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Frank looks at five sneaky fantasy baseball waiver wire pickups for starting pitchers in Week 6 (2025) off to hot starts and if they can sustain their success.
We're diving into five pitchers who have exceeded expectations so far, including JP Sears, Matthew Liberatore, Shane Smith, Tyler Anderson, and Ben Lively. Each of these starters has performed well in ERA, but we're going to take a closer look to see if they can sustain their success in this category.
What's appealing here is that each of these pitchers is not often highly coveted by your league mates, giving us an opportunity to find sneaky fantasy baseball waiver wire pickups here.
Can these hot pitchers sustain their success? Let's find out by examining advanced metrics like SIERA and considering track record and pitch mix.
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JP Sears, Athletics
Sears has a 2.94 ERA and 1.07 WHIP, 21.7 K%, and 4.3 BB% in 33.2 innings. The veteran lefty has been rolling lately, allowing two ER or fewer in three consecutive outings. Despite the strong start, this is a pitcher who has put up a 4.35+ ERA in each of his two seasons, which makes most pessimistic about his rest-of-season outlook.
The biggest development here has been the improved control, as Sears has trimmed his walk rate by 2.2% while increasing his strikeout rate by 3.6%. We've seen Sears use his slider 13% of the time, up from 8.4% last year. This has helped because it's a pitch with a 33.3% whiff rate and .318 xwOBA. Using this pitch more often could help sustain the strikeout gains.
These improvements have resulted in a career-high 3.79 SIERA so far, which is good news because it's an advanced metric that supports this strong start. While it's unlikely that we will see a sub-3.00 ERA all year, this is an innings-eater with 170+ IP in both seasons. With the A's continuing to show improvement, Sears could also help with wins.
The best way to use Sears is as a streamer in the right matchup, but if you're in a deeper league, you can hold him and stash him on your bench in more difficult spots. There's a good chance that we will see a career year from Sears this season.
Matthew Liberatore, St. Louis Cardinals
Over his last 3 G, Matthew Liberatore has leaned heavily on his slider, making it his primary offering
Hitters counts, first 2 G v last 3:
SL%: 15.4% ➡️ 29.3% 📈
SLWhiff%: 25.0% ➡️ 44.4% 📈
FFSink%: 59.0% ➡️ 39.1% 📉He added a tick in SL velo while sacrificing just 1" of depth pic.twitter.com/eJvdI2pcF8
— Jacob (@JacobE_STL) April 26, 2025
Liberatore has posted a 3.44 ERA and 0.97 WHIP with a 22.6 K% and 2.3 BB% in 34 IP. The 25-year-old lefty has held opponents to two ER or fewer in four consecutive starts. This is a young pitcher with a poor track record so far, which makes fantasy baseball players less inclined to believe in a breakout without seeing stronger results.
I love the elite command so far, as Liberatore has improved his walk rate from 7.8% to 2.3%, which is elite. A much-improved four-seamer has helped this, which has allowed a .259 xwOBA this season, compared to .397 last year. In other words, hitters are making weak contact against this pitch after smacking it around last year.
If we look under the hood, we see that Liberatore has an impressive 3.17 SIERA this year. That's a great sign that supports a potential breakout. Remember that this lefty was once considered a top prospect, so there's a chance he's finally putting it all together.
With that in mind, there's some long-term appeal with Liberatore here. While there's a chance he'll be shut down due to innings at some point -- only 86 IP last year -- you have to ride the wave during this strong start. Don't be surprised if he sticks on your roster all year.
Shane Smith, Chicago White Sox
Shane Smith, Disgusting 92mph Changeup. 🤮
1st MLB K. And absolutely filthy. pic.twitter.com/qnzhKYLZLD
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) April 1, 2025
Smith has surpassed expectations in his rookie year, registering a 2.23 ERA and 1.08 WHIP with a 19.5 K% and 9.0 BB% in 32.1 IP. While the 10.5 K-BB% is underwhelming, you have to love how this first-year starter has given up two ER or fewer in five of six starts. Pitching for the abysmal White Sox also helps make Smith less appealing to your league mates, so he's a sneaky pickup.
What I like about Smith is that he has an 11.3% swinging-strike rate, which indicates that we could see an uptick in punch-outs moving forward, as he deserves better than his current sub-20% strikeout rate. This righty has five pitches in his arsenal, including a changeup (35.2% whiff rate) and curveball (83.3% whiff rate). It would be nice if Smith used his curveball more than 7.7% of the time, but this gives him a weapon vs lefties (80.6% of his overall usage comes vs. southpaws).
While the 4.30 SIERA indicates that Smith deserves much worse than a 2.23 ERA, his diverse arsenal could help him sustain long-term value. Remember, this is a rookie, so there's a chance that he can get better as the season goes along.
Like Liberatore, Smith has long-term appeal when you consider his pitch mix. If you're in a deeper league, make sure that the White Sox righty is not left on the wire.
Tyler Anderson, Los Angeles Angels
Anderson has been a dependable veteran, including a 2.67 ERA and 1.04 WHIP with a 19.7 K% and 10.2 BB% in 33.2 IP. The former Dodger has given up two ER or fewer in four of his last five starts. Anderson has always been viewed as a streamer, but he's a bit underrated, putting up a 3.81 ERA and 1.29 WHIP in 179.1 IP last year.
While there haven't been any notable improvements that would suggest a career year is on the way, this pitcher's swinging-strike rate (12.6%) is much higher than his strikeout rate (19.7%), so perhaps we can see an uptick there. However, don't be too hopeful because both rates align with career norms.
With that said, even if Anderson won't show improvement in season-long strikeout rate, that high-end SwStr% indicates that he has nice upside in the right matchup. We've often seen this, including two double-digit strikeout games last season.
Even though wins will be hard to come by on the Angels, there's a slight chance that Anderson can be moved to a contender at the trade deadline. Either way, this is an innings-eater who has shown that he can outperform in ERA as recently as last year, so he's worth a look in deeper formats.
Ben Lively, Cleveland Guardians
Lively has registered a 3.72 ERA and 1.27 WHIP with a 16.9 K% and 7.4 BB% in 36.1 IP. While the strikeouts haven't been there, which limits his upside, this is still a pitcher that you can fire up in the right matchup. We've seen Lively put up a 3.81 ERA in 151 IP last year, so perhaps this is another pitcher who can consistently outperform his advanced stats (4.78 SIERA this season).
We've seen Lively hold opposing teams to zero ER in three starts this season, including the Twins, Pirates, and White Sox. These are clear examples of how Lively can give you a quality outing as a streamer.
The problem is that the strikeouts are virtually non-existent, as this pitcher doesn't miss bats, as highlighted by a 6.2% swinging-strike rate. Perhaps Lively should use his cutter more, as this is his best pitch in terms of whiff rate (27.3%).
In other words, it's unlikely that Lively can keep a sub-4.00 ERA, but you can use him as a streamer when he has an exploitable matchup. He's got a two-start week coming up, so if you're in a deeper league looking for IP, ride with Lively. Remember that one of his starts is at the Reds, but you can use him at home against the Brewers.
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