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Week 6 is upon us and tomorrow we get to watch more NFL football and a few potential thrilling shootouts in Buffalo-Kansas City and Seattle-Arizona! Whether you like to bet game totals, sides, or player props, I have something in here for you, and try to cover a little bit of everything!
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In this article, I'll be providing my favorite NFL betting picks for week six of the 2022 NFL season. The odds on these bets vary from book to book and are constantly changing. I primarily use FanDuel and DraftKings sportsbooks, but I would strongly encourage you to shop for the best odds at whatever books you use daily. I would also advise checking back later in the week as I may add bets depending on odds changing or specific props becoming available after I first post.
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Thunder Dan's Best Bets: 2022 NFL Season
- Last Week's Props: 3-8
- Season-to-Date Props: 16-22
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NFL Betting Picks: Player Props for Week 6
PASSING/RUSHING/RECEIVING YARDS
Kirk Cousins OVER 259.5 passing yards (-115 DK)
The Vikings get an extreme pass funnel defense here with Miami ranking 7th against the run, but 32nd against the pass. Cousins has 260 or more passing yards in four of five games this year and this game has a fairly high total, meaning we expect Miami to do some scoring of their own and force the Vikings to keep passing and putting up points.
Marcus Mariota UNDER 197.5 passing yards (-115 DK)
Mariota and the Falcons prefer not to throw it if they don’t have to and this week they get a really tough Niners’ defense to contend with on Sunday. Mariota has just 19 and 25 pass attempts in their last two games and threw for just 139 and 147 in those. San Francisco should control the clock in this one, too, meaning fewer possessions for Atlanta.
Alvin Kamara OVER 100.5 rushing + receiving yards (-120 DK)
The Saints are without Michael Thomas and Jarvis Landry again, with hopes that Chris Olave can still play. We saw Kamara finally get a workhorse-type workload last week as he totaled 29 touches for 194 yards from scrimmage. He’s efficient with his touches, and this Cincy defense is a middling unit at best. He should smash this number in any game script as long as he’s healthy for the entire game.
Leonard Fournette OVER 94.5 rushing yards (-115 DK)
Lenny rushed for 56 yards last week and caught 10 balls for another 83, giving him 139 scrimmage yards. This Tampa offense is starting to fire on all cylinders and they should be able to beat up on a Pittsburgh unit that is allowing big plays in the running game and passing game to opponents. The positive game script should be here for Lenny to pound the ball between the tackles and if for some reason they decide to throw more often, his solid role in the passing game could still get us across the finish line.
Justin Jefferson OVER 87.5 receiving yards (-115 DK)
JJ had a few stinkers there in weeks 2 and 3 but has been beasting out since with an average of 11 catches on 13 targets for 150 yards in his last two games. As I mentioned in Kirk’s write-up, Miami is 32nd in passing DVOA and they’ve allowed the fifth-most passing yards to opponents. This looks like a big number at first, but JJ’s massive target share gives me confidence he gets there.
Devin Duvernay OVER 37.5 receiving yards (-125 DK)
You may need to jump on this number fast, I think it’s going to rise quickly this weekend. Bateman is out, leaving Duvernay as the top receiver other than Mark Andrews for Baltimore. He’s gone over this number four out of five times already with Bateman in the lineup, the added targets should help him cruise over this total with ease.
Anytime Touchdowns
Josh Allen ( +120 DK)
Just one TD prop for me this week, I haven’t had much luck with them lately! I really like the odds on Allen here, though. Jalen Hurts is the only other QB who runs it more often in the red zone and Allen is going to have to use his feet as well as his arm this week to beat the Chiefs. We are getting plus odds on a guy here who has 54% of his team’s rushes inside the 10-yard line!
Receptions
Devin Duvernay o3.5 (+115 DK)
Cooper Kupp o7.5 (-135 DK)
Dallas Goedert o4.5 (+105)
I am double-dipping on Duvernay (say that five times fast) but I just can’t envision a situation where he doesn’t see his target share increase this week and we are getting plus odds for four catches.
Kupp had only seven catches last week but in a terrible match-up against Dallas, I think he gets back on track and they lowered his number by a full reception this week. There is some juice here, but he should be good for 8+.
And Goedert has seen his role in this offense grow lately, with 13 catches on 15 targets in the last two games. Those games against Jacksonville and Arizona were the biggest tests for the Eagles so far, and I expect Dallas to force Philly to throw this week. Hurts should be looking Goedert’s way often and I have noticed they are finally scheming him the ball with some more screens, which have been very effective for them.
I hope you find my picks helpful and profitable! Thanks for checking out my picks and content here at RotoBaller!
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