RADIO
Welcome, RotoBallers! If you do not know me, my name is Mark and I write NFL, MLB, and NHL on Rotoballer. I play NHL DFS almost daily, and am excited to bring you my thoughts on today's slate!
Today I'll be bringing you my NHL lineup picks, analysis, and advice for NHL DFS contests on DraftKings and FanDuel for Thursday, February 24th, 2022 at 5:00 PM EST. Be sure to also check out our awesome suite of NHL DFS lineup tools including our Lineup Optimizer, Research Station, DFS Projections, and DFS Cheat Sheets!
If you have any questions on today's slate, bankroll management, GPP strategy, Cash game strategy, or anything else don’t hesitate to hit me up on Twitter @Mark_Kieffer or in our premium slack chat. Good luck, RotoBallers!
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NHL DFS Analysis and Picks for 2/24/22
We have an eight game slate tonight including four starting at 7:00 p.m. Eastern Time, one at 8:30 p.m. Eastern, two at 10:00 p.m. Eastern and one game at 10:30 p.m. Eastern Time. We haven't seen as many players get ruled out late, but it's always good to check if projected starting goalies are indeed starting before the individual game locks. The same thing goes with players that are day-to-day as you may not get an update until 20-30 minutes before the puck drops! Nothing is more frustrating than having a great lineup and getting a zero from any position but especially goalie!
NHL DFS Goalies
Jusse Saros - DK $7.8K || FD $8.0K
Opponent - Dallas Stars
Jusee Saros has not been playing as of recently. His save percentage has been below 90% in four of his last five games, while his season save percentage is 92.2%. Last time out against Dallas, Saros had a bad game. He allowed four goals and scored just 2.1 DraftKings points and 2.4 FanDuel points. Dallas is going to be on game two of a back-to-back, they have to travel to Nashville, and Saros is due for some positive regression at some point, why not here?
Others To Consider (Cash/GPP): Jarry (DK $8.3K || FD $8.4K), Markstrom (DK $8.2K || FD $7.8K), Bobrovsky (DK $8.5K || FD $8.6K), Kahkonen (DK $7.7K || FD $7.5K - GPP only)
NHL DFS Centers
When rostering a Center you have to decide if you are going to pair or stack with a winger. If pairing or stacking, you can go for a pass-first center that will be a little less expensive in hopes of them getting an assist to the winger(s) you have. If you are looking for a Center as a stand-alone player, I recommend rostering Centers that are expected to take a lot of shots on goal. Below you will find recommendations that fall in both camps.
Aleksander Barkov- DK $8.1K || FD $9.1K
Opponent - Columbus Blue Jackets
There are several high end centers to consider: Auston Matthews, Sidney Crosby, Patrice Bergeron, and all are worth considering. Barkov is my top high end play on this slate going against a Blue Jackets team that has goaltending issues and is leaky on defense. While Berube (likely starter) is off to a good start this season (2-0, .923 SV%), his AHL stats this season were 4-9-4, 3.37 GAA, 0.891 SV %. Barkov is someone who can get 3-6 shots on goal in any game. Barkov has 45 points in 38 games played, and averages 3.26 shots on goal per game. Florida should have a big game which means Barkov could have a big game too.
Evgeni Malkin - DK $5.8K || FD $7.3K
Opponent - New Jersey Devils
Malkin is coming off a couple of nice games and looks to keep it going tonight against a weak New Jersey Devils team. Malkin has 17 points in 16 games played this season. Malking averages 2.68 shots on goal per game and has had as many as six shots on goal on more than one occassion. He tends to get more assists (11) than goals (6), so I prefer to have Malkin as part of a pairing or stack rather than a standlone option.
Others To Consider (CASH/GPP): Bergeron (DK $7.1K || FD $6.6K), Matthews (DK $9.3K || FD$10.2K), Crosby (DK $7.5K || FD $8.4K), Seguin (DK $5.2K || FD $5.7K)
NHL DFS Wings
Generally, with wingers, I want players that are likely to take many shots on goal at a reduced price. I play tournaments and generally stack, but if I am playing a winger as a one-off I want a guy that is going to shoot a lot and hopefully scores.
Patrik Laine - DK $6.2K || FD $7.0K
Opponent - Florida Panthers
Generally I do not target offenses against Florida but Laine is hot and shooting the puck frequently. He has 35 points in 31 games played along with averaging 2.8 shots on goal per game. More recently, he has had 13 shots on goal in his last three games. The last time out against Florida, in a 8-4 blowout loss, Laine had three shots on goal with two of those shots scoring a goal. I am not calling for a multi-goal game here but he should get several shots on goal here providing a decent floor with the upside of scoring multiple goals in the game.
Jonathan Huberdeau- DK $7.2K|| FD $8.8K
Opponent - Columbus Blue Jackets
On the other side of the same game is the more expensive Huberdeau. Huberdeau has 72 points in 51 games played, averages 2.75 shots on goal per game, and has had two or more points in three straight games. If you can afford to spend a little bit, I actually prefer Huberdeau for the price more than some of the high end options.
