X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

Using xwOBA as a Predictive Tool for Hitters

Statcast analysis of the xwOBA statistic as a predictive tool for fantasy baseball value. Matt Wilkes finds potential risers and fallers for 2018 drafts.

With spring training on the horizon, fantasy baseball draft season is in sight, as well. That means it’s time to pore over rankings, go through countless mock drafts, and do plenty of research trying to find that diamond in the rough other owners are undervaluing.

Luckily, more statistics are available than ever before to determine which players to target and which to avoid. Statcast has opened up fans and teams to a plethora of new and useful data, bringing statistics like exit velocity and sprint speed to the forefront of baseball conversations and analytics.

One such stat is xwOBA, otherwise known as expected weighted on-base average. It's another tool that fantasy baseball managers have at their disposal to guide them before and during 2018 drafts. Let's take a closer look at the statistic itself and how you can use it to find another advantage.

Be sure to check all of our fantasy baseball lineup tools and resources:

 

Defining xwOBA

First, what is wOBA? Quite simply, it is used to establish the value a player brings per plate appearance, accounting for unintentional walks, hit by pitches, and all base hits. Because some events (e.g., home runs) are more valuable than others (e.g., walks), it uses a weighted scale to determine the given player’s output. It’s scaled like on-base percentage, so a .400 wOBA is elite while a .275 mark is dreadful.

(You can read more about the math behind it here and search the leaderboards on Baseball Savant.)

Expected wOBA is calculated using exit velocity and launch angle of each ball put in play, and it attempts to predict what a player’s production should have been based on these factors, independent of defense. If Kris Bryant crushes a line drive into the gap, but Billy Hamilton runs it down and makes a diving catch, regular ol’ wOBA counts that as a goose egg. On the other hand, xwOBA will calculate what should have been the likely result based on Bryant’s hit probability. This can give a better indication of Bryant’s true skill.

In short, xwOBA can be used to determine whether a player was unlucky because he consistently hit the ball hard right at a defender or lucky because he routinely snuck weak grounders or bloopers past the infield.

If you doubt the statistic’s viability, here are the top 10 players in xwOBA last year (min. 400 at-bats):

Aaron Judge .446
Joey Votto .424
J.D. Martinez .423
Mike Trout .423
Freddie Freeman .403
Nelson Cruz .402
Giancarlo Stanton .398
Justin Turner .397
Paul Goldschmidt .397
Anthony Rizzo .397

No huge surprises here. These are some of the most feared hitters in the game, and xwOBA backs up that notion.

But you already knew that. So how can this metric help fantasy owners? It’s also useful for predicting a player’s future production. By subtracting actual wOBA from expected wOBA, it’s easy to see who did and did not have luck on their side and set your expectations accordingly.

That being said, it’s important to note that while xwOBA is helpful, it — like any other stat — should not be used alone. For example, elite players often outperform their expectations (e.g., Mike Trout). Others are held back (Albert Pujols) or helped (Dee Gordon) by their baserunning ability, which allows them (or doesn’t) to beat out softly hit groundballs and turn singles into doubles. And it's always smart to look at a player's age and past performance to get appropriate context.

With all that aside, let’s look at the top-10 underperformers and overperfomers per xwOBA in 2017 and what that means heading into 2018.

 

On-Base Underperformers

Player xwOBA wOBA xwOBA-wOBA
Miguel Cabrera .382 .322 .060
Mitch Moreland .371 .335 .036
Albert Pujols .326 .294 .032
Kendrys Morales .358 .326 .032
Alex Gordon .300 .275 .025
Hanley Ramirez .351 .328 .023
Manny Machado .357 .335 .022
Shin-Soo Choo .364 .344 .020
Nicholas Castellanos .366 .347 .019
Robinson Cano .363 .345 .018

Does this mean you can expect these players to bounce back this year? Not necessarily. None of these players are exactly burners on the basepaths, so that holds them back a bit. For instance, Pujols had the slowest recorded sprint speed by Statcast, while Kendrys Morales was eighth-slowest. They’re not beating out infield singles and likely aren’t stretching any singles into extra-base hits. Additionally, the xwOBA of Pujols and Alex Gordon were still poor. So while they weren’t as bad as the numbers indicated last year, neither was rosterable for fantasy purposes even if they performed up to expectations.

The other players on the list present more interesting cases. If you want proof of xwOBA’s predictive ability, exhibit A is Manny Machado. Big things were expected from the Baltimore third baseman heading into his fifth full big league season in 2017, but he struggled mightily for the first half of the year, hitting a disappointing .230/.296/.445. His wOBA was a disappointing .319, but his xwOBA (.355 — just a bit below his actual outputs in 2015 and ‘16) was far higher because he was still crushing the ball.

