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Through three weeks, we finally have an idea of how the league is panning out this season. However, this week there are plenty of matchups that seem to have the ability to make or break a team’s season. Last week, we went 2-2 in our prop selections, which isn't too bad but let's do better this week!
A loss this week from the Bengals who face a tough Titans squad, or if the Chargers fall to their divisional rivals, could instantly make last week’s success irrelevant. On the other hand, which teams can stay hot? Can the Texans follow up their upset win with a win against the Steelers? Will Miami continue their offensive prowess against their divisional rivals? These are just some of the many storylines we have heading into Week Four.
My name is Ellis Johnson and I have been writing for RotoBaller for four years. You can catch my weekly Fantasy Pie Shop articles on RotoBaller (trust me, it’s as fun as it sounds). RotoBaller is coming out with weekly DFS plays and a lot of player prop picks for sites like Sleeper. Be sure to check it out as the team has been crushing it so far this year!
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Christian Kirk (WR, JAX)
Over 4.5 receptions, Jaguars vs. Falcons (London)
After starting the season slow, we have seen Kirk return to his WR-one form from last year. A big part of this is Zay Jones being ruled out for this game. Plus, the Falcons don't have a sufficient corner behind their star A.J. Terrell. As a result, I am expecting a big week from the slot for Kirk.
Having said that, it’s always scary selecting props against the Falcons. This is not necessarily because they are a shutdown defense, but they don’t allow their opponents to run a lot of offensive plays. As a result, they are allowing the fourth fewest passing yards and the 18th fewest rushing yards per game. It might not be a great matchup, but this Falcons team in vulnerable in the slot. I am confident that Trevor Lawrence will be looking for Ridley early and often.
Joe Mixon (RB, CIN)
Under 51.5 rushing yards, Bengals at Titans
We all saw that Joe Burrow is playing football on one leg, so why am I low on the run game? Well, we also put a lot of emphasis on pass protection, with Trayveon Williams stepping in as this team’s main pass pro back. I have a feeling Williams and Chris Evans will be seeing the field more than usual in this matchup.
This leads me to my second point, the matchup. This Titans’ run defense is no joke. They are allowing under 70 rushing yards a game, however, are allowing over 300 passing yards and 1.5 passing touchdowns per game. It will be interesting to see if a hobbled Joe Burrow can take advantage of the Titans' “pass funnel” defense.
Mixon has never been an efficient runner in football. I also expect him to be splitting touches on clear passing-down situations. Although the attempts will be there, he’ll need more than the Lions’ share to crack 51 yards against this defense.
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D’Andre Swift (RB, PHI)
Over 64.5 rushing yards. Eagles vs. Commanders
My most confident prop of this list is a case of the line-makers being slow to the party. Despite basically only playing two games, Swift is second in the league in rushing yards. That’s how remarkable, this stretch has been.
Absolutely, this Eagles line is helping with his success, but we can’t ignore the matchups. In the two other games (vs. the Vikings and Bears), the Buccaneers allowed 41 and 67 total rushing yards respectively. The Vikings (vs. Buccaneers and Chargers), allowed 73 and 30 total rushing yards respectively. When Swift faced these teams he single-handedly dropped 175 rushing yards vs. the Vikings and 130 vs. the Bucs.
In Week Four he takes on a Commanders team that is allowing the tenth most rushing yards to the position. You can also expect Swift to continue to take over this backfield if he continues his success, meaning this is an absolute smash of a prop.
Adam Thielen (WR, CAR)
Over 4.5 receptions, Panthers vs. Vikings
Some call Thielen a ghost, others call him a PPR machine. Although both are true, this line is very juicy for the seasoned veteran.
Thielen has combined for 23 targets in his last two games and managed to score a touchdown in both. He now faces a Minnesota team that is allowing the seventh most passing yards per game.
This Vikings defense can be exploited, as we just saw Keenan Allen have 18 receptions for over 200 yards. Of course, Thielen is no Allen, and Bryce Young is not Justin Herbert, but this line should easily hit the over. Especially in a game where the Panthers are home underdogs and may be playing from behind. In case all of that isn't enough to give you confidence, it's a revenge game against a team he spent a decade playing for.
Disclaimer: Please gamble responsibly. I am writing this as a thought-provoking guide that can hopefully help individuals make their own decisions.
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