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We are back with prop picks from Sleeper for Thursday night football! This week we have the Bears (0-4) taking on the Commanders (2-2).
The Bears are coming off of a 28-7 collapse to arguably the second-worst team in the league. Meanwhile, the Commanders have come back to earth after a scorching 2-0 start to their season.
My name is Ellis Johnson and I have been writing for RotoBaller for four years. You can catch my weekly Fantasy Pie Shop articles on RotoBaller (trust me, it’s as fun as it sounds). RotoBaller is coming out with weekly DFS plays and lots of great analysis with their DFS pass. Be sure to check it out as the team has been crushing it so far this year!
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Justin Fields (QB, CHI)
Under 193.5 passing yards
One of the most disappointing storylines of this season has been Justin Fields. Whether it is because he is "over-coached" or naturally a bad passer, there is something not working in the Windy City.
Through the first three weeks, Fields completed seven of 22 and three interceptions on passes 10+ yards downfield. Suddenly, he faced the Broncos abysmal defense and went 16 of 17 for 231 yards and three touchdowns in the first half. Unfortunately for Fields, the Commanders are a substantially better defense than the Broncos.
I expect the Commanders' elite defensive line will put pressure on Fields and limit his ability in the passing game. To me, this sounds like a game where he turns back the clock with his legs.
Brian Robinson Jr. (RB, WAS)
Over 75.5 total yards
Robinson Jr. has been excellent this season. It seems his impressive season has gone relatively unnoticed, largely due to the lack of interest in the Commanders. However, this game on primetime is a perfect opportunity to put the league on notice.
This season Robinson Jr. is third in rushing yards at the position and third in receiving yards. That's impressive. This week he faces a Bears team that is allowing over 100 yards rushing and 56.7 receiving yards to the position each week. Considering he is clearly this team's lead back, in a game where they should be ahead, 75.5 yards seems shockingly low.
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D.J. Moore (WR, CHI)
Over 3.5 receptions
Yes, I have selected the under on Field's passing yards and the over on Moore's receptions. Although these two may contradict each other, Moore has been clearly Fields' top target. With seven, six, and nine targets in his last three games, he has 11 more targets than the next receiver.
This Commanders' team is excellent at pressuring the QB, ultimately forcing Fields to find his favorite target. After all, we just saw this with Jalen Hurts and A.J. Brown who exploded for 175 yards and two scores. In a game where the Bears expect to be playing from behind, Moore should be a lock for 6+ targets.
If it was anyone other than Fields under center that would be an easy path to four receptions. Unfortunately, it is Fields throwing the ball. I'm banking on the volume to be there for Moore and hoping Feilds' accuracy won't ruin this prop.
Logan Thomas (TE, WAS)
Over 28.5 yards
This team loves to use its tight ends. To much disappointment of Jahan Dotson and Terry McLaurin fantasy managers, these tight ends get a lot of targets. This team is eighth in targets to the position and now faces a Bears team that is allowing 53 yards per game to the position.
Although all three tight ends on this team get involved, Logan Thomas is the leader of this group. After all, he's cracked 40 yards in two of his three games and had 22 in the other. It may feel gross, but Thomas is in line for a relatively decent night this Thursday.
If you are to package these props, you will receive 9.19x your money. That’s a pretty penny if you ask me. Thank you for checking out my work, be sure to read my prop picks for this weekend as well!
Disclaimer: Please gamble responsibly. I am writing this as a thought-provoking guide that can hopefully help individuals make their own decisions.
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