Machado’s average exit velocity was 92.1 mph, 12th in all of baseball. He was due for a rebound, right? After all, his .239 batting average on balls in play was ridiculously below his career mark, which sat at .310 coming into 2017. As expected, he became the Machado everyone knew in the second half, hitting .290/.326/.500 with a .360 xwOBA and .352 wOBA. In other words, don’t expect Machado to hit .259/.310/.471 again or perform like anyone other than a top-tier third baseman.

Another intriguing case is future Hall of Famer Miguel Cabrera, who sits atop the table. While the statistics didn’t reflect it, Cabrera continued to mash the ball last season. His 91.1 mph average exit velocity was 12th among all hitters with 100 or more at-bats and his line-drive percentage was a career-high 27.3 percent. That led to the second-largest discrepancy in baseball between wOBA (.322) and xwOBA (.382). Injuries and his lack of speed played at least a partial role in that number, but luck certainly wasn’t in his favor, either. If he continues to hit the ball with that kind of authority, he isn’t going to hit .249/.329/.399 again.

A similar case can be made for many players on this list. Despite his age, Robinson Cano is still hitting the ball hard and making frequent contact, so it’s not time to expect a decline yet. Nicholas Castellanos had a breakout season and potentially still underachieved. Shin-Soo Choo’s on-base skills and power still make him a viable fantasy outfielder. Mitch Moreland may be a sneaky late-round draft pick at a deep position if his luck turns around.

 

On-Base Overperformers

Player xwOBA wOBA xwOBA-wOBA
Eduardo Nunez .275 .348 -.073
Zack Cozart .332 .399 -.067
Marwin Gonzalez .320 .387 -.067
Jose Altuve .349 .413 -.064
Dee Gordon .254 .318 -.064
Scooter Gennett .312 .374 -.062
Charlie Blackmon .364 .424 -.060
Didi Gregorius .285 .341 -.056
Ender Inciarte .283 .335 -.052
Jose Ramirez .355 .406 -.051

Now that’s a fascinating group of names. There’s an MVP winner (Altuve), an MVP second runner-up (Ramirez), a fifth-place finisher (Blackmon), and a bevy of other notable players. Let’s start with the MVP candidates.

First, Jose Altuve will be fine. Only four players in baseball had an xwOBA higher than his actual wOBA, so it’s not a number many can put up. Plus, he’s not big in stature, so expecting him to hit the ball as hard as, say, Aaron Judge is unreasonable. Moreover, his xwOBA was still respectable at .349 and he also has speed on his side to help him leg out softly-hit balls. He likely won’t put up numbers quite as good as he did in 2017, but he’s a safe bet to be a top fantasy second baseman again.

Charlie Blackmon and Jose Ramirez are in similar situations. They hit above expectations last year, but their projected wOBA was still strong and they bring speed to the table. Expect some regression, but they should be fine. Dee Gordon will also be OK because he can beat out so many of his soft hits. Ender Inciarte and Eduardo Nunez also swiped over 20 bags last season and had above-average sprint speed, so they’re more likely to overcome a poor xwOBA, as well.

It’s unlikely everyone on this list will escape regression, though. Scooter Gennett might be the player to worry about the most. He brings no speed to the table, he doesn’t walk much, he strikes out at an above-average rate, and his power surge (27 home runs) came out of nowhere. While a change in swing mechanics (i.e., launch angle) or a juiced ball may have helped, he’s unlikely to sustain a 20.8 percent home run-to-fly ball ratio or a .374 wOBA with an 86.0 mph average exit velocity.

Didi Gregorius has similar concerns due to poor exit velocity and walk rate, so a dip in his triple slash numbers might occur. He does have above-average speed (28.3 mph vs. 27.0 mph league average) to beat out some hits, however, as well as a short porch in Yankee Stadium to put up 15 or more home runs. Late bloomer Marwin Gonzalez made real strides with his plate discipline, nearly doubling his walk rate, but it's unlikely will he hit for the same average or power. Zack Cozart’s projected wOBA was still solid thanks to his suddenly high walk rate and increased launch angle. But he probably won't produce the same way in a bigger ballpark with no speed to speak of and an average exit velocity of 85.8 mph.

 

What to Make of xwOBA

Getting an edge on fantasy opponents involves more than looking at the categories your league uses. xwOBA is one of the many useful metrics available to determine what to expect from players in the coming year. It should be taken with a grain of salt in some cases, but when taken in full context, it provides excellent insight into player performance that you can utilize to your advantage.