Others To Consider (CASH/GPP): Ovechkin (DK $8.7K || FD $10K - Prefer as part of a stack), Pastrnak (DK $8.4K || FD $8.5K), Forsberg (DK $6.5K || FD $8.5K), Panarin (DK $5.9K || FD $7.8K), Mangiapane (DK $4.7K || FD $6.7K), Toffoli (DK $3.7K || FD $5.7K)
NHL DFS Defensemen
My general rule of thumb with Defensemen is if I am spending up at the position, I want that player to be on the Powerplay with a chance to score a goal. This is also a position I will punt quite a bit at. If I am punting, I want a player that is projected to get a good amount of ice time and has a chance to get a blocked shot bonus on DraftKings. I also try to find defensemen on a power play (might be the 2nd one) if I can.
This slate does not have a lot of great defenseman value at the top of the salary and I would advise to either punt here or add a power-play defenseman to a stack if playing a GPP.
Aaron Ekblad - DK $6.8K || FD $6.9K
Opponent - Columbus Blue Jackets
Take Aaron Ekblad at a discount compared to Roman Josi and enjoy a similar floor/upside here. Ekblad has 48 points in 50 games including scoring a point in Florida's blowout of Columbus earlier this month. He has scored a goal in four straight games, he is on the power play, and he has had 17 shots on goal in his last four games.
Kris Letang- DK $7.0K || FD $7.1K
Opponent - New Jersey Devils
Kris Letang is nearly a point per game player and averages 2.77 shots on goal per game. He is on the top power play and is playing for a heavy favorite in a game that could be a blowout. He is the kind of player that will get you an assist and a couple of shots on goal more consistently than many defensemen. He does not get into the bonuses on DraftKings often but at a payup position, I like the consistency.
Others To Consider (CASH/GPP): Josi (DK $7.5K || FD $7.5K), McAvoy (DK $6.2K || FD $5.2K), Weegar (DK $5.2K || FD $5.7K), Klingberg (DK $4.4K || FD $4.9K), Peeke (DK $3.2K || FD $3.9K)
NHL DFS GPP Strategy
This will come as no surprise, I am a single entry and 3 max DFS player, but I will look to fade all of those lowest implied total teams and try to target stacks in the high implied total games.
Florida (4.8 implied goals) and Pittsburgh (4.4 implied goals) are the two teams with the highest implied totals on the slate and both are viable stacks on this slate. Boston (3.7 implied goals), Toronto (3.7 implied goals), Nashville (3.1 implied goals), Calgary (3.1 implied goals), and Minnesota (3.0 implied goals) are the bunch in the middle.
Generally in a situation like Florida and Pittsburgh, I will fade the top line; if I feel like I need exposure to those games, I will look to get different.
That said my top favorite tonight are as follows:
Nashville PP 1: Granlund - Forsberg- Duchene - Josi would be my preference here. Dallas has the No. 20 penalty kill percentage on the season, Nashville has the No. 9 Power Play Percentage this season, and this Power Play Combination has scored the fourth most Power Play Goals out of all the Power Play combinations run this season according to Left Wing Lock. This is also fully correlated to Nashville 1. Granlund-Forsberg-Duchene has the No. 4 even strength goals out of all the forward combinations that have hit the ice this season according to Left Wing Lock as well.
Toronto PP1: Marner-Matthews-Tavares-Nylander would be my preference but you could play Rielly instead of one of these guys as wel. What I like about these four is that you have two of three skaters on each of the Top 2 lines. Minnesota's penalty kill is No. 19 in the league, Toronto has the No. 1 Power Play Percentage this season too. The Wild are also No. 3 in penalties committed per game.
Dallas 1/PP1: Hintz-Pavelski-Robertson has scored the third-most even-strength goals out of all the forward combinations that have hit the ice this NHL season. As a Power Play, they are No. 9. I do not mind adding a fourth player such as Klingberg to make this a Power Play stack. Dallas has the No. 8 Power Play Percentage in the NHL while Nashville's penalty kill is No. 15, league average. What also attracts me to this power play is Nashville commits the most penalties per game out of all the teams in the NHL. This is more of a GPP play as Dallas could go overlooked, and Saros could be a popular goalie tonight.
Florida 3: Did you know that Marchment-Lundell-Reinhart have scored the most even strength goals for Florida this season? Florida 2 will be popular and will project as the top line for Florida. Florida 3 is a great way to get different exposure to the game. I will use as a secondary stack and I am hoping the leverage here could allow me to roster a primary stack that is potentially a bit chalky.
Rangers PP1: The Rangers are one of the best Power Play teams in the league while Washington's Penalty Kill Percentage is just No. 18 in the league. You could go Strome-Panarin-Zibanejad-Kreider to get exposure to each of the top two lines, or you could you swap one of those players for Adam Fox. I am learning towards the first option here. Only implied for 2.9 goals, the Rangers could be ignored.
Boston PP1: This might be the best stack of the night with Seattle having the worst penalty skill on the slate tonight. The issue for me is that combination could be one of the most rostered. This is a situation to monitor and also be thoughtful of your other pieces. If Boston will be 20%+, one needs to make sure the secondary stack and goalie are not chalky.
