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Sleeper NFL DFS prop picks for the Divisional Round Saturday Slate (January 20, 2024). Use Dan's NFL over/under props recommendations to win on Sleeper.
Welcome to our Sleeper NFL DFS prop picks for the Saturday Slate of Divisional Weekend. Divisional Weekend starts with two matchups, Texans vs. Ravens and Packers vs. 49ers.
Our Sleeper DFS prop picks finished 7-4 last weekend (64%). We’ll look to build on that with our top prop picks for Saturday’s playoff matchups.
Sleeper offers some of the best and easiest-to-win NFL DFS games in the industry. Sleeper DFS works just like regular player prop betting -- there are no large-field tournaments to get lost in. You're not playing against other people; you're just playing against the projections. Here are a few of our favorite prop picks for Saturday's games on Sleeper DFS.
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Divisional Round DFS Prop Picks: Saturday Slate
Lamar Jackson OVER 52.5 Rushing Yards
Jackson is an excellent bet to cash his rushing over on Saturday at home against the Texans. The 27-year-old averages an insane 91.8 rushing yards per game over his four-game playoff career. This year, he has averaged 54.4 rushing yards per game at home compared to 48.3 on the road.
On Saturday, he faces off against a Houston defense that ranked 28th in the NFL in rushing yards allowed to quarterbacks this season. They have also allowed the most rushing touchdowns to quarterbacks (seven), making Jackson’s anytime touchdown prop an interesting play as well.
In a cold-weather game at home in which his team is favored by 9.5 points, trust Jackson to move the ball with his legs this weekend.
Devin Singletary UNDER 16.5 Receiving Yards
While Singletary has been the unquestioned lead back for the Texans since Week 9, his contributions have largely been on the ground. The fifth-year pro has been held to 13 receiving yards or less in 15 of 18 games this season (83%), making the under on his 16.5 receiving line look quite favorable.
Singletary’s inflated line seems to be accounting for additional receiving work with rookie WR Noah Brown out; however, that has not typically been the case to this point. In the seven games Singletary has played without Brown in the lineup this year, he has only topped 11 receiving yards once. He has also been ceding third-down and passing-down work to RB Dare Ogunbowale, who has averaged 22.8% of the offensive snaps over the team’s last seven games.
Even if Singletary gets more involved in the passing game on Saturday, he has averaged 5.0 yards per reception on screen passes and 6.4 yards per reception overall. This means he’ll likely need three or more catches to hit his receiving yardage over. He’s only done this twice in his 18 games this year.
Gus Edwards OVER 3.5 Receiving Yards
Edwards had his most productive season as a pro this year, finishing with career highs in both rushing and receiving yardage while tallying 41.5% of Baltimore’s offensive snaps in 2023. With an average of 10.6 receiving yards per game this season, his 3.5 receiving prop is showing a ton of value this week.
Houston has given up the 13th-most receiving yards to running backs so far this season (an average of 34.1 receiving per game to opposing RBs). With the Ravens favored by 9.5 points, Edwards is expected to see a heavier complement of snaps. He saw the highest receiving production this season in wins of between 8-14 points, averaging 17.5 receiving yards per game in such contests.
Rotoballer's Proptimizer tool gives this prop a strong 30.2% edge, with a Sharp App projected line of 7.2 receiving yards. PFF is in line with this pick as well, giving it a 64.6% likelihood of going over.
Other Recommendations:
- Jordan Love OVER 1.5 passing touchdowns
- Romeo Doubs OVER 36.5 receiving yards
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