 

More Sabermetrics and Advanced Stats Analysis




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Jalen Ramsey

Steelers Acquiring Jalen Ramsey
Kerry Carpenter

Leaves Game with Apparent Hamstring Injury
Day'Ron Sharpe

Heads to Free Agency
Santi Aldama

Receives Qualifying Offer
Moritz Wagner

has Team Option Declined
Jabari Smith Jr.

Signs Massive Extension
Jusuf Nurkić

Hornets Trading Jusuf Nurkic to Utah
Collin Sexton

Heading to Charlotte
Cam Thomas

Set for Restricted Free Agency
Bobby Portis

Staying in Milwaukee
Jonas Brodin

Expected to Miss Start of Next Season
TB

Conor Sheary Placed on Waivers for Contract Termination
James Harden

Clippers Agree on a New Contract
Dante Fabbro

Stays with Blue Jackets on Four-Year Deal
Joel Hofer

Commits to Blues for Two More Years
Kevin Bahl

Signs Long-Term Extension with Flames
Oneil Cruz

Smacks Two Homers
Jordan Spence

Traded to Ottawa
Petr Mrazek

Heads to Anaheim
John Gibson

Red Wings Acquire John Gibson
Matthew Knies

Inks Six-Year Extension with Maple Leafs
Aaron Judge

Blasts Two Homers, Dealing With Back Issue
Claude Giroux

Signs One-Year Deal with Senators
Yordan Alvarez

has Chance to Return Next Weekend
Julius Randle

Signs Three-Year Extension
Kelly Oubre Jr.

Opts into Player Option
Luis Robert Jr.

Heads to Injured List
Gabriel Arias

Carted Off on Sunday
Bryce Harper

Faces Live Pitching
Jeremy Peña

Jeremy Pena Remains Out on Sunday
Utah Jazz

Bojan Bogdanovic Retiring From Basketball
Dorian Finney-Smith

Declines Player Option
Jaylin Williams

Signing Three-Year Extension
LeBron James

Accepts Player Option
Anfernee Simons

"a Possible Re-Trade Candidate"
Chase Elliott

Ends Winless Skid With Atlanta Victory
Brad Keselowski

Falls Short of Atlanta Victory
NFL

NFL Won't Hold Supplemental Draft This Year
Damon Arnette

Getting Second Chance With Texans
Deommodore Lenoir

Arrested for Obstruction of Justice
Yordan Alvarez

Eyeing Return Before All-Star Break
Kevin Porter Jr.

Declining Player Option
Carson Hocevar

Recovers From Big One to Finish 10th at Atlanta
William Byron

Caught up in Atlanta Big One but Retains Points Lead
Denny Hamlin

Top In-Season Challenge Seed Denny Hamlin Eliminated in Lap 70 Crash
Ty Dillon

Bottom Seed Ty Dillon Upsets Denny Hamlin to Advance in In-Season Challenge
Quinn Priester

Fans 11 in One-Hit Gem
Garrett Temple

Returning to Toronto
Nicolas Batum

Declines Player Option
Spencer Schwellenbach

Dominant in Victory
Keon Johnson

Gets Team Option Picked Up
Rayan Rupert

Staying in Portland
Marvin Harrison Jr.

Expected to Make Second-Year Jump
Jeremy Peña

Jeremy Pena Out of Lineup Saturday
Jalin Hyatt

Looking to Flip the Script in 2025
Garrett Mitchell

to Undergo Shoulder Surgery
José Ramírez

Jose Ramirez in Guardians Lineup on Saturday
Kyle Larson

Don't Expect Kyle Larson to Win First Drafting Track Race on Saturday
Christopher Bell

Unlikely to Complete Atlanta Sweep
Brad Keselowski

Seeks Another Clutch Win for Hail-Mary Playoff Bid
Chris Buescher

Unlikely to Lead Enough to Have Much DFS Value
Alex Bowman

Qualifies Best Among Non-Fords but Unlikely to Contend at Atlanta
Ryan Preece

Will Probably Run Better Than Usual at Atlanta
Austin Dillon

Consistently Mediocre at Atlanta
Ty Gibbs

Slightly Faster Lately but Unlikely to be a Factor at Atlanta
Erik Jones

a Low-Key Strong DFS Option
Noah Gragson

Could Have DFS Value as One of the Lowest-Qualifying Fords
Riley Herbst

Unlikely to Replicate February Atlanta Finish
Ty Dillon

Could Benefit from Kaulig Speed
Cody Ware

Rarely Enough Attrition at Atlanta for Cody Ware to Seriously Contend
Ryan Blaney

