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Our Sleeper.com NFL DFS prop picks - over/under props for Week 10 early slate. Ellis' favorite Sunday prop bets on Sleeper.com.
Last week I released two Sleeper prop picks articles. I am very excited to say we went 7-2 on our selections, building on our 30-18 across all articles this season.
This week we attack the early slate of games with my five favorite prop picks. These games include the two teams coming off their byes in the 49ers vs. Jaguars, a red-hot Bengals team facing the offensive rookie of the year C.J. Stroud, and a defensive duel between the Ravens and Browns.
My name is Ellis Johnson and I have been writing for RotoBaller for four years. You can catch my weekly Fantasy Pie Shop articles on RotoBaller (trust me, it’s as fun as it sounds). RotoBaller is coming out with weekly DFS plays and lots of great analysis with their DFS pass. Be sure to check it out as the team has been crushing it so far this year!
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C.J. Stroud (QB, HOU) Under 260.5 total yards
Texans @ Bengals
We are starting this article firing out of the gate. Absolutely I am calling for one of the hottest players in the NFL cooling off in Week 10. Let’s be honest, that 470 yards and five touchdowns were legendary by Stroud. In fact, they might as well hand him offensive rookie of the year right now.
This week he faces a Bengals defense that Lou Anarumo has buzzing right now. This team has allowed an average of 220 passing yards per game, including holding Josh Allen to 258 passing on 44 attempts.
The Bengals have also been exploitable on the ground. I expect this team will somewhat revert to its run-first play calling that we had seen over the first eight weeks. As a result, I think Stroud will be held in check this week.
Aaron Jones (RB, GB) Over 52.5 yards or 82.5 total
Packers @ Steelers
Aaron Jones is back. The Walter Peyton Man of the Year nominee has become the leader of this young team. With the inexperience on both sides of the ball, this team needs a veteran to make timely plays.
Last week we saw Matt Lafleur lean heavily on Jones, as he led the team in targets and had 20 rushing attempts. Arguably more importantly, he received the goalline work for the first time this season.
This week the Packers take on a competitive Steelers team that is allowing over 130 yards on the ground to the RB position. Jones should receive enough volume and has the big play ability to comfortably find his way to 53 rushing yards.
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Baker Mayfield (QB, TB) Over 243.5 total yards
Titans @ Buccaneers
This game has shoot-out written all over it. These two QBs aren’t afraid to sling it around the yard and both of these secondaries are struggling.
The Titans are allowing the fourth most receptions and 5th most yards allowed to WRs. Additionally, this Titans team is allowing nearly 300 passing per game. Will Levis can make this a shootout and Baker Mayfield has all the weapons to fire back. This team has struggled all year to run the ball, and against the Titans, they might have negative rushing yards. This is a perfect game script for Mayfield to rack up his yardage total.
Justin Tucker (K, BAL) Over 1.5 Made FGs
Browns @ Ravens
Even though the Ravens are balling out, Tucker has seemingly had a “down” year. Even still, we all know Tucker is the G.O.A.T of kicking.
Over his last two games, he has attempted 2 or more field goals. I expect he’ll get a lot of work as this is going to be a defensive duel. The Cleveland Browns and Baltimore Ravens have allowed the fewest and second-fewest yards per game respectively. It could be a big week for everyone’s favorite opera singer.
Zay Flowers (WR, BAL) Under 42.5 yards
Browns @ Ravens
We’re sticking in the same matchup for this one. Last week Odell Beckham Jr. and Rashod Bateman had season highs in targets last week and flowers only had one target. It’s hard to have much belief in their passing volume, but it’s not a coincidence Flowers has been held under 20 yards in each of his last two games.
As I mentioned with Justin Tucker, these defenses don’t allow a lot of yards. Even though this Ravens team has looked unstoppable, the Browns have allowed under 100 yards to WRs a game. That’s impressive.
Disclaimer: Please gamble responsibly. I am writing this as a thought-provoking guide that can hopefully help individuals make their own decisions.
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