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The NASCAR Cup Series visits Richmond this week for the first short track race with the new generation of race car. What kind of action will the race produce?
Last week at COTA, Ross Chastain earned the first win of his career, making him the third first-time winner already this season, joining Austin Cindric and Chase Briscoe. Chase Elliott, who has yet to win a race, leads the points standings by 13 points over Ryan Blaney, who is also winless.
Below are some drivers to consider for DFS purposes this week. If you have any questions or want to talk NASCAR, you can find me on Twitter at @juscarts.
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Kyle Larson
Starts 21st - DraftKings $10,200 | FanDuel $13,000
Richmond isn't Larson's best track. In fact, his last top five here was back in 2017.
But that 2017 race was a win for Larson, as he led 53 laps that day and earned the win in overtime.
Since then, he's led eight laps here, all in the fall 2021 race, when he finished sixth.
Anyway, Larson has a huge amount of place differential upside on Sunday. He could struggle like he did last spring here, when he didn't lead a lap and finished 18th. But my policy is "play Hendrick cars that start outside the top 20 every time, no matter what," so we're doing that. It's why you should have a healthy amount of Alex Bowman too, even though I'm not writing about him in this article. (This is why I hope you read the writing and don't just look at the names that are in the headlines.)
Kyle Busch
Starts 3rd - DraftKings $9,900 | FanDuel $12,500
Is this qualifying spot a sign that Toyota has found its speed? Maybe. Maybe not.
But if I'm looking for someone on the first two rows to get an early lead, it's Busch. Polesitter Ryan Blaney has an average finish of 22.2 here. Second-place starter William Byron has an average finish of 16.6. Kyle Busch, meanwhile, has six Richmond wins and an average finish of 6.8. The only track he's been better at is Kentucky. If Toyota is going to have one of those dominant races that Toyota has been able to have in the past, I think it'll happen Sunday. Busch is my pick to win this race.
Martin Truex Jr.
Starts 6th - DraftKings $9,600 | FanDuel $14,000
It's been a down year for Truex so far, as he hasn't recorded a top five yet. Like with Kyle Busch, he's been a victim of Toyota's struggles to get things right with the new car.
But this is Richmond, the site of three of Truex's career wins, all since 2019. In the last eight Cup Series races here, Truex has led 80 or more laps seven times. He's led over 100 laps six timnes. He's led over 150 laps three times. He's been very, very good here since he moved to Furniture Row and then to Gibbs. Even with the issues this team has had this year, Truex is a threat to win. His FanDuel price is a little high, but I think there's good value to exploit here on DraftKings. He can theoretically be your third-highest-priced play in a viable lineup!
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Kurt Busch
Starts 27th - DraftKings $7,900 | FanDuel $7,000
Busch already has two top fives this season and has an average finish of 13.3, so it just seems like common sense to play him for the place differential upside when he starts 27th.
But he's also a two-time Richmond winner, if you want more reasons. His last top 10 here was in 2017, but he's had some solid runs since. He led 98 laps in 2018 but finished 11th. He led 15 laps in 2020 and finished 13th. And he led four laps here last year, but crashed on lap 40 and finished 37th. The runs have been solid, and from this starting position, you'll be happy on DK if he gets close to the top 10.
Justin Haley
Starts 36th - DraftKings $6,300 | FanDuel $5,000
Here's our major PD play. Haley has had issues this weekend and starts 36th on Sunday, ahead of only Greg Biffle (who I suppose is a punt option).
Haley's average finish this season is 17.7. He hasn't gotten a top 10 yet, but he has consecutive top 15s as this Kaulig car is starting to feel a little stronger.
Also of note: in five Xfinity starts here, Haley has four top 10s. That includes a pair of second-place finishes, with Haley leading 51 laps in one of those. This is a track that he knows his way around.
Harrison Burton
Starts 17th - DraftKings $5,700 | FanDuel $4,500
This is my "Justin, why would you tell me to roster this guy" pick of the race. But hear me out.
Yes, it's true that Burton hasn't looked great in this 21 car. And yes, it's true that he starts higher than I'd like if I viewed him solely as a place differential play.
But I don't just view him as that.
Burton led 43 laps in the last Xfinity race he ran here and could have won if not for a late caution. The race before that, he finished fourth. This is a good track for Burton and this could be the race we've been waiting for with the rookie—one where he actually looks like he can challenge for a top 10.
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