Is Always Strong at Atlanta
Joey Logano

Wins Pole, Looking for Third Atlanta Win
Chase Burns

Slated to Make Next Start on Monday
Dylan Sampson

Being Used as a Receiver
Carson Schwesinger

Figures to be in Full-Time Role in 2025
Cedric Tillman

Should Have Full-Time Role
Bryce Young

Looking More Comfortable, Showing More Intensity
Charlie Coyle

Blue Jackets Acquire Charlie Coyle and Miles Wood From Colorado
Jack Quinn

Signs Up for Two More Years with Sabres
Brandon Saad

Stays in Vegas on One-Year Deal
Trent Frederic

Inks Eight-Year Extension
Josh Naylor

Exits Friday's Contest Early with Neck Stiffness
Emil Heineman

Shipped to the Islanders
Noah Dobson

Traded to Montreal
John Tavares

Agrees to Four-Year Extension with Maple Leafs
Sam Bennett

Signs Eight-Year Extension with Panthers
NYI

Islanders Select Matthew Schaefer With No. 1 Pick in NHL Draft
José Berríos

Jose Berrios Tosses Seven Scoreless Innings in Fourth Win
Nick Martinez

Flirts With No-Hitter, Settles for Win
Gary Sánchez

Gary Sanchez Homers, Reaches Five Times in Onslaught
Trea Turner

Blasts Two Homers, Steals Base
Los Angeles Angels

Ron Washington to Remain on Medical Leave for Rest of the Season
Aaron Rodgers

Roman Wilson Could Fit Nicely With Aaron Rodgers
Josh Simmons

on Schedule to Open the Year as a Starter
Micah Parsons

Contract Length an Issue for Cowboys, Micah Parsons
Denver Broncos

Broncos Unsure How Their Running Back Room Will Look
Russell Wilson

Not the Only Leader in Giants Clubhouse
Jihaad Campbell

to Begin at Inside Linebacker
Josh Conerly Jr.

to Play Right Tackle for Now
Tyleik Williams

Expected to Fill Big Role Right Away
Malaki Starks

Should Make an Immediate Impact
James Pearce Jr.

Impressing the Falcons
Jaxson Dart

has "Excellent" Spring
Charles Oliveira

Can Become A Two-Time Lightweight Champion
Ilia Topuria

A Favorite At UFC 317
Kai Kara-France

Can Become The New Flyweight Champion
Alexandre Pantoja

Set For Fourth Title Defense At UFC 317
Joshua Van

Looks To Extend His Win Streak
Brandon Royval

Looks For His Third Win In A Row
Renato Moicano

Returns At UFC 317
Beneil Dariush

An Underdog At UFC 317
Payton Talbott

Looks To Bounce Back
Felipe Lima

Set To Open Up UFC 317 Main Card
Daniil Tarasov

Panthers Bring in Daniil Tarasov
Frederick Gaudreau

Kraken Pick Up Frederick Gaudreau From Wild
Michael Thorbjornsen

Returns in Detroit at Rocket Classic
Adam Hadwin

Could Struggle Over the Weekend in Detroit
Cam Davis

Hopes Detroit Magic Can Spark Turnaround
Matt Wallace

a Boom-or-Bust Option at Rocket Classic
Joel Dahmen

Not Cutting it Lately
Michael Kim

Searching for Spark at Rocket Classic
Rasmus Hojgaard

a High-Ceiling Play in Rocket Classic
Matt McCarty

a Wild Card Heading into Detroit
Emiliano Grillo

Rolling into the Summer Season
Rickie Fowler

Looking for More Magic at Rocket Classic
Wyndham Clark

Brings High Upside to Detroit Golf Club
Max Greyserman

Could Make Noise at Rocket Classic
Akshay Bhatia

a Strong Value Play at Rocket Classic
Eric Cole

Hoping for Better Times at Rocket Classic
Beau Hossler

Searching for Form at Rocket Classic
PGA

Byeong Hun An in Good Form Heading into Rocket Classic
Cameron Young

Looking For Redemption and Possible First Career Victory in Detroit
Collin Morikawa

is The Headliner This Week in Detroit For Good Reason
Si Woo Kim

Back in Competition After Last Week's Withdrawal
PGA

Alex Noren Finishes Tied For 30th at Travelers Championship
Kurt Kitayama

Misses The Cut at RBC Canadian Open
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF