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Sleeper NFL DFS prop picks for the Divisional Round Sunday Slate (January 21, 2024). Use Dan's NFL over/under props recommendations to win on Sleeper.
Welcome to our Sleeper NFL DFS prop picks for the Sunday Slate of Divisional Weekend -- Buccaneers vs. Lions and Chiefs vs. Bills.
Our Sleeper DFS prop picks finished 7-4 last weekend, bringing our season record to 113-84.
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Divisional Round DFS Prop Picks: Sunday Slate
Josh Allen OVER 42.5 Rushing Yards
Allen has been everything for the Bills this season, as evidenced by a four total touchdown performance last week against the Steelers that included a 52-yard highlight reel rushing score. With difficult matchups for much of the Bills receiving corps, Allen will likely be relied upon to make magic happen with his legs on Sunday.
The 27-year-old quarterback has run for at least 54 rushing yards in six of his nine career playoff games and enters this game on a streak of two straight contests with 67 or more yards on the ground. In his last two meetings with the Chiefs in the postseason, he has rushed for totals of 88 and 68 yards.
With snow in the forecast on Sunday night, conditions will be optimal for Allen to continue crushing his rushing prop. I would take this bet up to 45.5.
Clyde Edwards-Helaire OVER 14.5 Rushing & Receiving Yards
Edwards-Helaire has completely ceded the starting role in the Chiefs offense to power rusher Isiah Pacheco this season; however, he has carved out a dependable role for himself in recent weeks and is showing value on his combined yardage prop this week.
CEH took over the RB2 role in Week 12 and hasn’t looked back. He has seven or more touches in four of his last five, averaging 50.6 total yards per game over that span. The Bills have been below average in fantasy points and total yards given up to opposing running backs this year. In a cold-weather game against a quick-strike Bills offense, there will likely be plenty of opportunity for Edwards-Helaire to top 15 total yards.
Rotoballer's Proptimizer tool gives this prop a strong 27.1% edge, with a Sharp App projected line of 24.7 total yards. PFF is in line with this pick as well, giving it a 70.2% likelihood of going over.
Mike Evans OVER 70.5 Receiving Yards
The Buccaneers vs. Lions matchup is likely to be an aerial attack for both teams, with both defenses in the bottom six in passing yards against this season. There are a handful of juicy receiver matchups in this one, but none better than that of Mike Evans.
Detroit has been particularly poor against outside receivers (bottom-five in yards per target and yards per game), where Evans lines up 70% of the time. The Lions also deploy man coverage at a top-10 rate. Mike Evans has been among the NFL's most efficient receivers against man coverage this season, producing 1.00 fantasy points per route run (first) and 3.19 yards per route run (12th). He maintains an 88.1 PFF receiving grade against man coverage (tied for seventh).
Evans is projected to line up most often against CB Kindle Vildor. PFF gives Evans a 95.1 matchup grade against Vildor, the third-best grade for any receiver this weekend. You can’t go wrong with Evans or Godwin this weekend.
Other Recommendations:
- Baker Mayfield OVER 258.5 passing yards
- Rachaad White UNDER 55.5 rushing yards
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