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Our Sleeper.com NFL DFS prop picks - over/under props for Week 12 thanksgiving slate. Ellis' favorite prop bets on Sleeper.com.
Happy Thanksgiving to all my American friends. The NFL decided to turn itself on its head last week. With stars going down to injury and plenty of ridiculous upsets, this league is harder than ever to predict.
I released three Thursday articles with prop selections for each game. All in all, we went 2-2 in each game, totaling 6-6 on our Thanksgiving selections. That builds on our 39-38 record across all articles this season.
My name is Ellis Johnson and I have been writing for RotoBaller for four years. You can catch my weekly Fantasy Pie Shop articles on RotoBaller (trust me, it’s as fun as it sounds). RotoBaller is coming out with weekly DFS plays and lots of great analysis with their DFS pass. Be sure to check it out as the team has been crushing it so far this year!
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Bijan Robinson (RB, ATL)
Over 18.5 receiving yards, Saints @ Falcons
Bijan managers have one last hope for him to perform at an elite fantasy level. The post-bye week rookie bump has come through for rookies such as Jaxon Smith-Njigba and Tank Dell. Before the bye, Arthur Smith gave Bijan a sign of life, running him for 22 attempts and a goalline opportunity.
This week he faces a stingy Saints defense that is allowing the ninth fewest rushing yards to the position. I lean toward the receiving line in this game as Desmond Ridder is back under center. When Ridder was under center at the start of the season, Bijan had five games with five or more targets over the first six weeks. If he receives that volume, he has the talent to easily surpass 18 yards.
Ja’Marr Chase (WR, CIN)
Over 5.5 Receptions, Steelers @ Bengals
As a Bengals fan, I am gutted by this season. However, the season isn’t over and maybe Jake Browning can be a top 25 QB. That won’t take a lot since we currently have Tim Boyle, Aidan O’Connell, Tommy Devito, Dorian Thompson-Robinson, and Kenny Pickett starting this week.
Anyways, when this offense isn’t chugging, they turn to Chase. More specifically, they start putting Chase in the slot and peppering him with targets. Whether it’s screens, short-outs, or slants, Chase will find a way to get open. The Steelers are allowing 13 receptions per game to the WR position and the fifth most yards. I expect the volume will be there for Chase to have an eight-plus reception day.
Jaylen Warren (RB, PIT)
Over 48.5 rushing yards, Steelers @ Bengals
If you followed my work last week, I picked the Under for Warren’s yards. If it wasn’t for a 74-yard TD, it was looking promising. This week is a completely different story as the Bengals love to give up explosive plays on the ground.
Warren has over 85 rushing yards in each of his last three games, with two games against great run defenses. As Warren slowly starts to take over this backfield, the opportunities will be there in a great matchup to easily surpass 50 rushing yards. I love his ability to break big plays and he has been receiving enough work to grind out 50+ rushing yards if it comes to that.
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Chris Boswell (K, PIT)
Over 1.5 Made Field Goals, Steelers @ Bengals
Divisional game, with two backup caliber QBs, this game will be loaded with field goals. Boswell has been one of the best kickers this season only missing one FG attempt. With decent weather, this is looking like a perfect day for both kickers to have over 1.5 FGs.
Mike Evans (WR, TB)
Over 4.5 receptions yards, Buccaneers @ Colts
I am unreasonably excited about this game. With two terrible secondaries, Gardner Minshew and Baker Mayfield will be a lot of fun to watch air it out.
Evans has been incredible this season and has operated as Baker’s clear top target each week. The Colts are allowing the sixth most yards and 10th most receptions per game to the WR position. I expect both these QBs will be hucking, allowing Evans to surpass four receptions with ease.
Michael Pittman Jr. (WR, IND)
Over 5.5 receptions, Buccaneers @ Colts
As I said above, these secondaries are BAD. The Buccaneers are allowing the most yards against the WR position with 198.9 yards/game. Much like Evans, Pittman is the clear top target on this team.
I expect both these QBs will be slinging it all game to keep up with one another. If you would rather take Pittman over 71.5 yards, I wouldn’t blame you. I think his usage is more reliable, so I’m taking the receptions in this matchup.
*Updated* Total: 5-1
Thanks for reading. Check out my prop picks for the second Thursday game this week!
Disclaimer: Please gamble responsibly. I am writing this as a thought-provoking guide that can hopefully help individuals make their own decisions.
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