read his winning fighter predictions, analysis and betting tips.
Welcome back, RotoBallers. Thanks for joining me again for another fight breakdown, where I give you my analysis and predictions.
It has been about four years since Angela Hill and Ashley Yoder faced one another. Both will run it back in a bout a bout that was rescheduled just a few weeks ago. In a stacked strawweight division, who will stand out?
By looking at the history and stats of both fighters, we may end up determining if Hill will have the edge or if Yoder can make this a truly competitive series.
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UFC Fight Night: Fighter Backgrounds
Before becoming an MMA fighter, Hill was a kickboxer. She made her MMA debut in 2014 and immediately made herself known in the UFC. After beating Emily Kagan, Hill lost to Tecia Torres and Rose Namajunas. Released by the promotion, Hill fought for Invicta, where she won the Invicta FC Strawweight Title.
Hill returned to the UFC and amassed a 3-5 record from 2017 until the end of 2019. One of those wins was a unanimous decision win over Yoder. "Overkill" has gone 3-2 in her last five fights, her last two being questionable losses against Claudia Gadelha and Michelle Waterson. This will be Hill's ninth fight since March 2019. Ranked eleventh in the UFC's strawweight rankings, the 36-year-old is looking to have another productive year.
Yoder made her MMA debut in 2014. Fighting for BAMMA and Invicta, Yoder carried a 5-1 record to the UFC. She lost her first three bouts with the promotion, her second against Hill. "Spider Monkey" has since gone 3-2, her last fight a unanimous decision win against Miranda Granger in November.
The 33-year-old is not ranked in the strawweight division, something she is looking to change. Since 2016, all results from Yoder's bouts have come via decision. She may have to pull all the stops to gain a measure of revenge.
Both were supposed to fight on February 27, but it was scrapped due to one of Yoder's cornermen testing positive for COVID-19.
UFC Fight Night: Fight Outlook and Prediction
When it comes to who everyone believes has the advantage, the DraftKings Sportsbook has Hill as a -360 favorite and Yoder the +275 underdog. The planned fight a few weeks ago had Hill as the -400 favorite and Yoder the +300 underdog. It is also predicted that this fight will go the distance, a theme for both fighters. In her first fight against Yoder, Hill was the -275 favorite and Yoder was the +175 underdog. Do the stats match up with the sportsbook?
Hill has an astronomical advantage when it comes to Significant Strikes Landed per Minute, with about 5.70 compared to Yoder's 2.81. They are about even, however, when it comes to Significant Striking Accuracy, with Hill at 49% and Yoder at 41%. Hill's strike defense (63%) is in her favor over Yoder's 47%.
One thing to keep an eye on is the takedowns. Yoder has an advantage (1.25) in Average Takedowns Landed per 15 minutes compared to Hill (0.41). Both are dead even when it comes to Takedown Accuracy, which could result in a game of both throwing one another around. Yoder goes for more submissions, with four wins via armbar while Hill has zero.
Looking into the submissions further, Yoder has landed seven takedowns in her last five bouts, while Hill has landed just two. In her last fight, Yoder landed ten significant ground head strikes. Yoder mentioned coming in guns blazing right from the start, and if she gets Hill on the ground, it could be game over.
One thing we can’t do, however, is count Angela Hill out. Hill is a striking machine; in her last five fights, Hill has land 482 shots, 431 of them significant. 146 of those shots came against Waterson last fight out. Primarily a body striker, Hill can damage an opponent’s leg just like that. In her last five fights, Yoder has landed 528 strikes, 215 of them significant, however. If Hill can land the ones that count, and there are plenty of them, it could just make the ultimate difference.
It has been a long time since both fought one another. With both growing in their own way, it was only a matter of time.
Yoder’s nickname could come into play here; she can latch onto Hill and never let go. If Hill lets the fight stay on the feet, however, she could end up having the advantage. The theme of the past few fights for these competitors has been bouts going the distance. If both can avoid the specialties of the other, the judges are sure to have a fun night ahead of them. If that is the case, Hill may just go 2-0 against Yoder.
Prediction: Hill via split decision
